Affirm Holdings Inc.

AFRM
Financial Analysis · Updated May 18, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$1.0B
Q3 FY2026 · +32.7% YoY
TTM ROIC
1.7%
FY2025 · ROE (Net Income / Shareholders' Equity); standard ROIC not applicable for fintech lender · WACC ~13.5% · Moat spread +-11.3pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: AFRM step: 04 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) — Financial Snapshot

Note: Affirm's fiscal year ends June 30.

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue $1.35B $1.59B $2.32B +46%
Gross Margin ~57% ~45% ~64% recovering
GAAP Operating Margin ~-50% ~-35% ~-15% improving
GAAP Net Income ~-$0.7B ~-$0.5B ~-$0.4B improving
Basic EPS negative negative negative

FY2025: Revenue $3.224B (+39% YoY); gross margin improving. Q2 FY2026 (Dec 2025): Revenue $1.1B (+27% YoY); Basic EPS $0.39 — first positive GAAP quarters emerging. FY2026 guidance twice raised. B2B vertical: "other" category grew 81% YoY. Affirm Card GMV doubled YoY.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Loan Portfolio / GMV ~$25–30B annually (Gross Merchandise Volume)
Cash & Equivalents ~$2.8B
Total Debt (warehouse lines) ~$10B+ (funded by capital markets partners)
GAAP Net Income ~-$0.4B (improving)
Equity ~$4.5B

Affirm is a lending business: it funds loan portfolios through warehouse credit facilities and securitizations, then sells down risk to capital market partners. The balance sheet carries $10B+ in loan assets funded by debt — standard for consumer lending. Funding cost sensitivity is the primary financial risk: when interest rates rise, funding spreads compress margins. With rates declining in 2025–2026, funding costs are improving.

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: 79.5x (trailing; GAAP recently turning positive) | Price/Sales: ~6x | DCF: ~$41 (some estimates)
  • Revenue Growth (TTM): ~27–39% | Gross Margin: ~62–65%

Growth Profile

Affirm tripled revenue from $1.35B (FY2022) to $3.22B (FY2025) — extraordinary growth for a fintech — but the trajectory was non-linear: FY2023 gross margin collapsed to 45% when interest rates surged (funding costs rose faster than loan yields), then recovered to 64% as Affirm re-priced loans and secured better funding structures. GAAP profitability is now emerging: Q2 FY2026 EPS $0.39. FY2026 guidance twice raised, reflecting management confidence in the consumer credit quality and merchant expansion pipeline.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026: Revenue ~$3.7–4.0B (+15–25% YoY); B2B + Affirm Card + International as new growth legs
  • GAAP profitability: achieving in FY2026 as revenue scale absorbs fixed costs
  • International expansion: Shopify partnership in 5+ new countries by end of FY2026
  • Analyst median PT: $82.50 (range $53–105; 22 Buy / 8 Hold / 0 Sell; 39 analysts)
  • GMV trajectory: $40B+ by FY2026 as Affirm Card and B2B scale

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $AFRM.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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