Fox Corporation (Class A)

ticker: FOXA step: 01 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

Fox Corporation (FOXA) — Business Overview

Business Description

Fox Corporation is a news and sports-focused media company operating Fox News, Fox Sports, Fox Entertainment, and the Tubi free ad-supported streaming service. Formed in 2019 after Disney acquired most of 21st Century Fox's entertainment assets, Fox kept the live news and sports properties that Disney didn't want. Fox is the #1 cable news network (Fox News), the #1 sports broadcaster by live viewership (Fox Sports), and owns Tubi — the #1 free ad-supported streaming service in the US with 100M+ monthly active users. Fox One, a new streaming bundle aggregating all Fox brands, is planned for launch before the 2025 football season.

Revenue Model

Fox earns revenue through: (1) Advertising — linear TV (Fox News, Fox Sports, Fox broadcast network) + digital/Tubi AVOD; (2) Affiliate fees — monthly per-subscriber carriage payments from pay-TV distributors (cable/satellite) for Fox News and FS1/FS2; (3) Other — Fox Nation subscriptions, content licensing, Fox One subscription fees. Advertising and affiliate fees are roughly split. Political advertising cycles (presidential, midterm) and major sports events (Super Bowl, NFL, World Cup) drive significant quarterly swings. FY2025 revenue: $16.3B (+16.6%), boosted by Super Bowl LIX advertising.

Products & Services

• Fox News Channel — #1 cable news network; 2.3M+ avg primetime viewers; political/news coverage
• Fox Sports (FS1, FS2, Big Ten Network) — NFL, MLB, NASCAR, UFC, college sports; #1 live sports broadcaster by hours viewed
• Fox Broadcasting — free OTA network; NFL, entertainment programming, local affiliates
• Tubi — AVOD streaming; 100M+ monthly active users; 2.2% share of total US TV viewing; ~$1B+ revenue
• Fox Nation — subscription streaming; 1.5M+ subscribers; Fox News extended content
• Fox One — upcoming streaming bundle (all Fox brands + live TV for cord-cutters; pre-launch 2025)

Customer Base & Go-to-Market

Fox News reaches an older, politically conservative audience that skews high-income and highly engaged. Fox Sports reaches the broadest demographic via NFL and college sports. Tubi targets the price-sensitive streaming audience (cord-nevers, cord-cutters) with free ad-supported content — 97M MAUs as of January 2025, 100M by June 2025. Fox sells advertising directly to brands and agencies; affiliate fees are negotiated with distributors (Comcast, Charter, DirecTV) on multi-year contracts.

Competitive Position

Fox News is the dominant cable news brand with no close competitor in ratings. Fox Sports competes with ESPN/ABC (Disney) and NBC Sports for live sports rights. Tubi competes with Pluto TV (Paramount), Peacock (Comcast), and Amazon Freevee in the AVOD space — Tubi is #1 by usage at 2.2% total TV viewing share, ahead of Peacock. Fox's strategic focus on live news and sports positions it as one of the more durable media companies in the cord-cutting era; live content is the last category that draws linear TV audiences.

Key Facts

• Founded: 2019 (spin-off from 21st Century Fox)
• Headquarters: New York, New York
• Employees: ~10,000
• Exchange: NASDAQ
• Sector / Industry: Communication Services / Broadcasting
• Market Cap: ~$22B (at ~$74/share, Class A)

ticker: FOXA step: 12 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

Fox Corporation (FOXA) — Investment Catalysts & Risks

Bull Case Drivers

1. Tubi at 100M MAUs — Free Streaming's Dominant Platform — Tubi reached 100 million monthly active users in June 2025, making it the most-watched free streaming service in the US at 2.2% of total TV viewing — ahead of Peacock (Comcast's $2B+/year loss leader). Fox acquired Tubi for $440M in 2020 and turned down a $2B buyout offer in 2023. Tubi now generates $1B+ in annual revenue and reached breakeven or better for three consecutive quarters in FY2026, with revenue growing 23% YoY. As cord-cutting accelerates, Tubi's AVOD model captures displaced viewership without expensive original content investment — its library is primarily licensed content at low CPM. Tubi represents a substantial and undervalued asset within Fox's market cap.

2. Live Events Supercycle: World Cup + Midterms in FY2026 — Fox holds US English-language broadcast rights to the FIFA Men's World Cup 2026, the first World Cup hosted jointly by the US, Canada, and Mexico. Combined with the 2026 midterm election advertising cycle (projected $11B record political ad market), FY2026 is shaping up as a strong revenue year. Fox's stock surged 7% after Q3 FY2026 earnings as these catalysts materialized: record EBITDA of $950M+, Tubi +23%, political ad revenue at record off-year levels. Fox One's cord-cutter bundle launch before the 2025 football season is another catalyst — a new subscription revenue stream that can partially offset affiliate fee erosion from pay-TV bundle declines.

3. Deep Value: 11x P/E + 7% FCF Yield + No Sell Ratings — Fox trades at ~11x earnings and ~7% FCF yield — one of the cheapest large-cap media stocks. The company consistently generates $1.5B+ in FCF and returns capital aggressively via buybacks. With 15 Buy / 8 Hold / 0 Sell analyst ratings and a low consensus valuation, Fox appears undervalued relative to its FCF profile. Tubi's AVOD growth, Fox News' entrenched leadership, and live sports rights create multiple durable revenue streams. Post-Dominion settlement ($787M in 2023), the Murdoch defamation legal overhang has materially reduced.

Bear Case Risks

1. Cord-Cutting Accelerating — Affiliate Fee Erosion is Structural — Fox News and FS1/FS2 generate substantial affiliate fees from pay-TV distributors (~$2.7B+ annually). As the pay-TV bundle shrinks at ~6–7% per year, these carriage fees decline structurally regardless of Fox News ratings. Fox One is designed to offset this with a direct-to-consumer bundle, but transitioning from $10+/month affiliate fees to subscription revenue requires subscriber acquisition at scale — an unproven transition. If cord-cutting accelerates beyond current projections, the affiliate fee pillar erodes faster than Tubi and Fox One can replace it, compressing margins permanently.

2. Fox News Brand Risk + Advertiser Sensitivity to Controversy — Fox News' business model depends on high ratings, but also on blue-chip advertiser support. The Dominion Voting Systems lawsuit ($787M settlement, 2023) and ongoing controversies around Fox's editorial choices create recurring advertiser boycott risk. In a highly polarized environment, major brands are increasingly cautious about appearing adjacent to divisive political content. Any significant advertiser exodus from Fox News would disproportionately impact the high-margin affiliate+advertising combination that makes Fox News the company's most profitable unit. The Murdoch succession dynamic (Rupert transitioning to Lachlan) adds management continuity uncertainty.

3. Sports Rights Cost Inflation + Competition from Streaming Giants — Fox's competitive position in sports broadcasting is sound today, but NFL rights deals (Fox pays ~$2B/year) and college sports rights are escalating dramatically. Apple, Amazon, and Netflix are bidding for premium sports rights with balance sheets Fox cannot match. While Fox has locked in NFL rights through 2033, the next negotiation cycle will be far more expensive. Additionally, as live sports migrate to streaming (Amazon Prime NFL Thursday Night, Apple MLB), Fox's broadcast platform advantage diminishes and its purely-cable channels (FS1, FS2) face audience attrition that advertising pricing cannot fully offset.

Upcoming Events

• June 2026: FIFA Men's World Cup begins — Fox holds US English-language broadcast rights; major ad revenue catalyst
• FY2026: Midterm election advertising cycle — projected $11B record political ad market
• Pre-football season 2025: Fox One streaming bundle launch — cord-cutter subscription revenue catalyst
• FY2027: Fox News affiliate fee renegotiations with major distributors — key distribution risk
• Ongoing: Tubi MAU growth and revenue trajectory — AVOD profitability milestone tracking

Analyst Sentiment

Moderately bullish: 15 Buy / 8 Hold / 0 Sell. Mean price target ~$76, implying minimal upside from current ~$74. The stock is not cheap on a growth-adjusted basis, but the FCF yield (~7%) and live-content durability support the floor. The bull case requires Tubi to scale as a valuable standalone asset and Fox One to bridge the cord-cutting gap — bears see structural affiliate fee erosion as the dominant trend. World Cup + midterms make FY2026 a near-term tailwind.

Research Date

Generated: 2026-05-13