Packaging Corporation of America

PKG
Financial Analysis · Updated May 13, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$2.4B
Q1 2026 · +10.6% YoY
TTM ROIC
10.2%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (NOPAT = Operating Income × (1 – Tax Rate); Invested Capital = Total Equity + Net Debt) · WACC ~7.5% · Moat spread +2.7pp

Financial Snapshot

ticker: PKG step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue $8.48B $7.80B $8.38B +7.4%
Gross Margin ~24% ~20% ~23%
Operating Margin ~17.5% ~12.4% ~13.5%
Net Income ~$1.0B ~$700M $805M +15%
EPS (diluted) ~$10.70 ~$7.80 $8.93 +14.5%

2023 revenue and earnings declined due to a cyclical containerboard price downturn and demand softness post-COVID inventory destocking. Recovery in 2024 driven by price increases and demand normalization.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$1.19B
Free Cash Flow ~$522M
Capital Expenditures ~$670M
Cash & Equivalents ~$800M
Total Debt ~$3.5B (elevated post-Greif)

FCF declined in FY2024 vs. FY2023 ($847M) due to higher capex for capacity expansion ahead of the Greif acquisition.

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~19x | EV/EBITDA: ~12x | Dividend Yield: ~1.8%
  • Revenue Growth (FY2024): +7.4% | FCF Margin: ~6%
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin: ~24% (industry-leading)

Growth Profile

PCA's revenues are cyclically sensitive to containerboard pricing and packaging demand. FY2023 saw a sharp decline from FY2022 peaks as containerboard prices fell 30%+ from cycle highs and customers destocked. FY2024 recovered as prices stabilized and e-commerce demand normalized. The late-2025 Greif containerboard acquisition adds ~$1B in incremental revenue at estimated $50M in annual synergies, pushing TTM revenue toward $9.2B by Q1 2026. The March 2026 $70/ton containerboard price increase is the key FY2026 earnings catalyst.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2025 Revenue: $8.99B (actual, +7.2% YoY)
  • FY2026 Revenue: ~$10B+ (Greif full-year contribution + price increase)
  • March 2026 price increase ($70/ton): Expected to add materially to H2 2026 EBITDA
  • Q1 2026 EPS: $1.92 (down from $2.27 in Q1 2025 — Greif integration costs pressuring near-term margins)
  • Consensus: 11 of 15 analysts rate Buy; strong institutional ownership (88%+)

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $PKG.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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Markdown: /stocks/pkg/financials/md · → thesis · → memo