Kinder Morgan, Inc.

▲ Bull Case

• ◆LNG export throughput drives 17–20% EBITDA growth by 2028–2029 as the $10B contracted backlog enters service; lifts Adj. EBITDA from ~$8.3B (2025) to ~$10–11B and compresses net debt/EBITDA below 3.5x — unlocking dividend acceleration and/or buybacks.
• ◆AI / data-center gas-power demand adds ~3–5 Bcf/d unmodeled throughput by 2030, of which 30% landing on KMI's Texas/Southwest corridors adds $150–225M EBITDA not in consensus models, enabling significant upside to base case.
• ◆Re-rating from yield-vehicle to growth-infrastructure as the market recognizes 6–8% EBITDA growth (vs. historical 2–3% yield-stock frame), lifting EV/EBITDA from 11.8x toward 13–14x — supporting $42–$48 in the bull case.

▼ Bear Case

• ◆Valuation has run ahead of near-term earnings power. At 11.8x 2026E EBITDA, KMI prices in LNG growth; the +45% stock move from late-2025 lows has compressed margin of safety. Jefferies downgraded to Hold (PT $34) in May 2026 on this view.
• ◆Rising rates compress both the multiple and the dividend appeal. 10Y at 5.5%+ would push KMI's yield (currently 3.5%) higher to compete; ~$26–$27 price level implied. ~$200M of incremental annual cash interest by 2028 reduces DCF coverage toward 1.7x.
• ◆Long-duration energy-transition risk is not in the model. Gas pipelines underwriting 30–40+ year asset lives face stranded-asset risk if solar+storage curves beat projections or LNG export demand decelerates; multi-decade contract renewal risk past 2035.

“The Street consensus debates whether the LNG-export tailwind is already priced in. Buy-side bulls (majority view): Trident + backlog + AI variant push 2027 EBITDA above $9.5B; multiple sustains at 12–13x → $36–$42 target range. Consensus 12-mo PT ~$33.81 (etoro) / ~$34.67 (StockAnalysis). Bears (Jefferies, others): The stock already reflects LNG; near-term beats are visible but not asymmetric; rate environment compresses multiple; leverage limits dividend growth. PT $30–$34. The asymmetric variant not in consensus: AI / data-center natural gas demand on KMI corridors — neither bulls nor bears have modeled this explicitly.”

• ◆Trident Intrastate Pipeline ISD — Q1 2027: adds ~$280M annual EBITDA; removes execution risk; 5–10% stock re-rating potential.
• ◆Q2 2026 + Q3 2026 EBITDA prints (Aug + Nov 2026): consensus $2.15B vs. KMI run-rate suggests further upside.
• ◆Hyperscaler data-center gas power contract on KMI corridors (wildcard, 2026–2027): visible confirmation of AI-demand variant; unmodeled.
• ◆Backlog refresh > $10B (new project FIDs): each incremental $1B at 6x adds ~$167M EBITDA → ~$2.2B EV at 13x multiple.
• ◆FERC rate case settlement on TGP/EPNG favorable (2026–2027): removes overhang; modest EBITDA upside.
• ◆Net debt/EBITDA dropping below 3.5x by 2027–2028: enables dividend growth acceleration or accelerated buybacks.

• ◆Trident schedule slip > 6 months: pushes ~$140–280M EBITDA from 2027 to 2028.
• ◆10Y Treasury rises to 5.5%+: multiple compresses to 10.5–11x; yield-spread frame implies ~$26–$27.
• ◆Leverage breach 4.5x → dividend cut (Severe case, 5% probability): historical precedent (2016 cut from $0.50 to $0.125/qtr).
• ◆LNG counterparty (Plaquemines / Golden Pass) volume reductions or cancellations: material commercial signal; would invalidate growth thesis.
• ◆FERC adverse rate case ruling (TGP or EPNG, 5–15% tariff cut): 25% probability; bounded but real.
• ◆Long-duration energy transition acceleration: solar + storage cost curves beating gas; LNG demand peak earlier than 2035.
• ◆Major pipeline incident (5% probability): regulatory + liability + reputational shock.