C.H. Robinson Worldwide Inc.

CHRW
Financial Analysis · Updated May 29, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
TTM ROIC
16.3%
FY2023 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (Total Equity + Net Debt) · WACC ~9% · Moat spread +7.3pp
DCF Fair Value
$98
Base case · WACC 9.75% · Terminal 2.5% · -43.8% vs. current price
Margin Profile
Gross 15.3%
Operating 29.9%
FY2023
Net Debt
$1.6B
Cash $233M · Debt $1.9B · FY2023 (Year-End 2023)
Diluted Shares
119M
2026-05-22

Business Overview


source: coverage-next-full ticker: CHRW step: "01" title: Business Overview — What C.H. Robinson Does created: 2026-05-29

Step 01 — Business Overview

Company Summary

C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (NASDAQ: CHRW) is the world's largest third-party logistics (3PL) provider and freight broker. Founded in 1905 as a produce brokerage in Grand Forks, North Dakota, the company has grown into a global supply chain intermediary connecting over 100,000 shippers with a network of 400,000+ carriers and transportation providers. CHRW does not own trucks — it is an asset-light marketplace platform that earns the spread between what shippers pay and what it pays carriers.

Core value proposition: CHRW matches freight demand (shippers) with carrier supply, providing shippers with capacity access, rate transparency, and logistics management while providing carriers with consistent load flow and backhaul optimization. The Navisphere technology platform underpins digital booking, tracking, and visibility.

Business Model

Revenue Architecture
  • Gross Revenue (~$17-22B range): The total amount billed to shippers for transportation
  • Net Revenue (Gross Margin): Gross revenue minus carrier/transportation costs paid out; this is ~15-18% of gross revenue and represents CHRW's true economic value-add (the brokerage spread)
  • Operating leverage: Fixed cost base (technology, people) amplifies earnings in freight upturns; same base compresses margins in downturns
How Profits Are Made
  1. Shipper calls CHRW needing 10 truckloads moved from Chicago to Dallas
  2. CHRW sources carriers from its 400,000-carrier network, paying carriers $1,800/load
  3. CHRW bills shippers $2,100/load
  4. CHRW earns $300/load spread (~14% net margin on gross revenue)
  5. Fixed cost base (tech, people) determines how much of the $300 drops to operating income

Business Segments

1. North American Surface Transportation (NAST) — ~70% of Net Revenue

The crown jewel. Truckload (TL) brokerage is the dominant product:

  • Truckload (TL): Matches full-truckload shippers with contract and spot carriers; ~50-55% of NAST net revenue
  • Less-than-Truckload (LTL): Consolidates smaller freight shipments from multiple shippers; growing share; higher complexity
  • Other Surface Transportation: Intermodal (rail + truck combos), expedited, specialized
  • NAST operates exclusively in the US, Canada, and Mexico

Key NAST metrics monitored: shipment volumes, revenue per shipment, net revenue per shipment (the spread), carrier acceptance rates

2. Global Forwarding — ~20% of Net Revenue

International freight forwarding:

  • Ocean Freight: Consolidates or books full containers (FCL/LCL) on ocean carriers; volatile with port congestion cycles
  • Air Freight: Time-sensitive shipments; higher margins per unit
  • Customs Brokerage: Handles import/export documentation, duties, compliance — recurring, sticky revenue
  • Operates through 200+ offices in 60+ countries
  • Competes with Kuehne+Nagel, DSV, Flexport in digital forwarding
3. Robinson Fresh — ~5-7% of Net Revenue

Legacy produce brokerage (the original business). Sources and distributes fresh fruits and vegetables. Lower margins, slower growth, but stable. Increasingly viewed as non-core.

4. All Other / Managed Services — ~5% of Net Revenue
  • Managed Services: Outsourced transportation management for large shippers; CHRW manages entire freight programs
  • Other specialty services (Freightquote, European Surface)

Technology Platform: Navisphere

Navisphere is CHRW's proprietary TMS (Transportation Management System) and freight marketplace:

  • Single global platform connecting shippers, carriers, and CHRW operations
  • AI/ML-based pricing algorithms, dynamic capacity matching, predictive analytics
  • Shipper portal for booking, tracking, visibility
  • Carrier portal for load board, payment, document management
  • API integrations with shipper ERP systems (SAP, Oracle) and carrier TMS

Navisphere is CHRW's primary moat defense against digital freight brokers (Uber Freight, Flexport). Investment has accelerated under CEO Bozeman.

Leadership (2024)

Name Role Tenure
Dave Bozeman President & CEO Jan 2023–present
Arun Rajan COO 2023–present
Mike Zechmeister CFO 2019–present

Dave Bozeman background: Joined from Amazon (VP of Amazon Transportation Services). Prior: Caterpillar, Paccar. Operational excellence / technology efficiency focus. Controversial internally for cultural change and layoffs.

Scale and Network Statistics (2023)

  • ~17-18 million shipments per year
  • 400,000+ carriers in network
  • 100,000+ customers (shippers)
  • ~13,000 employees (down from ~16,000 post-restructuring)
  • Offices in 100+ countries
  • Gross revenue: ~$17B (FY2023)

Recent Strategic Shifts (2023-2024)

  1. Cost restructuring: ~$150M annualized savings; headcount reduction from ~16K to ~13K
  2. Technology acceleration: Robinson Labs innovation; Generative AI pilots for pricing/matching
  3. Operational focus: Exit from some lower-margin business segments
  4. European Surface Transport: Sold in 2023, non-core exit
  5. Capital returns: Maintained dividend; selective buybacks

Competitive Position

CHRW is 2-3x the size of its nearest North American broker competitors by revenue. Scale creates a virtuous cycle: more carriers → better capacity access → more shippers → more freight data → better pricing models → more competitive offers.

Financial Snapshot


source: coverage-next-full ticker: CHRW step: "04" title: Financial Snapshot — 3-Year P&L Summary (FY2021–FY2023) created: 2026-05-29

Step 04 — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary (FY2021–FY2023)

All figures in millions USD unless noted.

Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 YoY Change (22→23)
Total Revenues (Gross) $23,109 $24,711 $17,611 -28.7%
Purchased Transportation $19,645 $20,973 $14,925 -28.8%
Net Revenues (Gross Profit) $3,464 $3,738 $2,686 -28.1%
Net Revenue Margin 15.0% 15.1% 15.3% +20 bps
Personnel Expenses $1,611 $1,803 $1,501 -16.8%
Other SG&A $420 $431 $381 -11.6%
Total Operating Expenses $2,031 $2,234 $1,882 -15.8%
Operating Income (EBIT) $1,433 $1,504 $804 -46.5%
EBIT Margin (on Net Rev) 41.4% 40.2% 29.9% -1,030 bps
Interest Expense, Net ($79) ($111) ($141) +27%
Other Income / (Expense) $4 ($5) $1
Pre-Tax Income $1,358 $1,388 $664 -52.2%
Income Tax Expense $302 $314 $152 -51.6%
Effective Tax Rate 22.2% 22.6% 22.9% +30 bps
Net Income $1,056 $1,074 $512 -52.3%
Net Income Margin (on Net Rev) 30.5% 28.7% 19.1% -960 bps
Diluted EPS $7.76 $8.20 $3.99 -51.3%
Diluted Share Count (M) 136.0 130.9 128.4 -1.9%
Key Observations:
  1. Peak-to-trough compression: Net revenues fell 28% from FY2022 to FY2023; earnings fell over 50% due to operating leverage working in reverse
  2. Personnel cost management: Headcount cuts drove 17% reduction in personnel costs (largest cost line)
  3. Interest expense rising: Reflects higher rates on variable-rate debt and increased borrowing
  4. Tax rate stable: ~22-23% effective rate is consistent
  5. Share count declining: Ongoing buyback program; ~7M fewer diluted shares vs. FY2021

Gross Profit (Net Revenue) Bridge: FY2022 → FY2023

  • FY2022 Net Revenue: $3,738M
  • Volume decline: -$350M (shipment volumes fell ~8-10%)
  • Net revenue per shipment decline: -$702M (spread compression; main driver)
  • FY2023 Net Revenue: $2,686M (total decline: -$1,052M)

The spread compression accounted for ~67% of the net revenue decline; volume was ~33%.

Adjusted / Non-GAAP Metrics (Management's Preferred View)

CHRW reports "Adjusted Gross Profit" similar to its GAAP net revenues. Key non-GAAP adjustments:

  • Adjusted Operating Income: Excludes restructuring charges (~$50-80M in FY2023 related to Bozeman cost program)
  • Adjusted EPS: Excludes restructuring; FY2023 adjusted EPS ~$4.50-4.75 (estimate)

Restructuring charges in FY2023: Approximately $50-80M related to headcount reduction (~3,000 employees), office consolidations, and technology infrastructure changes.

Segment Operating Income

Segment FY2021 Income FY2022 Income FY2023 Income
NAST ~$1,085M ~$1,120M ~$600M
Global Forwarding ~$225M ~$290M ~$130M
Robinson Fresh ~$25M ~$30M ~$25M
All Other ~$20M ~$25M ~$30M
Corporate / Unallocated (~$200M) (~$230M) (~$210M)
Total Operating Income ~$1,155M ~$1,235M ~$575M

Note: Segment income excludes stock-based compensation and certain corporate allocations. Numbers are approximate based on available disclosure.

Three-Year Revenue and Profitability Trends

Revenue: The $23B peak in FY2021 gross revenue reflects extraordinary freight boom conditions, not normal. Normalized gross revenue (~$18-20B) is more sustainable as the cycle recovers.

Net Revenue: The structural profitability of the business is better measured through cycle. FY2019 (pre-COVID) net revenue was ~$1.9B, growing to ~$3.7B peak. The trough ~$2.7B likely represents conservative scenario given Bozeman cost actions.

Margins: EBIT margin on net revenue has historically been 35-42% in normal/boom conditions. The 2023 compression to ~30% reflects the sudden demand drop on a partially fixed cost base. With restructuring complete, operating leverage should be more pronounced on recovery.

Balance Sheet Highlights (Year-End 2023)

Item FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
Cash & Equivalents $310M $233M $233M
Accounts Receivable $2,512M $2,157M $1,669M
Total Current Assets $3,028M $2,559M $2,018M
Total Assets $5,567M $5,110M $4,477M
Short-term Debt $355M $249M $249M
Long-term Debt $1,603M $1,594M $1,625M
Total Debt $1,958M $1,843M $1,874M
Net Debt $1,648M $1,610M $1,641M
Shareholders' Equity $1,768M $1,636M $1,266M
Net Debt / EBITDA ~1.0x ~1.1x ~2.0x

Note: Leverage increased in FY2023 as EBITDA fell while debt remained stable. Management has guided to deleveraging via FCF as earnings recover.

Cash Flow Summary

Item FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
Operating Cash Flow ~$1,100M ~$1,280M ~$970M
Capex ~$150M ~$175M ~$120M
Free Cash Flow ~$950M ~$1,105M ~$850M
Dividends Paid ~$310M ~$315M ~$310M
Share Buybacks ~$400M ~$750M ~$110M
Total Capital Return ~$710M ~$1,065M ~$420M
FCF Conversion (FCF/Net Income) ~90% ~103% ~166%

FCF conversion above 100% in FY2023 reflects working capital release as AR fell sharply with lower freight volumes and rates.

Key Ratios Summary

Ratio FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
P/E (fwd, approx.) ~18x ~14x ~28x
EV/EBITDA ~12x ~11x ~18x
P/FCF ~16x ~13x ~18x
Dividend Yield ~1.8% ~2.2% ~2.8%
ROIC ~28% ~31% ~16%
ROE ~60% ~66% ~40%

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $CHRW.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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