Marathon Petroleum Corporation
MPCFinancial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$34.2B
Q1 2026 · +8.5% YoY · Beat consensus by 120%
TTM ROIC
14.5%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital; blended R&M (~$16B IC, ~20% ROIC) + MPLX (~$37B IC, ~11-12% ROIC), weighted by capital deployed · WACC ~7% · Moat spread +7.5pp
Financial Snapshot
ticker: MPC step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) — Financial Snapshot
Income Statement Summary
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY (25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $180.0B | $148.4B | $138.9B | $132.7B | -4.4% |
| Throughput (MMbbl/d) | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | +3% |
| R&M Margin per bbl | $30.21 | $19.69 | $14.20 | $16.40 | +15% |
| Adj EBITDA | $24.7B | $17.7B | $11.4B | $12.0B | +5% |
| Net Income | $14.5B | $9.7B | $3.4B | $4.0B | +18% |
| Diluted EPS | $25.16 | $23.63 | $10.08 | $13.22 | +31% |
Q4 25 R&M margin $18.65/bbl (vs $12.93 Q4 24); Q1 26 strong on Middle East geopolitical premium. Crack spread normalization underpins 2026 EPS ~$21 consensus.
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $8.3B |
| Capex | ~$2.5B |
| Free Cash Flow | ~$5.8B |
| Cash & Equivalents | ~$5.5B |
| Total Debt (including MPLX) | ~$30B |
| MPLX Distributions to MPC | ~$2.8B annually (2025); $3.5B+ target |
Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~11x | EV/EBITDA: ~7x | FCF Yield: ~7%
- Revenue Growth (TTM): -4.4% | Op Margin: ~5%
- Dividend Yield: ~2.0% | Dividend: $4.20/share
- $4.5B 2025 capital returns; $5B new buyback auth + $8.6B total
Growth Profile
Refining cycle driver: crack spreads + sour crude differentials. 2026 EPS doubling potential ($10.70 → $21) based on Gulf Coast tightness + Venezuelan crude optionality. MPLX distributions stable + growing ($2.8B → $3.5B annual to MPC). Capital allocation: $8.6B buyback authorization = ~10% market cap. Aggressive return of capital with refining cycle.
Forward Estimates
- FY 2026: Adj EPS $17-21 (range reflects crack spread variability)
- FY 2027: Normalize toward $13-15 (mid-cycle crack assumption)
- Bull case: $244 mean price target, $331 high (Gulf Coast tight); Bear: $174 (crack normalization)
- MPC has unmatched earnings leverage to crack spreads in absolute dollars
Deeper Financial Analysis
The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $MPC.
Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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