The AES Corporation

AES
Financial Analysis · Updated May 18, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$3.2B
Q1 2026 · +8.7% YoY

Financial Snapshot

ticker: AES step: 04 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

The AES Corporation (AES) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue $12.62B $12.67B $12.28B -3.1%
Adj. EBITDA ~$2.8B $2.83B $2.64B -6.7%
GAAP Net Income ~-$600M ~$260M ~$1.75B n/m
Adj. EPS (non-GAAP) ~$1.76 $1.76 $2.14 +21.6%

GAAP EPS is highly volatile due to asset impairments, disposals, and emerging market adjustments — adj. EPS is the more meaningful operating metric.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$1.5B
Free Cash Flow Modestly negative (heavy capex)
Capital Expenditures ~$3.5B
Cash & Equivalents ~$1.0B
Total Debt ~$25B

Debt-to-capital ratio ~79.8% — highly leveraged; reflects project-finance structure across global generation assets.

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~6x (adj.) | EV/EBITDA: ~14x | Dividend Yield: ~4.5%
  • Adj. EPS growth (FY2024): +21.6% | Adj. EBITDA growth target: 5–7% annually

Growth Profile

AES's revenue is relatively flat due to asset sales and emerging market currency headwinds, but adj. EPS grew 22% in 2024 on renewables additions and a lower tax rate. The company added 6.8 GW of new contracts in 2024 (4.4 GW renewables PPAs) and plans 3.2 GW of new renewable projects in 2025. The 11.7 GW signed PPA backlog provides revenue visibility through the late 2020s. Debt is elevated but is largely project-financed at the asset level, limiting recourse to the parent.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2025: 3.2 GW renewable additions; adj. EBITDA growth target 5–7%
  • 2025 YTD new PPAs: 2.2 GW (1.6 GW with data center customers)
  • PPA backlog: 11.7 GW signed / 5.3 GW under construction (Q1 2025)
  • Coal exit: targeted year-end 2025
  • Analyst avg. price target: ~$19.60 (Moderate Buy; ~50% upside from ~$13 stock)
  • M&A: BlackRock GIP + EQT AB acquisition interest reported February 2026

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $AES.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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