Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

ICE
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
TTM ROIC
7.8%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Avg. Invested Capital (Total equity + Total debt - Clearing house collateral assets); NOPAT = Operating income × (1 - 21% tax rate) · WACC ~7.7% · Moat spread +0.1pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: ICE step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY (FY25)
Net Revenue $8.0B $9.28B $9.93B +7.0%
Exchanges Revenue $4.5B $5.0B ~$5.3B mid-single-digit
Fixed Income & Data Services $2.3B $2.3B ~$2.4B +3-4%
Mortgage Technology $1.2B $2.0B ~$2.2B +10%+ (incl. Black Knight)
Adjusted Operating Margin ~58% ~59% ~60% +100 bps
Adjusted Diluted EPS $5.59 $6.10 $6.95 +14%

Cash Flow & Capital Allocation (FY2025)

Metric Value
Adjusted Free Cash Flow $4.2B
Capital Expenditures $0.8B (cloud + AI strategic capex)
Operating Cash Flow ~$5.0B
Share Repurchases $1.3B
Dividends Paid ~$1.1B
Quarterly Dividend (early 2026) $0.52 (+6% raise from $0.48)
Annual Dividend $2.08
Dividend Yield ~1.3%
Cash & Marketable Securities ~$2B
Total Debt ~$20B (Black Knight financing)
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.0x (reduced from post-Black Knight peak)

Black Knight Integration

Metric Status
Acquisition Price $13B (Sept 2023)
Synergy Target $275M by YE 2028
Annualized Synergies (early 2026) $230M (ahead of plan)
Mortgage Servicing Market Share (MSP) ~70%+ US
FY26 Mortgage Technology Growth Guide low-to-mid single digit

FY2026 Outlook (Qualitative)

Metric 2026 Outlook
Total Revenue Growth mid-single digit
Recurring Revenue Growth mid-single digit
Mortgage Technology Growth low-to-mid single digit
Recurring Revenue Mix Target by 2028 >60%
Strategic Capex ~$0.8B (cloud + AI migration)

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~24x (FY26 adjusted EPS estimate ~$7.45) | EV/EBITDA: ~18x | FCF Yield: ~4.4%
  • Revenue Growth (FY25): +7.0% | FCF Margin: ~42%
  • Adjusted Operating Margin: ~60% (best-in-class)
  • Dividend Yield: ~1.3% | Dividend Growth: +6% (FY26)
  • Net Debt / EBITDA: 3.0x

Growth Profile

FY25 was a record year — adjusted EPS $6.95 (+14%); record adjusted FCF $4.2B; record revenue $9.93B. The strategic narrative is diversification into recurring revenue + Black Knight integration synergies:

  • Black Knight integration ahead of plan: $230M annualized synergies vs. $275M target by YE 2028.
  • Recurring revenue mix on path to 60%+ by 2028.
  • Mortgage Technology growth in low-mid single digits as US housing transactions stay subdued (mortgage rate lock-in continues).
  • Cloud migration + AI investment ramping ($0.8B capex earmark).

FY26 setup: continued mid-single-digit revenue growth + ongoing margin expansion + Black Knight synergies + reduced leverage = double-digit EPS growth. Recurring revenue stability vs. transactional Exchange revenue creates a more resilient model.

Forward Estimates

FY2026 (Consensus):

  • Revenue: ~$10.4–10.6B (+5–7%)
  • Adjusted EPS: ~$7.45–7.75 (+7–11%)

Bull case: Mortgage market recovery on Fed rate cuts unlocks Mortgage Technology to high-single-digit growth; Brent crude volatility supports Exchanges; multiple expands to 26–28x P/E. Bear case: Mortgage rates remain elevated; commodities volume normalizes; Exchanges decelerate; multiple compresses to 20x P/E. Consensus targets ~$190–215 vs. trading ~$165–175 (~15–25% implied upside).

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $ICE.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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