Glacier Bancorp, Inc.

▲ Bull Case

• ◆NIM reaches and sustains 4.00%+ by H2 2026 as management guided, driving FY 2026E EPS to $3.08+ vs. $2.45 consensus; the stock re-rates from 21x consensus P/E to 17x our-EPS basis, supporting a price target of $57–65/share by FY 2027
• ◆Texas Guaranty integration outperforms — loan book quality cleaner than diligence assumed, deposit retention >95%, cross-sell into GBCI products — validating the M&A strategy in a new geography and opening 1–2 additional Texas bolt-on acquisitions in 2027–2028
• ◆AOCI completes recovery to near-zero by FY 2027–2028, lifting TBV/share from $22.34 to $27+, and management announces first meaningful dividend raise since 2020 (target $1.50+ annualized), attracting incremental income-fund inflows and re-rating P/TBV to 2.1x → $57+

▼ Bear Case

• ◆CRE stress emerges as Mountain West real estate corrects from 40–60% pandemic-era appreciation; NCO rate climbs from 10bps to 35bps; provision build to 50bps of loans (~$110M) compresses FY 2026E EPS to $1.85, well below consensus; stock de-rates to 13x → $24/share
• ◆Texas Guaranty integration reveals hidden credit issues in the acquired $2.1B loan book by Q3 2026; provisioning surge + management credibility damage triggers de-rating; stock declines to $30–35 even before broader CRE concerns confirm
• ◆Fed implements aggressive rate cuts (200bps+) in response to economic slowdown; asset yields reprice down faster than deposit costs; NIM stalls at 3.65–3.70% and the 4% target slips to 2027 or later, frustrating the recovery thesis and prompting analyst downgrades

“The central GBCI debate: Is the premium 21x forward P/E (vs. KRX regional bank index at 11x) and 2.1x P/TBV (vs. peer median 1.1x) justified by the 41-year dividend streak, 12.6% CET1, and superior ROTCE — or is the premium pricing in too much of the NIM recovery while underweighting the CRE concentration and Texas integration tail risks? Bulls (DA Davidson, Hovde, Stephens) point to NIM trajectory confirmation, management's track record of conservative guidance, and the dividend streak as durable. Bears highlight that EPS at $1.99 (FY 2025) is still 30% below the $2.87 FY 2021 peak despite 17% share dilution, and that CRE >60% concentration leaves no margin of safety in a Mountain West real estate correction. Sell-side consensus is 'Moderate Buy' with average price target $54.75 — narrowly above current price.”

• ◆Q2 2026 NIM print targeting ≥3.92% — first confirmation of glide-path-to-4% thesis
• ◆Q2–Q3 2026 Texas Guaranty integration commentary — first transparent assessment of $2.1B loan book quality
• ◆Q4 2026 FY 2026E EPS print resolving $0.63 consensus gap (our $3.08 vs. street $2.45)
• ◆Dividend raise announcement (likely Q3 2026–Q1 2027) if payout ratio falls below 40%
• ◆AOCI near-completion by Q4 2027 lifting TBV/share to $27+
• ◆Next M&A announcement in 2027 if Texas integration validates bolt-on acquisition strategy

• ◆CRE Concentration (P1): 64% of $21.0B loan book in Mountain West real estate that appreciated 40–60% in 2020–22. Bear case NCO 35bps, severe 75bps. Risk Score 15/25.
• ◆Interest Rate Sensitivity / NIM Reversal (P2): Asset-sensitive balance sheet. Sharp 200bps+ Fed cut cycle stalls or reverses NIM recovery. Score 12/25.
• ◆Texas Guaranty Integration Execution (P2): Largest single deal, first non-Mountain-West geography, $2.1B unknown loan book. Score 9/25.
• ◆AOCI Re-shock (P3): If rates spike to 6%+ on long end, additional AFS unrealized losses widen. Score 8/25.
• ◆Mountain West Economic Slowdown (P3): In-migration reversal or energy/agriculture downcycle. Score 6/25.