Atmos Energy Corporation

ATO
Financial Analysis · Updated May 18, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
TTM ROIC
9.4%
FY2025 · Blended earned ROE as proxy for ROIC on regulated rate base (equity + debt capital structure at 60/40) · WACC ~6% · Moat spread +3.4pp

Financial Snapshot

ticker: ATO step: 04 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

Atmos Energy Corporation (ATO) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue $4.20B $4.28B $4.17B -2.6%
Operating Margin ~25% ~27% ~30% +3pp
Net Income $774M $886M $1.04B +17.7%
EPS (diluted) $5.60 $6.10 $6.83 +11.9%

All fiscal years end September 30. FY2025: EPS $7.46 (+9.2% vs FY2024) — strong beat; dividend raised nearly 15% to $1.00/quarter.

Note: Revenue declined modestly in FY2024 due to lower natural gas commodity pass-through prices; underlying utility earnings grew strongly.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$1.4B
Free Cash Flow Negative (heavy capex cycle)
Capital Expenditures $2.9B
Cash & Equivalents ~$300M
Total Debt ~$9B

FY2025 planned CapEx: ~$3.7B — accelerating capital deployment to capture Texas regulatory tailwind.

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~23x (FY2025 adj.) | EV/EBITDA: ~16x | Dividend Yield: ~2.3%
  • EPS CAGR (FY2022–FY2025): ~10% | Rate Base CAGR target: 13–15% through FY2030

Growth Profile

Atmos has delivered 23 consecutive years of EPS growth — one of the longest streaks in the utility sector. Growth is driven entirely by rate base expansion funded by infrastructure investment, not volume growth. The company has grown EPS at ~10% annually in recent years, well above utility peers, supported by Texas HB 4384 (passed 2025) enabling 95%+ capital recovery within 6 months. Rate base is targeted to reach ~$42B by FY2030 from accelerating capital deployment.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2025 EPS: $7.46 (actual, +9.2% vs FY2024)
  • FY2026 guidance: EPS growth continuation on $24B capital plan through 2029
  • Capital plan: $24B through FY2029; $3.7B in FY2025 alone
  • Rate base CAGR: 13–15% annually → ~$42B by FY2030
  • Dividend: 40+ consecutive years of increases; $4.00/share annualized (as of FY2025 raise)
  • Analyst avg. price target: ~$165–170 (slight discount to current ~$170; Hold/Neutral consensus)

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $ATO.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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Markdown: /stocks/ato/financials/md · → thesis · → memo