Intel Corporation
INTCFinancial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$13.6B
Q1 2026 · +7% YoY · Beat consensus by 11%
TTM ROIC
-2%
FY2025 · ROIC on total assets; NOPAT on $211B total asset base · WACC ~10.5% · Moat spread +-12pp
Financial Snapshot
ticker: INTC step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research
Intel Corporation (INTC) — Financial Snapshot
(Note: Intel's revenue baseline shifted with internal foundry model + Altera + Mobileye treatment; FY2025 reported revenue was $52.9B vs. prior segment-summed figures.)
Income Statement Summary
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY (FY25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (reported) | $54.2B | $53.1B | $52.9B | flat |
| GAAP EPS (attributable to Intel) | $0.40 | -$4.38 | -$0.06 | recovering |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $1.05 | $1.27 | $0.42 | declining (FY24 vs. FY25) |
| Operating Cash Flow | $11.5B | $8.3B | $9.7B | +17% |
| Free Cash Flow | -$14B | -$10.6B | -$4.9B | improving |
| Capital Expenditures | ~$26B | ~$19B | ~$15B | declining |
Segment Detail (FY2025 with internal foundry model)
| Segment | FY25 Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Client Computing Group (CCG) | $32.2B | +6.4% |
| Data Center and AI (DCAI) | $16.9B | +32% (recovery from FY24 low) |
| Network and Edge (NEX) | ~$5–6B | mid-single-digit |
| Intel Foundry (internal + external) | $17.8B | +1.6% |
| - External Foundry Revenue (Q4 2025) | $222M | symbolic milestone |
| Altera | $1.5–2B | declining |
| Mobileye | $1.7–2B | recovering |
Q1 2026 Beat + Q2 2026 Guidance
| Metric | Q1 2026 Actual | Q2 2026 Guide |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.6B (beat by $1.4B) | $13.8–14.8B (above $13.07B consensus) |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.29 (vs. break-even guide) | $0.20 (above $0.09 consensus) |
| Note | "Demand outpacing supply across all businesses" | Continued momentum |
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation (FY2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $9.7B |
| Capital Expenditures | ~$15B |
| Free Cash Flow | -$4.9B (improving from -$10.6B FY24) |
| US Government Equity Stake | ~10% (from CHIPS Act grant conversion) |
| CHIPS Act Direct Grants | ~$8.5B |
| CHIPS Act Loans Access | ~$11B |
| Brookfield Fab JV (Arizona + Ohio) | 49% Brookfield / 51% Intel |
| Apollo Ireland Fab 34 | Repurchased by Intel for $14.2B |
| Dividend | Suspended (cut in 2024) |
| Major Capex | Fab 52 Arizona 18A; Fab 62 high-volume manufacturing |
Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~80x+ (FY26E EPS recovering from low base) | EV/EBITDA: ~12x | FCF Yield: negative
- Revenue Growth (FY25): flat (recovery from FY24 trough)
- Operating Margin: low single-digit (recovering)
- Net Debt: ~$30B
- Dividend: NONE (suspended in FY24)
Growth Profile
FY25 was the bottom year for Intel's recent cycle. Key developments:
- Revenue flat at $52.9B (FY24 was $53.1B; both depressed vs. $54.2B FY23)
- FCF improved from -$10.6B (FY24) to -$4.9B (FY25)
- DCAI recovered +32% on Granite Rapids Xeon launch
- 18A high-volume manufacturing began at Fab 52 Arizona October 2025
- Lip-Bu Tan installed as CEO March 2025 — focused turnaround
Q1 2026 inflection signs:
- Revenue $13.6B beat by $1.4B
- Non-GAAP EPS $0.29 vs. breakeven guide
- Q2 2026 guide raised: $13.8–14.8B revenue + $0.20 EPS (vs. $0.09 consensus)
- "Demand outpacing supply across all businesses" — first such commentary since 2021
The defining 2026–27 narrative:
- 18A external customer wins — Microsoft, Boeing, government, Terafab, and others; each major customer announcement could meaningfully re-rate.
- Fab utilization recovery — Fixed costs at Arizona + Ohio require utilization >80% to reach margin breakeven.
- DCAI + CCG product roadmap execution — Granite Rapids server, Panther Lake AI PC client.
Forward Estimates
FY2026 Consensus (post Q1 beat):
- Revenue: ~$57–60B (+8–13%)
- Non-GAAP EPS: ~$1.20–1.60 (recovery from $0.42 FY25 base)
- FCF: -$2B to flat (further improvement; positive in 2027)
Bull case: 18A wins major foundry customers (rumored: Microsoft + Apple + others); DCAI continues 30%+ growth; Lip-Bu Tan delivers cultural + operational turnaround; multiple expands to 25x P/E on $3+ EPS by FY27; stock could reach $100+ vs. ~$35 currently. Bear case: 18A external wins remain limited; AMD continues taking share; TSMC dominance reinforces; multi-year FCF burn forces additional dilution; stock stays $20–30 range.
Deeper Financial Analysis
The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $INTC.
Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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