Graphic Packaging Holding Company
GPKFinancial Analysis · Updated May 18, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
TTM ROIC
6.7%
FY2025 · EBIT / Capital Employed (Total Assets minus estimated non-interest-bearing current liabilities) · WACC ~7.5% · Moat spread +-0.8pp
Financial Snapshot
ticker: GPK step: 04 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) — Financial Snapshot
Income Statement Summary
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | ~$9.4B | $9.42B | $8.81B | -6.6% |
| Gross Margin | ~16% | ~16% | ~15% | -1pp |
| Operating Margin | ~9% | ~9% | ~7% | -2pp |
| Net Income | ~$600M | ~$560M | ~$460M | -18% |
| EPS (adj. diluted) | ~$2.80 | ~$2.85 | ~$2.65 | -7% |
FY2025: Revenue $8.617B (-2% YoY); net income ~$444M (5.2% margin)
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024/2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | ~$900M |
| Free Cash Flow | Compressed (~$200M) due to Waco CapEx ($700M spend in 2025) |
| Cash & Equivalents | ~$200M |
| Total Debt | ~$5.8B |
Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~6x (adj.) | EV/EBITDA: ~6x | FCF Yield: ~15%+ (normalized 2026+)
- Revenue Growth (FY2024): -6.6% | Adj. EBITDA: ~$1.7B
Growth Profile
GPK revenue peaked around $9.4B in 2022-2023 as COVID-era pricing gains unwound and CPG customers destocked. Revenue has declined ~9% since peak but is stabilizing. The key investment thesis is FCF normalization: the Waco mill ($1.67B total project) nears completion in early 2026, dropping CapEx from $700M to maintenance levels ($400M) and freeing up $300M+ in incremental FCF annually. Normalized FCF is projected at $700-800M, equating to a ~15% FCF yield on the current market cap.
Forward Estimates
- FY2026 FCF: $700–800M (post-Waco normalization)
- FY2026 adj. EBITDA: management guiding for improvement from FY2025's ~$1.65B
- Analyst avg. price target: ~$17 (reset down from ~$20 on cautious 2026 packaging volume outlook)
- Innovation sales: $213M in FY2025 (~2.5% of net sales)
Deeper Financial Analysis
The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $GPK.
Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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