Affirm Holdings Inc.

AFRM
Financial Analysis · Updated May 18, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$1.0B
Q3 FY2026 · +32.7% YoY
TTM ROIC
1.7%
FY2025 · Net Income / Shareholders' Equity (ROE proxy; standard ROIC not applicable to fintech lender) · WACC ~13.5% · Moat spread +-11.3pp
Margin Profile
Gross 64%
Operating -8%
FCF 18.7%
FY2025
Net Debt
$7.2B
Cash $1.7B · Debt $8.9B · Q3 FY2026 (Mar 2026)
Diluted Shares
337M
Q3 FY2026 (Mar 2026)

Business Overview


ticker: AFRM step: 01 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) — Business Overview

Business Description

Affirm is the leading U.S. Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) platform, offering transparent installment loans with no hidden fees, no late fees, and no compound interest at the point of sale — online and now offline via the Affirm Card (Debit+). Affirm holds ~1/3 of U.S. BNPL payment value and >50% of U.S. BNPL revenue, serving 24.1M active consumers and 419,000 merchants. FY2025 (ended June 2025) revenue was $3.224B (+39% YoY). The Shopify partnership (exclusive pay-over-time provider) is expanding internationally to Canada, UK, Australia, France, Germany, and Netherlands — a major incremental growth vector.

Revenue Model

Three revenue streams: (1) Interest income — charged on merchant-funded or consumer-paid interest loans (the majority of revenue for Peloton-type 0% APR deals, interest is paid by merchant); (2) Merchant network revenue — fees paid by merchants for Affirm integration and each transaction (merchants pay to offer 0% financing as it increases conversion); (3) Gains on loan sales — Affirm sells loan portfolios to capital market partners (banks, asset managers) at a gain. Revenue grew from $1.35B (FY2022) to $3.22B (FY2025) — 2.4x in 3 years.

Products & Services

  • Adaptive Checkout — displays installment payment options at merchant checkout (online and in-app); "Pay in 4" or longer-term plans
  • Affirm Card (Debit+) — physical/virtual card enabling BNPL at any Visa-accepting merchant offline; GMV doubled YoY; unlocks offline retail TAM
  • 0% APR Loans — merchant-subsidized 0% financing at checkout; ~50% of transactions by count; Peloton, Samsung, and others
  • High Yield Savings — Affirm savings account; builds consumer relationship between purchases
  • B2B Financing — installment financing for business purchases; "other" category grew 81% YoY
  • Affirm International — Shopify expansion to Canada, UK, Australia, France, Germany, Netherlands

Customer Base & Go-to-Market

24.1M active consumers; 419,000 merchants. Key merchant partnerships: Shopify (exclusive BNPL provider), Amazon (BNPL at checkout), Apple Pay integration, Walmart. Consumer adoption: younger demographics (Gen Z, Millennials) who prefer installment transparency over revolving credit. B2B is a new segment growing rapidly. Shopify integration embeds Affirm into 2M+ merchant storefronts globally.

Competitive Position

Affirm competes against Klarna (largest global BNPL, IPO pending), Afterpay (Square/Block), PayPal BNPL, Apple Pay Later (discontinued), and Zip. Affirm's differentiation: longer-term loans (6–48 months vs. Pay-in-4 competitors), transparent underwriting (individual loan decisions not revolving credit), the Affirm Card for offline use, and the deep Shopify and Amazon partnership moats. Affirm claims ~50% of U.S. BNPL revenue despite intense competition — suggesting better monetization per transaction than competitors.

Key Facts

  • Founded: 2012
  • Headquarters: San Francisco, California
  • Employees: ~2,000
  • Exchange: NASDAQ
  • Sector / Industry: Financials / Fintech — Buy Now, Pay Later
  • Market Cap: ~$20B (at ~$67/share)

Financial Snapshot


ticker: AFRM step: 04 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

Affirm Holdings, Inc. (AFRM) — Financial Snapshot

Note: Affirm's fiscal year ends June 30.

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue $1.35B $1.59B $2.32B +46%
Gross Margin ~57% ~45% ~64% recovering
GAAP Operating Margin ~-50% ~-35% ~-15% improving
GAAP Net Income ~-$0.7B ~-$0.5B ~-$0.4B improving
Basic EPS negative negative negative

FY2025: Revenue $3.224B (+39% YoY); gross margin improving. Q2 FY2026 (Dec 2025): Revenue $1.1B (+27% YoY); Basic EPS $0.39 — first positive GAAP quarters emerging. FY2026 guidance twice raised. B2B vertical: "other" category grew 81% YoY. Affirm Card GMV doubled YoY.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Loan Portfolio / GMV ~$25–30B annually (Gross Merchandise Volume)
Cash & Equivalents ~$2.8B
Total Debt (warehouse lines) ~$10B+ (funded by capital markets partners)
GAAP Net Income ~-$0.4B (improving)
Equity ~$4.5B

Affirm is a lending business: it funds loan portfolios through warehouse credit facilities and securitizations, then sells down risk to capital market partners. The balance sheet carries $10B+ in loan assets funded by debt — standard for consumer lending. Funding cost sensitivity is the primary financial risk: when interest rates rise, funding spreads compress margins. With rates declining in 2025–2026, funding costs are improving.

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: 79.5x (trailing; GAAP recently turning positive) | Price/Sales: ~6x | DCF: ~$41 (some estimates)
  • Revenue Growth (TTM): ~27–39% | Gross Margin: ~62–65%

Growth Profile

Affirm tripled revenue from $1.35B (FY2022) to $3.22B (FY2025) — extraordinary growth for a fintech — but the trajectory was non-linear: FY2023 gross margin collapsed to 45% when interest rates surged (funding costs rose faster than loan yields), then recovered to 64% as Affirm re-priced loans and secured better funding structures. GAAP profitability is now emerging: Q2 FY2026 EPS $0.39. FY2026 guidance twice raised, reflecting management confidence in the consumer credit quality and merchant expansion pipeline.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026: Revenue ~$3.7–4.0B (+15–25% YoY); B2B + Affirm Card + International as new growth legs
  • GAAP profitability: achieving in FY2026 as revenue scale absorbs fixed costs
  • International expansion: Shopify partnership in 5+ new countries by end of FY2026
  • Analyst median PT: $82.50 (range $53–105; 22 Buy / 8 Hold / 0 Sell; 39 analysts)
  • GMV trajectory: $40B+ by FY2026 as Affirm Card and B2B scale

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $AFRM.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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