What is Bristol-Myers Squibb's TTM Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)?

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) reported 19% TTM ROIC in FY2025.

What is Bristol-Myers Squibb's economic moat?

Bristol-Myers Squibb has a Narrow economic moat. Strong patent-protected franchises in oncology and cardiology, but LOE cliff through 2028 is structurally narrowing the moat.

What is the bull case for Bristol-Myers Squibb?

Bristol-Myers Squibb bull case: Cobenfy reaches $4B+ peak (vs. consensus $2.6-2.8B); ADEPT-2 succeeds end-2026: Q1 2026 $163M annualized run-rate $650M suggests 2-3x consensus by FY2028

What is the bear case for Bristol-Myers Squibb?

Bristol-Myers Squibb bear case: ADEPT-2 disappoints; Cobenfy stalls at $1.5-2B peak: Without Cobenfy, growth portfolio cannot bridge LOE; FY2028 EPS $3.75; stock declines to $35-40

What are the top catalysts for Bristol-Myers Squibb?

Top catalysts: Iberdomide PDUFA approval (Aug 2026) — CELMoD franchise validation; Cobenfy ADEPT-2 readout (End-2026) — Binary; positive signals $4B+ peak; Milvexian AF Phase 3 readout (2027-2028) — Binary; validates Eliquis-successor thesis.

What are the top risks to Bristol-Myers Squibb?

Top risks: ADEPT-2 fails or shows mixed efficacy (MEDIUM probability, HIGH impact) — Cobenfy thesis broken, FY2028 EPS $3.75; Milvexian fails both arms (MEDIUM probability, HIGH impact) — LOE bridge impaired, stock $25-30; Dividend cut (LOW-MEDIUM probability, HIGH impact) — yield thesis collapses, multiple compresses to 7x.

What is Bristol-Myers Squibb's operating margin?

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) reports 33.5% operating margin (FY2025). Gross margin 79%. FCF margin 27%.

What is Bristol-Myers Squibb's net debt?

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) carries net debt of $40.0B as of FY2025.

Who are Bristol-Myers Squibb's main competitors?

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) directly competes with Merck (MRK), Pfizer, AbbVie.

How does Bristol-Myers Squibb make money?

Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY)'s top revenue segments: Eliquis (anticoagulant) (30%), Opdivo (PD-1 IO) (19%), Revlimid (multiple myeloma) (7%) (FY2025).

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Investment Memorandum · Preview

For informational purposes only. Not investment advice.

Bristol-Myers Squibb

BMY

NEUTRAL

May 22, 2026

Research Conclusion

HOLD at ~$59. BMY trades at 9.3x FY2026E adj EPS and 11% FCF yield — pricing in a maximally negative LOE cliff scenario without crediting Cobenfy's Q1 2026 surge ($163M in one quarter vs. $155M FY2025 full-year) or Milvexian's asymmetric pipeline optionality. PWFV ~$65 (+10% over 3 years including dividends). The 4.2% dividend yield is doing the work; pure price appreciation is bounded. Position size should reflect the binary pipeline catalysts (ADEPT-2 end-2026; Milvexian 2027-2028).

Company Overview & Moat Assessment

Bristol-Myers Squibb is a top-7 global biopharmaceutical company with $48.2B revenue (FY2025). The investment thesis is dominated by the 2028 LOE cliff: legacy portfolio (Revlimid declining; Eliquis $16.5B with IRA -53% Medicare cut + 2028 US LOE; Opdivo with 2028 US LOE) faces $15-20B in at-risk revenue while the growth portfolio (Cobenfy from Karuna acquisition; Reblozyl; Camzyos for HCM; Breyanzi CAR-T; Opdivo Qvantig SC; Sotyktu) must replace it. Strategic acquisitions: Karuna ($14B for Cobenfy/KarXT), Mirati ($4.8B), RayzeBio (radiopharmaceuticals). Net debt $36B; FCF $13B/yr; dividend $2.48/yr (4.2% yield).

▲ Bull Case

◆Cobenfy reaches $4B+ peak (vs. consensus $2.6-2.8B); ADEPT-2 succeeds end-2026: Q1 2026 $163M annualized run-rate $650M suggests 2-3x consensus by FY2028
◆Milvexian succeeds in AF Phase 3 (2027-2028): Eliquis-successor with new chemical class; $3-5B peak addressable market
◆Pipeline bridges LOE cliff fully; FY2030 EPS recovers to $6.00+: Multiple re-rates from 9x to 13x as cliff narrative reverses; stock reaches $80+

▼ Bear Case

◆ADEPT-2 disappoints; Cobenfy stalls at $1.5-2B peak: Without Cobenfy, growth portfolio cannot bridge LOE; FY2028 EPS $3.75; stock declines to $35-40
◆Milvexian fails both AF and stroke Phase 3 readouts: Pipeline thesis impaired; Eliquis-successor not materializing; LOE cliff becomes permanent headwind
◆Dividend cut announced: Yield investors exit; multiple compresses to 7x; stock falls to $25-30; Dividend Aristocrat status lost

Primary Debate on Wall Street

“The debate is whether the pipeline can bridge the 2028 LOE cliff. Bulls cite Cobenfy momentum (Q1 2026 $163M revenue) and pipeline breadth; bears cite execution risk and historical Big Pharma difficulty in successfully bridging major product losses.”

Top Catalysts

◆Iberdomide PDUFA approval (Aug 2026) — CELMoD franchise validation
◆Cobenfy ADEPT-2 readout (End-2026) — Binary; positive signals $4B+ peak
◆Milvexian AF Phase 3 readout (2027-2028) — Binary; validates Eliquis-successor thesis

Top Risks

◆ADEPT-2 fails or shows mixed efficacy (MEDIUM probability, HIGH impact) — Cobenfy thesis broken, FY2028 EPS $3.75
◆Milvexian fails both arms (MEDIUM probability, HIGH impact) — LOE bridge impaired, stock $25-30
◆Dividend cut (LOW-MEDIUM probability, HIGH impact) — yield thesis collapses, multiple compresses to 7x

Full Memo Continues

5 more sections, locked

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Valuation Range & DCF
Base/bull/bear fair-value range, WACC, terminal growth, sensitivity to revenue + margin assumptions.
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Risk/Reward Assessment
Position-sizing framework with explicit upside/downside skew and entry conditions.
●
Management & Capital Allocation
Multi-year capital-allocation track record, incentive alignment, and management readout.
●
Monitoring Framework
What to watch each quarter — leading indicators and inflection signals tracked by the analyst.
●
Unresolved Questions
Open analyst questions and follow-up research items — the depth signal.

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