Caterpillar Inc.

CAT
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$17.4B
Q1 2026 · +22.2% YoY
TTM ROIC
26%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Industrial Invested Capital (excluding Cat Financial assets and excess cash) · WACC ~9.5% · Moat spread +16.5pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: CAT step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY (25v24)
Revenue $59.4B $67.1B $64.8B $67.6B +4.3%
Gross Margin ~30% ~34% ~36% ~35% -100 bps
Operating Margin 13.3% 19.3% 20.2% ~19.5% -70 bps
Adj. Operating Margin 14.0% 20.5% 20.7% ~20% -70 bps
Net Income $6.7B $10.3B $10.8B ~$9.0B -16%
EPS (diluted) $12.64 $20.12 $22.05 $18.81 -14.7%
Adj. EPS $13.84 $21.21 $21.90 ~$20 -8.7%

Note: FY2025 EPS declined despite revenue growth due to higher input/material costs (tariff impact) and reset commercial pricing — bookings/backlog continued to expand strongly. TTM revenue (March 2026) reached $70.8B (+11.9% YoY) as the AI-power upcycle accelerated into 2026.

Q4 FY2025 — Record Quarter

  • Revenue: $19.1B (+18% YoY)
  • Backlog entering 2026: $51B (+71% YoY) — a record

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$12B
Capex ~$2.5B
Free Cash Flow ~$9.5B
Cash & Equivalents ~$7B
Total Debt (incl. Cat Financial) ~$36B
ROE ~47.2%

Capital Return

  • 32 consecutive years of dividend increases (Dividend Aristocrat)
  • Annual dividend payout: ~$2.8B
  • Share buybacks: $5–8B annually (variable by year)
  • Total capital return targeted ~100% of FCF over time

Key Ratios (approximate, May 2026)

  • P/E: ~22x (TTM) | EV/EBITDA: ~15x | FCF Yield: ~5%
  • Revenue Growth (TTM): ~12% | Operating Margin: ~20%
  • ROE: ~47% (industry-leading) | ROIC: ~30%+

Segment Mix (FY2024)

  • Construction Industries: ~36% revenue
  • Energy & Transportation: ~41% revenue (largest, fastest growing due to AI / data center demand)
  • Resource Industries: ~17% revenue
  • Financial Products: ~5% revenue

Growth Profile

The defining story of FY2025/2026 is Caterpillar's pivot from cyclical earthmover to industrial AI infrastructure beneficiary. Power generation revenue surged 41% in Q1 2026 to $2.82B as hyperscalers built "behind-the-meter" gas plants (G3500 / G3600 reciprocating engines + Solar Turbines) to bypass multi-year grid interconnect waits. Caterpillar lifted its long-term 2024–2030 CAGR target from 5–7% to 6–9% and now projects power generation sales tripling by 2030. The $725M Lafayette, Indiana capacity expansion (doubling G3500/G3600 production) is the largest discrete capex commitment in years, with output coming online late 2026 / 2027.

Forward Estimates

2026 guidance (issued early 2026): Low double-digit revenue growth (+10–12%); operating margin expansion modest given tariff/input headwinds. Consensus FY2026 EPS: ~$24–26 (+30%+ on normalization). The $51B backlog gives unusual revenue visibility for an industrial — typically CAT has 2–3 quarters of backlog visibility, now it has 4–6 quarters. Bull-side scenarios pencil in $24+ EPS in FY2026 and $30+ in FY2028 as AI-power orders convert. Bear-side scenarios assume mining / construction cycles weaken simultaneously with AI capex peaking, compressing the multi-segment growth path.

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $CAT.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
GET /api/v1/research/CAT/fundamental$1.00 · Bearer token required
Markdown: /stocks/cat/financials/md · → thesis · → memo