Dow Inc.

DOW
Financial Analysis · Updated May 13, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$9.8B
Q1 2026 · -6.1% YoY
TTM ROIC
3%
FY2025 · EBITDA / Invested Capital (gross proxy); EBITDA-based due to operating income distortion from impairments · WACC ~8% · Moat spread +-5pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: DOW step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Dow Inc. (DOW) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue ~$56.9B $44.6B $43.0B -3.7%
Gross Margin ~18% ~11% ~12%
Operating Margin ~12% ~3% ~5%
Net Income ~$4.5B $0.58B $1.10B +91%
EPS (diluted) ~$6.30 $0.82 $1.57 +91%

Note: FY2022 was a peak commodity cycle year — record polyethylene prices following COVID-driven demand surge. FY2023 saw severe margin compression as Chinese polyethylene capacity additions flooded global markets and polymer prices collapsed. FY2024 showed modest recovery. FY2025 was a significant step backward: revenue ~$40B (-7%), GAAP net loss of ~$2.4B (likely includes goodwill/asset impairments). Commodity cycle and Chinese overcapacity remain central headwinds.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$2.8B
Free Cash Flow ~$1.5B (est.)
Cash & Equivalents ~$2.5B
Total Debt ~$16B
Annual Dividend ~$2.80/share (~6–7% yield at depressed price)

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: Not meaningful (loss year 2025) | EV/EBITDA: ~6–8x (trough)
  • Dividend Yield: ~6–7% (high yield reflects distressed pricing, not growth)
  • Debt/EBITDA: ~4–5x (elevated at trough margins)

Growth Profile

Dow's earnings are highly cyclical and correlated with polyethylene price spreads and global industrial activity. The 2022 peak-to-2023 trough collapse (EPS $6.30 → $0.82) illustrates the severity of commodity cycles. The 2024 partial recovery was followed by a renewed downturn in 2025 (GAAP loss of $2.4B), suggesting the trough has not yet been definitively reached. The Path2Zero Fort Saskatchewan project (proposed net-zero ethylene cracker) was deferred due to economics, removing the primary long-term growth catalyst.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026E: Dependent on polyethylene price recovery and Chinese capacity utilization
  • Consensus: ~$1–2 adj. EPS for 2026 if poly prices stabilize; potential upside if Chinese capacity rationalization occurs
  • Dividend sustainability depends on FCF: $1.5B FCF must cover ~$2.0B annual dividend

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $DOW.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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