American Express Company

AXP
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
TTM ROIC
31%
FY2025 · ROE (Return on Equity) used as primary capital efficiency metric for financial services; Net Income / Average Equity · WACC ~9.6% · Moat spread +21.4pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: AXP step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

American Express Company (AXP) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY (FY25)
Total Revenue $60.5B $65.9B $72.0B +9.3%
Discount Revenue ~$32B ~$35B ~$38B mid-single-digit
Net Card Fees $6.7B $8.5B $10.0B +18%
Net Interest Income $13.7B $14.9B ~$16B +7%
Provision for Credit Losses $4.9B $5.2B $5.4B +5%
Operating Income $13.0B $13.5B $14.0B +4%
Operating Margin 21.5% 20.5% 19.4% -110 bps
Net Income $8.4B $10.1B $10.0B+ ~flat (ex-one-time gain)
Diluted EPS $11.21 $14.01 $15.38 +9.8% (or +15% ex one-time)

Spending Volume & Cardholder Metrics

Metric FY2024 FY2025
Worldwide Billed Business $1.55T ~$1.65T
Cards-in-Force (proprietary) 83.6M ~88M
New Account Premium Mix 70%+ 77%+
Millennial + Gen Z Account Share (new accts) ~60% 65%
Gen Z Q4 Spending Growth +30%+ +38% YoY
30 Consecutive Quarters Double-Digit Card Fee Growth confirmed confirmed

Cash Flow & Capital Allocation (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$18B
Free Cash Flow ~$15B+
Share Repurchases ~$5–7B
Dividend (Quarterly) $0.95 (+16% in early 2026)
Annual Dividend $3.80
Dividend Yield ~1.3%
New Buyback Authorization $16B
Marketing Spend (annual) $6B (FY25)
Technology Budget $5B annual
Berkshire Hathaway Ownership ~21%
Credit Card Loans (HFI) ~$135B
Net Write-off Rate ~1.8% (vs. ~3–4% peer issuers)

FY2026 Guidance

Metric 2026 Guide
Revenue Growth +9–10%
Adjusted EPS $17.30–17.90 (+12–16%)
Marketing Spend $6B+ continued
Tech Investment $5B+

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~17x (FY26 EPS midpoint) | Price/Book: ~6x | ROE: ~35%+
  • Revenue Growth (FY25): +9.3% | Net Income Growth: ~+15% ex one-time
  • Operating Margin: ~19–21% | Net Write-off Rate: ~1.8% (industry-leading)
  • Dividend Yield: ~1.3% | Buyback Yield: ~3.5%
  • Capital Return Yield: ~5%

Growth Profile

FY25 marked another year of double-digit underlying earnings growth driven by premium card-fee growth (+18%), Millennial + Gen Z spending acceleration, and continued international expansion. The 30 consecutive quarters of double-digit card fee growth is the standout metric — reflecting that AmEx has built a structurally compounding fee-based revenue stream that doesn't require accelerating volume to sustain. Operating margin compressed slightly (~110 bps to 19.4%) on continued marketing + technology investment ($6B + $5B respectively), which management views as long-term ROI vs. near-term margin.

FY26 guide of +9–10% revenue + +12–16% adjusted EPS suggests continued operating leverage as fee revenue compounds, marketing/technology investments reach inflection, and premium-card cohorts mature. Dividend hiked +16% to $0.95 quarterly; $16B buyback authorization indicates management's capital-return commitment.

Forward Estimates

FY2026 Guide:

  • Revenue: +9–10% (~$78–79B)
  • Adjusted EPS: $17.30–17.90

Bull case: Gen Z + Millennial premium-card acceleration continues; international expansion drives mix-shift to higher-margin geographies; net write-off rate remains industry-leading; EPS reaches $19+ in FY27 on operating leverage. Bear case: Premium-card saturation; competition from Chase Sapphire Reserve / Capital One Venture X compresses card-fee economics; recession-driven credit-loss spike from younger less-tenured cardholders; EPS misses guide. Consensus targets ~$330–360 vs. trading ~$280–305 (~15–25% implied upside).

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $AXP.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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