Constellation Brands Inc.

STZ
Financial Analysis · Updated May 13, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$1.9B
Q4 FY2026 · -11.3% YoY
TTM ROIC
11.3%
FY2026 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (Equity + Net Debt); NOPAT = Operating Income × (1 - 23% tax rate) · WACC ~6.25% · Moat spread +4.8pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: STZ step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Note: Constellation fiscal year ends February 28/29. FY2024 = March 2023–Feb 2024; FY2025 = March 2024–Feb 2025.

Metric FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY
Revenue $9.45B $9.96B $10.21B +2.5%
Gross Margin ~51% ~52% ~52% flat
Operating Margin ~29% ~31% ~32% +100bps
Net Income (GAAP) ~$2.1B ~$2.3B ~$(0.1B)*
Comparable EPS ~$11.20 ~$12.90 $13.78 +7%

FY2025 GAAP net income negative due to $3B+ non-cash goodwill impairment charges on the Wine & Spirits segment. Comparable (adjusted) EPS of $13.78 reflects strong underlying beer business performance.

FY2026 (ended Feb 2026): Revenue $9.14B (-10.5%, reflecting wine divestitures); Comparable EPS guidance $11.30–$11.60 (declining from tariffs and Hispanic consumer volume weakness).

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$2.4B
Free Cash Flow $1.97B
FCF Margin ~19%
Cash & Equivalents ~$0.3B
Total Debt ~$11.5B
Net Debt / EBITDA ~3.5x

Key Ratios (approximate, based on FY2025)

  • P/E (comparable): ~13–15x | FCF Yield: ~8–9% at current market cap
  • EV/EBITDA: ~11x | Dividend Yield: ~2.5%
  • Revenue Growth (FY2025): +2.5% | Beer segment: ~+5–6% organic
  • Leverage: ~3.5x net debt/EBITDA (elevated due to Mexico brewery expansion capex)

Growth Profile

Constellation's beer business delivered consistent 5–7% organic revenue growth for most of the 2018–2024 period, driven by Modelo Especial's market share gains. FY2026 marked a turning point: a 25% tariff on Mexican imports (announced April 2025) and measurable pullback among Hispanic consumers amid immigration enforcement created volume weakness — the first real deceleration in the Modelo story. Management withdrew its FY2028 growth guidance, guided comparable EPS down to $11.30–$11.60 (from $13.78 in FY2025), and deferred capex decisions on the Veracruz brewery expansion. FY2026 FCF was $1.79B; FY2027 guided $1.6–$1.7B.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2027: Comparable EPS ~$10.50–$12.00 (wide range reflecting tariff uncertainty); FCF ~$1.6–1.7B
  • FY2028 target (withdrawn): Management previously guided to $20+ comparable EPS by FY2028; guidance withdrawn April 2026 due to tariff and macro uncertainty
  • Wine divestitures: Expected to close in FY2026-FY2027; proceeds to reduce $11.5B debt load; $200M in annualized cost savings expected by FY2028
  • FIFA World Cup 2026: Scheduled for summer 2026 in U.S./Canada/Mexico — natural marketing event for beer brands; could catalyze consumption occasion recovery

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $STZ.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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