CF Industries Holdings Inc.

CF
Financial Analysis · Updated May 13, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$2.0B
Q1 2026 · +19.4% YoY
TTM ROIC
30.4%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (Common Equity + LT Debt - Cash, CF-attributable) · WACC ~8.3% · Moat spread +21.7pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: CF step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue $11.19B $6.63B $5.94B -10.5%
Net Income $3.35B $1.53B $1.22B -20.3%
EPS (diluted) $16.46 $7.89 $6.75 -14.5%
Adj. EBITDA $5.88B $2.76B $2.28B -17.4%

FY2022 was an extraordinary year — Russian invasion of Ukraine sent nitrogen prices to all-time highs, driving record profitability. FY2023 and FY2024 reflect price normalization as global supply recovered. FY2025 showed recovery: net income $1.46B (+19% YoY), adjusted EBITDA ~$2.85B, on net sales of $7.08B.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Adj. EBITDA (FY2024) $2.28B
Gross Ammonia Production ~9.8M tons
Capital Expenditures ~$600M
Cash & Equivalents ~$2.3B
Total Debt ~$3.0B
Net Debt ~$0.7B (low leverage)

CF's balance sheet is conservatively levered, with substantial cash position enabling aggressive buybacks and the $4B low-carbon ammonia FID. FCF generation is strong even at trough nitrogen prices due to low net debt and U.S. natural gas cost advantage.

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E (FY2024): ~10x | EV/EBITDA: ~7x | ROIC: ~29%
  • FCF Yield: ~8–10% (at trough pricing)
  • Adj. EBITDA Margin: ~38% (FY2024)
  • Operating Margin (FY2025): ~31.8%

Growth Profile

CF's revenues are highly cyclical with nitrogen fertilizer prices. FY2022 was a generational peak; FY2023–FY2024 normalized significantly. FY2025 recovery was driven by stronger ammonia/urea pricing and capacity utilization improvement. The $4B low-carbon ammonia project (Louisiana, production starting 2029) represents the next structural growth leg as the company positions for the premium green ammonia market.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026 EPS: ~$7–8 range (consensus; variable with nitrogen prices)
  • Low-carbon ammonia facility commissioning: 2029 (~3M tons capacity at premium pricing)
  • Nitrogen price outlook: Supported by Russian supply restrictions (~15% below pre-war) and Chinese urea export quotas

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $CF.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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