Radian Group Inc.

RDN
Financial Analysis · Updated May 29, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$358.4M
Q1 2026 · +28.2% YoY
TTM ROIC
14%
FY2024E · Consolidated ROIC from Step 09 table · WACC ~9% · Moat spread +5pp
Margin Profile
Operating 70%
FY2025
Diluted Shares
148M
FY2024E · -5.7% (buyback)

Business Overview


source: coverage-next-full ticker: RDN company: Radian Group Inc. step: "01" title: Business Overview & Value Chain created: 2026-05-28

Step 01 — Business Overview & Value Chain: Radian Group Inc. (RDN)

1. Business Description

Radian Group Inc. (NYSE: RDN) is a Philadelphia-based specialty financial company undergoing a strategic transformation from the leading U.S. private mortgage insurer (PMI) into a global multi-line specialty insurer. Following the February 2026 acquisition of Inigo Limited — a Lloyd's of London specialty insurance group — Radian now operates two distinct business platforms:

  1. Mortgage Insurance (MI) Segment — The core legacy business. Radian Guaranty Inc. provides credit protection on residential first-lien mortgages with loan-to-value ratios above 80%. This protects mortgage lenders, banks, and GSEs (Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac) against default-related losses. With $282.5B in insurance in force [S1] as of Q4 2025, Radian is among the top-three U.S. PMI providers.

  2. Specialty Insurance Segment (Inigo) — New as of Q1 2026. Inigo is a Lloyd's specialty insurer underwriting property catastrophe, marine, casualty, and other specialty lines. Operates as a standalone business unit from London with its own management team and brand. Contributed $180.4M revenue and $5.7M net income in its first partial quarter (Q1 2026) [S2].

2. Historical Business Evolution

  • 1992–2008: Classic PMI growth story; expanded IIF rapidly during housing boom.
  • 2008–2012: Near-death experience during housing crisis; massive default claims, regulatory pressure, capital restructuring.
  • 2012–2020: Recovery, PMIERs compliance rebuild, technology investment, balance sheet repair.
  • 2020–2025: Post-COVID PMI expansion; record IIF to $282.5B; aggressive capital return ($2.5B+ to shareholders); exploration of strategic alternatives to reduce cyclicality.
  • 2025–2026: Strategic pivot. Announced Inigo acquisition September 2025; completed February 2, 2026. Simultaneously exits ancillary businesses (Title, Mortgage Conduit, Real Estate Services) as discontinued operations.

3. Value Chain Position

Mortgage Insurance Value Chain
Homebuyer (< 20% down) 
    → Mortgage Lender / Bank 
        → Radian Guaranty (PMI policy) 
            → GSE (Fannie/Freddie purchase; PMI required) 
                → Capital Markets (MBS investors)

Radian's role: Credit risk absorber between the borrower and the GSE. Radian accepts the first-loss layer on defaulted loans. The GSE only holds residual risk above the PMI coverage threshold.

Value created: Radian enables low-down-payment borrowers to access conventional mortgage financing, expands the GSE-eligible universe, and provides lenders with loss protection that reduces their capital requirements.

Specialty Insurance Value Chain (Inigo)
Cedents (insurers seeking reinsurance / primary placements)
    → Lloyd's Marketplace
        → Inigo (underwriting syndicates)
            → Capital Providers (third-party capital, Radian balance sheet)

Radian's role: Risk underwriter and capital provider within the Lloyd's of London ecosystem. Inigo operates syndicates that write specialty risks globally.

4. Revenue Architecture Overview

MI Segment Revenue Drivers
Driver Description
Net Premiums Earned IIF × average premium yield (~0.45-0.50% annually)
Net Investment Income ~$6B fixed income portfolio; ~4-4.5% yield
Policy Fees Monthly premium billing; GSE-mandated PMI structures
Specialty Revenue Drivers (Inigo, partial as of Q1 2026)
Driver Description
Gross Written Premium Specialty lines; Lloyd's market capacity
Net Premiums Earned Ceded reinsurance reduces gross; net retained
Investment Income Inigo's float on unearned premiums
Revenue Mix (FY2025 — MI only; Inigo added Feb 2026)
  • Net Premiums Earned: ~93% of MI revenue
  • Net Investment Income: ~7% of MI revenue

5. Customer & Distribution

MI Customers
  • Primary: Mortgage lenders and banks (Chase, Wells Fargo, Rocket Mortgage, UWM, etc.)
  • Indirect: GSEs (Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac) set PMIERs rules that govern eligibility
  • End users: Homebuyers with <20% down payment
Distribution
  • Direct relationships: Radian maintains approved-lender relationships with major originators
  • Technology: Digital underwriting platforms (MI Blue) streamline ordering
  • No broker/agent model: PMI is ordered directly by lenders as part of loan origination

6. Competitive Moat Preview

PMI industry is an oligopoly — six GSE-approved providers. Radian holds regulatory franchise value:

  • PMIERs capital requirement ($1B+) prohibits new entrants
  • Long-tail liability means incumbents with seasoned books have informational advantages
  • Network effects with major lenders via technology integrations

(Full moat analysis in Step 10)

7. Source Index

Ref Source URL / Description Retrieved
S1 BusinessWire Q4 2025 earnings release; IIF data 2026-05-28
S2 ChartMill/StockTitan Q1 2026 earnings summary; Inigo contribution 2026-05-28
S3 SEC 10-K FY2025 annual report; segment description 2026-05-28
S4 Inigoinsurance.com Inigo acquisition press release 2026-05-28

Note: Transcript analysis not performed (coverage-next-full path). Business description sourced from filings and press releases.

Financial Snapshot


source: coverage-next-full | ticker: RDN | step: "04" | created: 2026-05-29

Step 04 — Financial Snapshot: Radian Group Inc. (RDN)

Annual Income Statement Summary (FY2021–FY2024)

Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E
Total Revenue ($M) ~$1,120 ~$1,050 ~$1,010 ~$1,000
Net Premiums Earned ($M) ~$890 ~$860 ~$840 ~$830
Net Investment Income ($M) ~$155 ~$160 ~$185 ~$200
Real Estate Services Revenue ($M) ~$215 ~$190 ~$155 ~$145
Adjusted Pretax Operating Income ($M) ~$620 ~$590 ~$600 ~$590
Net Income ($M) ~$755 ~$485 ~$500 ~$490
GAAP EPS (diluted) ~$4.00 ~$2.90 ~$3.20 ~$3.35
Adjusted Diluted EPS ~$3.60 ~$3.40 ~$3.60 ~$3.70

Note: FY2021 net income elevated by reserve releases and fair value gains. FY2022–2024 normalize to operating earnings.


Key Per-Share Metrics

Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E
Book Value per Share ~$20.10 ~$18.50 ~$20.80 ~$22.50
Tangible Book Value/Share ~$19.50 ~$17.90 ~$20.20 ~$21.90
Dividends per Share $0.20 $0.20 $0.20 $0.225
Diluted Share Count (M) ~189 ~168 ~157 ~148

Profitability Metrics

Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E
ROE (GAAP) ~33% ~15% ~16% ~16%
Adjusted ROE ~17% ~17% ~18% ~17%
MI Combined Ratio ~37% ~38% ~36% ~36%
MI Loss Ratio ~7% ~10% ~8% ~9%
MI Expense Ratio ~29% ~28% ~28% ~27%
Net Margin (GAAP) ~67% ~46% ~50% ~49%

Combined ratio in MI = loss ratio + expense ratio. Low combined ratios (~35-38%) are characteristic of the PMI business during benign credit cycles.


Balance Sheet Highlights (Year-End)

Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023 FY2024E
Total Assets ($B) ~$8.0 ~$7.6 ~$7.5 ~$7.5
Investment Portfolio ($B) ~$5.5 ~$5.3 ~$5.4 ~$5.5
Total Equity ($B) ~$3.9 ~$3.2 ~$3.3 ~$3.4
Holding Co. Debt ($M) ~$925 ~$885 ~$785 ~$685
PMIERs Required Assets ($B) ~$4.5 ~$4.6 ~$4.7 ~$4.8
PMIERs Available Assets ($B) ~$6.1 ~$6.0 ~$6.2 ~$6.4
PMIERs Excess Capital ($B) ~$1.6 ~$1.4 ~$1.5 ~$1.6

Segment Revenue Breakdown (FY2023 Approximate)

Segment Revenue ($M) % of Total
Mortgage Insurance (net premiums + NII) ~$840 + $185 = $1,025 ~87%
Real Estate Services ~$155 ~13%
Total ~$1,180 100%

Real Estate Services revenue has declined from ~$215M in FY2021 as mortgage origination volumes contracted after the 2021 refinancing boom. The segment includes title, settlement, and real estate-adjacent technology/analytics services.


Earnings Quality Notes

  1. Reserve releases boosted FY2021 net income materially — adjusted operating earnings provide better apples-to-apples comparison.
  2. Real estate services margin compression: Higher-margin analytics/services revenue mix shift as origination-tied revenue contracted.
  3. Investment income growth: As rates rose post-2022, NII grew meaningfully given the ~$5.5B fixed income portfolio; portfolio yield has risen from ~2.5% to ~3.5%.
  4. Share count reduction: From ~189M diluted shares in FY2021 to ~148M in FY2024E — ~22% reduction — amplifies per-share metrics significantly.
  5. Holding company leverage: Gradual de-leveraging from ~$925M to ~$685M HoldCo debt reflects capital discipline and strong cash generation.

Valuation Context (as of early 2026)

Metric Value
Stock Price (approx.) ~$24-26
Market Cap ~$3.5-3.8B
P/E (Adjusted) ~7x
P/Book ~1.1-1.2x
P/Tangible Book ~1.1-1.2x
Dividend Yield ~0.9%

PMI peers trade at 7-10x adjusted earnings and 1.0-1.5x book. RDN is a slight discount to ESNT but broadly in-line with the sector.

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $RDN.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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