Valero Energy Corporation

VLO
Financial Analysis · Updated May 13, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$30.0B
Q1 2025 · -6.25% YoY
TTM ROIC
7%
FY2024 · NOPAT / Invested Capital · WACC ~9.5% · Moat spread +-2pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: VLO step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Valero Energy (VLO) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue $176.4B $144.8B $129.9B -10.3%
Gross Margin ~6.5% ~6.1% ~4.0% -2.1pp
Operating Margin ~7.3% ~7.0% ~2.8% -4.2pp
Net Income $11.5B $8.8B $2.8B -68%
EPS (diluted) $29.04 $24.92 $8.58 -66%

Note: FY2022 was an exceptional year due to record crack spreads post-Russia/Ukraine invasion. FY2023 normalized with strong but less extraordinary margins. FY2024 saw significant refining margin compression as global refined product oversupply, rising refinery utilization in Asia/Middle East, and slowing fuel demand weighed on crack spreads. Net income declined ~68% from FY2023 to FY2024.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$3.5B
Free Cash Flow ~$2.4B
Cash & Equivalents ~$3.3B
Total Debt ~$9.0B

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~20x (FY2024 trough EPS) | EV/EBITDA: ~8x | FCF Yield: ~5%
  • Normalized P/E: ~7-8x (FY2023 earnings) | Dividend Yield: ~2.8%
  • Revenue Growth (FY2024): -10.3% (driven by lower crude + product prices)

Growth Profile

Valero's revenue is primarily driven by crude oil and refined product prices rather than volume growth. The company's refinery throughput capacity (~3.2M bbl/day) is relatively stable; earnings growth comes from: (1) margin cycle recovery as crack spreads normalize, (2) renewable diesel/SAF volume and LCFS/RIN economics, (3) operational efficiency improvements (FCC optimization, energy savings), and (4) share repurchases that amplify per-share EPS. The company maintains a disciplined 40–50% of operating cash flow payout target (dividends + buybacks). Recently raised quarterly dividend from $1.13 to $1.20/share.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2025E: Revenue ~$125–135B (lower crude prices); EPS consensus ~$10–14 (dependent on crack spread trajectory)
  • FY2026E: Earnings recovery expected if refining margins normalize; $2.4B capex budget targeting renewable fuels and refinery optimization
  • Q2 2025 refining margin: ~$12.35/barrel (vs. trough levels in late 2024) — showing margin recovery early-to-mid 2025

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $VLO.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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