Starbucks Corporation

SBUX
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$9.9B
Q2 FY2026 · +6% YoY
TTM ROIC
7.4%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (Adjusted NOPAT ~$2.0B / Invested Capital ~$27B) · WACC ~9.5% · Moat spread +-2.1pp

Financial Snapshot

ticker: SBUX step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) — Financial Snapshot

(Starbucks' fiscal year ends in late September; FY2025 ended ~Sept 28, 2025.)

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY (FY25)
Revenue $35.98B $36.18B $36.7B +1.4%
Global Comp Sales +8% -1% -1% (improving Q4) inflection
Operating Margin 16.3% 15.0% ~12% compressed (turnaround investment)
Adjusted EPS $3.79 $3.31 ~$2.30 down (investment year)

Q1 + Q2 FY2026 Results

Metric Q1 FY26 Q2 FY26
Revenue Growth — +6%
Global Comp Sales — +6.2%
US Same-Store Sales — +7.1%
US Transaction Growth — +4.3% (2nd straight quarter of traffic growth)
North America Q4 FY25 Revenue $6.9B —
North America Q4 FY25 Growth +3% —

FY2026 Guidance (Raised Q2)

Metric 2026 Guide
Global Same-Store Sales +5%+ (raised from +3%)
US Same-Store Sales +5%+
Adjusted EPS $2.25–2.45 (raised from $2.15–2.40)
China JV Close Q2 FY26 (Boyu Capital 60%, SBUX 40%)

Cash Flow & Capital Allocation (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$5.5B
Capital Expenditures ~$2.7B (new stores + remodels)
Free Cash Flow ~$2.8B
Share Repurchases ~$0.5B (reduced during turnaround)
Dividends Paid ~$2.7B
Quarterly Dividend $0.61
Annual Dividend $2.44
Dividend Yield ~2.6%
Cash & Marketable Securities ~$3.5B
Total Debt ~$16B
Net Debt / EBITDA ~2.0x

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~43x (FY26E adjusted EPS midpoint $2.35) | EV/EBITDA: ~21x | FCF Yield: ~2.5%
  • Revenue Growth (FY25): +1.4% (transition year)
  • Operating Margin: ~12% (compressed; recovering)
  • Dividend Yield: ~2.6%
  • ROE: ~30%+ (high asset turnover)

Growth Profile

FY25 was the investment year for the turnaround:

  • Revenue +1.4% to $36.7B
  • Operating margin compressed to ~12% (from ~15% in FY24, ~16% in FY23) on increased staffing + technology + remodels + marketing
  • Q4 FY25 global comp turned positive for first time in 7 quarters (+1%)
  • Niccol's "Back to Starbucks" strategy paid for in FY25 + early FY26

The 2026 setup is materially better:

  • Q2 FY26 +6.2% global comp + 7.1% US comp + 4.3% US transaction growth
  • China JV closing in Q2 FY26 — refocuses management on US + reduces consolidated exposure to Luckin/Cotti pricing wars
  • Margin recovery starting in H2 FY26 as investments roll off + comp leverage builds
  • Raised FY26 EPS guide $2.25–2.45 (vs. $2.15–2.40 prior)

Forward Estimates

FY2026 Guide (raised in Q2):

  • Global Same-Store Sales: +5%+
  • US Same-Store Sales: +5%+
  • Adjusted EPS: $2.25–2.45

Bull case: Niccol turnaround sustains; FY27 comp +5%+; margin recovers to ~14-15%; FY28 EPS reaches $3.50+; multiple expands to 28x P/E; stock could reach $100+. Bear case: Niccol turnaround stalls; comp decelerates back to flat; China JV economics worse than expected; margin recovery limited to 13%; multiple compresses to 30x; stock stays $80-90. Consensus targets ~$110–130 vs. trading ~$95–105 (~10–30% implied upside).

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $SBUX.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
GET /api/v1/research/SBUX/fundamental$1.00 · Bearer token required
Markdown: /stocks/sbux/financials/md · → thesis · → memo