Fair Isaac Corporation

FICO
Financial Analysis · Updated May 13, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$640M
Q2 FY2026 · +39% YoY
TTM ROIC
165%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Tangible Invested Capital (assets - goodwill - cash) · WACC ~8.5% · Moat spread +156.5pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: FICO step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue ~$1.38B ~$1.52B $1.72B +13%
Gross Margin ~78% ~80% ~80% flat
Operating Margin ~38% ~42% ~43% +1pp
Net Income ~$390M ~$455M $513M +13%
EPS (diluted, GAAP) ~$14.30 ~$17.35 $20.45 +18%

FICO fiscal year ends September 30. FY2025 (ended Sept 30, 2025): Revenue $1.99B (+16%); gross margin ~82.2%; operating margin ~46.5%; net income $652M; GAAP EPS $26.54 (+30%). FY2026 guidance (full year ending Sept 30, 2026): Revenue $2.45B (+23%); GAAP EPS $35.60; Non-GAAP EPS $40.45. The extraordinary EPS growth of 30–40%+ annually is driven by: (1) Scores price increases (mortgage score B2B price rose 800% over 3 years); (2) margin expansion; and (3) aggressive share buybacks reducing share count.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$850M
Free Cash Flow $770M (+22% YoY)
FCF Margin ~39%
Cash & Equivalents ~$0.2B
Total Debt ~$2.3B
Net Debt ~$2.1B (~2.7x Adj. EBITDA)

Key Ratios (approximate, FY2025/2026)

  • P/E (GAAP FY2025): ~65–70x | P/E (Non-GAAP FY2026E): ~45x | EV/FCF: ~55–60x
  • FCF Yield: ~1.7–2.0% | Revenue Growth: +16% (FY2025), +23% guided (FY2026)
  • Gross Margin: ~82% | Operating Margin: ~47% (FY2025) | Scores Segment Op. Margin: ~88%+
  • ROIC: ~41% | Share count: declining ~5% annually from buybacks

Growth Profile

FICO's revenue growth has accelerated from ~8–10% to ~13–23% due almost entirely to Scores price increases — not volume growth. Mortgage origination volumes have been depressed (high rates suppressing refinancing), so the 60%+ YoY jump in mortgage scores revenue (Q3 2025) was driven by the price increase from ~$0.60 to ~$4.95 per score pull. This pricing power reflects FICO's monopoly position but also creates political and regulatory exposure. Software/Platform is growing at ~10–15% organically with Platform ARR (+33%) accelerating. The combination of Scores price leverage + Software mix shift toward higher-margin Platform + buybacks creates a ~25–35% EPS CAGR that is extraordinary for a company of this maturity.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026: Revenue $2.45B (+23%); GAAP EPS $35.60; Non-GAAP EPS $40.45; FCF ~$950M+
  • FY2027+: Revenue growth expected to moderate to ~10–15% as price increase cycle matures; Software/Platform growth sustains at ~15%; buybacks continue reducing share count ~5%/year
  • Capital Allocation: FICO returns nearly all FCF via buybacks (no dividend); ~$750M–1B annually in repurchases

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $FICO.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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