What is BlackRock, Inc.'s TTM Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) reported 14.6% TTM ROIC in FY2025.

What is BlackRock, Inc.'s economic moat?

BlackRock, Inc. has a Wide economic moat. iShares ETF scale, Aladdin's near-monopoly in institutional risk tech, and a growing alternatives platform create a uniquely multi-pillar, self-reinforcing competitive position.

What is the bull case for BlackRock, Inc.?

BlackRock, Inc. bull case: Alternatives AUM scales to $400B+ via HPS + organic; multiple re-rates to 22-25x, adding $300/share value with Blackstone-comparable valuation

What is the bear case for BlackRock, Inc.?

BlackRock, Inc. bear case: Global equity market correction -25% drops AUM to $10.5T; fee revenue -$2B; FY2027 adj EPS falls to $50; multiple compresses to 14x = $700

What are the top catalysts for BlackRock, Inc.?

Top catalysts: HPS deal close (H2 2026) confirms alternatives $400B+ platform trajectory; Aladdin AWS partnership rollout drives enterprise wins and ACV growth toward $2.5B+; Fink succession announcement; smooth transition positive, abrupt departure -10-15%.

What are the top risks to BlackRock, Inc.?

Top risks: Equity market -25% correction drops AUM and fee revenue sharply; Private credit default cycle on HPS portfolio impairs alternatives thesis; Fink succession creates temporary multiple compression and client uncertainty.

What is BlackRock, Inc.'s operating margin?

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) reports 44.1% operating margin (FY2025). Gross margin 83%. FCF margin 30%.

What is BlackRock, Inc.'s net debt?

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) carries net debt of $2.0B as of FY2025.

Who are BlackRock, Inc.'s main competitors?

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) directly competes with Vanguard, State Street (STT), Fidelity.

How does BlackRock, Inc. make money?

BlackRock, Inc. (BLK)'s top revenue segments: Management Fees (73%), Advisory & Other (14%), Technology Services (Aladdin) (8%) (FY2025).

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Investment Memorandum · Preview

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

BlackRock, Inc.

BLK

FAVORABLE

May 22, 2026

Research Conclusion

BlackRock is the world's largest asset manager ($14T AUM) pivoting from traditional asset manager to blended alternatives + Aladdin SaaS platform. At 16.4x FY2026E adj EPS, market gives partial credit for transformation. PWFV $1,070 (+19%); base case $1,260 (+40%); bear $715 (-21%). HPS close + Aladdin AWS partnership + alternatives scaling provide multiple catalyst paths. Larry Fink succession (age 73) is primary asymmetric tail risk.

Company Overview & Moat Assessment

World's largest asset manager with $14.01T AUM (FY2025). Four revenue streams: management fees (~73%), performance fees (~5%), Aladdin technology services (~8%, $1.9B growing 30%), other (~14%). iShares ETF franchise ~$4.2T. Aladdin platform monitors ~$25T. Two transformative initiatives: GIP acquisition ($100B+ infrastructure, closed Oct 2024) and pending HPS Investment Partners acquisition (~$150B private credit). Together push alternatives AUM from ~$200B to $400B+ by FY2028.

▲ Bull Case

◆Alternatives AUM scales to $400B+ via HPS + organic; multiple re-rates to 22-25x, adding $300/share value with Blackstone-comparable valuation
◆Aladdin transitions to true SaaS via AWS partnership; ACV grows from $1.9B to $2.5B+ by FY2027; standalone SaaS valuation 25-30x = $65-80B segment value
◆AUM compounds 7-8%/yr through global equity bull + iShares ETF flows; reaches $20T+ by FY2030; adj EPS reaches $87 FY2030 with operating leverage

▼ Bear Case

◆Global equity market correction -25% drops AUM to $10.5T; fee revenue -$2B; FY2027 adj EPS falls to $50; multiple compresses to 14x = $700
◆HPS deal closes but private credit defaults emerge in 2027-2028 cycle; $1-2B portfolio writedowns; alts thesis questioned; multiple stays compressed at 16x
◆Larry Fink succession creates uncertainty; founder departure triggers -10-15% multiple compression; key institutional client departures possible

Primary Debate on Wall Street

“The debate is whether BLK deserves traditional asset manager multiple (12-15x) or blended alternatives GP + SaaS platform multiple (20-25x). Bulls cite strategic pivot and transformation; bears cite execution risk and macro sensitivity of AUM-based revenue.”

Top Catalysts

◆HPS deal close (H2 2026) confirms alternatives $400B+ platform trajectory
◆Aladdin AWS partnership rollout drives enterprise wins and ACV growth toward $2.5B+
◆Fink succession announcement; smooth transition positive, abrupt departure -10-15%
◆Quarterly earnings beats with EPS above consensus and AUM growth fuel re-rating momentum

Top Risks

◆Equity market -25% correction drops AUM and fee revenue sharply
◆Private credit default cycle on HPS portfolio impairs alternatives thesis
◆Fink succession creates temporary multiple compression and client uncertainty
◆HPS deal complications delay alternatives AUM trajectory
◆Aladdin SaaS growth stalls, eroding premium valuation

Full Memo Continues

5 more sections, locked

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Valuation Range & DCF
Base/bull/bear fair-value range, WACC, terminal growth, sensitivity to revenue + margin assumptions.
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Risk/Reward Assessment
Position-sizing framework with explicit upside/downside skew and entry conditions.
●
Management & Capital Allocation
Multi-year capital-allocation track record, incentive alignment, and management readout.
●
Monitoring Framework
What to watch each quarter — leading indicators and inflection signals tracked by the analyst.
●
Unresolved Questions
Open analyst questions and follow-up research items — the depth signal.

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