American Electric Power Company

AEP
Financial Analysis · Updated May 13, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$6.0B
Q1 2026 · +10.2% YoY
TTM ROIC
6.75%
FY2025 · NOPAT (EBIT × (1 − effective tax rate ~15%)) / Total Capital (Debt + Equity ~$65–70B); industrial framing · WACC ~5.25% · Moat spread +1.5pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: AEP step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

American Electric Power Company (AEP) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue ~$19.6B $18.98B $19.72B +3.9%
Operating EPS $5.09 $5.25 $5.62 +7%
GAAP EPS $4.51 $4.26 $5.60 +31%
Net Income (GAAP) ~$2.33B ~$2.21B ~$2.97B +34%

FY2025: Operating EPS $5.97 (+6.2%), GAAP EPS $6.70 (+20%), net income $3.58B. FY2026 operating EPS guidance: $6.15–$6.45. Long-term guidance: 7–9% CAGR (recently raised to above 9% given expanded capital plan).

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$5.0B
Free Cash Flow Negative (intentionally — capex exceeds operating cash flow in the investment cycle)
Total Capex ~$10–12B/year (scaling toward $15B+/year by 2029-2030)
Total Debt ~$45B
Net Debt / EBITDA ~5–6x (typical for regulated electric utilities with heavy capex)
Rate Base ~$50B+ (growing ~11% annually toward $85B+ by 2030)

Regulated utilities by design run at negative FCF during investment cycles — they issue debt and equity to fund capex, earning regulated returns on the new rate base. Dividends are funded by operating earnings, not FCF.

Key Ratios (approximate, FY2025)

  • P/E (operating): ~16–18x | Dividend Yield: ~3.5–4.0%
  • EV/EBITDA: ~12–14x | Regulated ROE: ~9.3% (trending toward 9.5% by 2030)
  • Rate Base Growth: ~11% annually | Moody's Credit: A2 (upgraded 2025)

Growth Profile

AEP's earnings growth has accelerated from the 5–7% range to a guided >9% CAGR as the data center buildout in its Ohio and Texas territories has materially exceeded expectations. Commercial load grew 10.6% in FY2024, with 4.7 GW of new data center connections in 2025 alone. Management projects 24 GW of new load by 2030 (18 GW from data centers), supported by 63 GW of contracted load commitments. The $78B capital plan (increased from $72B in 2025, and from prior plans of ~$40B) is the most aggressive in AEP's history, with nearly 11% annual rate base growth expected. FERC-regulated transmission earns ~10–11% allowed ROE on new infrastructure — among the highest-return regulated investments in the utility sector.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026: Operating EPS $6.15–$6.45 (management guidance); revenue ~$21B+ as large commercial load ramps
  • FY2027–2030: 7–9%+ annual EPS CAGR anchored in rate base growth; long-term target rate base ~$85B+ by 2030
  • Dividend: $3.80/share annualized (~$0.95/quarter); ~3.8% yield; consistent annual increases targeting 5–7% dividend growth
  • Equity financing: AEP will issue equity (ATM program, block sales) to fund the $78B capex plan — dilution of ~2–3% per year expected

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $AEP.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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