# Century Aluminum Company (CENX) — Financial Analysis

**Exchange:** NASDAQ  
**Coverage as of:** 2026-Q2  
**Updated:** 2026-05-29  
**Tier:** Free primer (step 2 of 19)  
**Sibling pages:** /stocks/CENX/thesis · /stocks/CENX/memo

## Financial Snapshot

---
source: coverage-next-full
ticker: CENX
step: "04"
title: Financial Snapshot — 3-Year P&L Summary
created: 2026-05-29
---

### Step 04 — Financial Snapshot

#### 3-Year Income Statement Summary

| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024E |
|--------|--------|--------|---------|
| Revenue | ~$2.35B | ~$1.85B | ~$1.95–2.05B |
| Cost of Goods Sold | ~$1.90B | ~$1.70B | ~$1.75–1.85B |
| Gross Profit | ~$450M | ~$155M | ~$150–200M |
| Gross Margin | ~19% | ~8% | ~8–10% |
| SG&A / Other OpEx | ~$60M | ~$55M | ~$55M |
| EBITDA | ~$450M | ~$120–140M | ~$120–160M |
| EBITDA Margin | ~19% | ~7% | ~6–8% |
| D&A | ~$80–90M | ~$80M | ~$80M |
| EBIT | ~$360M | ~$40–60M | ~$40–80M |
| Interest Expense | ~$30–40M | ~$35M | ~$35M |
| Pre-tax Income | ~$320–330M | ~$5–25M | ~$5–45M |
| Net Income | ~$270–300M | ~($10)–$15M | ~($5)–$30M |
| EPS (diluted) | ~$4.20–4.80 | ~($0.15)–$0.25 | ~($0.08)–$0.48 |
| Shares outstanding | ~63M | ~63M | ~63M |

*Note: All figures are estimates based on public filings and analyst data. FY2024E reflects mid-cycle LME environment (~$2,200–2,400/t) with partial Hawesville restart.*

#### Key Margin Analysis

##### FY2022: Peak Cycle
FY2022 was an exceptional year driven by:
- **LME aluminum spiked to $3,800/t in March 2022** (Russia/Ukraine disruption to Rusal supply)
- Annual average LME of ~$2,700/t — far above 5-year historical average
- **Midwest premium expanded** to ~$0.30–0.35/lb ($660–770/t) — historically high
- Revenue of ~$2.35B and EBITDA of ~$450M represented peak cycle performance
- Century repaid debt aggressively from free cash flow
- Even with power cost inflation beginning, spreads were wide enough for strong margins

##### FY2023: Normalization
FY2023 saw a sharp reversal:
- **LME fell to ~$2,100–2,300/t average** — down 15–20% from 2022 average
- **Midwest premium contracted to ~$0.10–0.15/lb** — down from 2022 peaks
- **Power costs remained elevated** — natural gas-driven electricity prices didn't normalize as quickly as LME/Midwest
- **Hawesville partially/fully curtailed** — reducing volume, but fixed costs persisted
- EBITDA compressed from ~$450M to ~$120–140M — a 70%+ decline on a ~20% revenue decline, illustrating extreme operating leverage
- Near-breakeven net income; possible small net loss on full-year basis

##### FY2024E: Stabilization
2024 trends:
- LME stabilizing in the $2,200–2,600/t range
- Midwest premium modest recovery to $0.12–0.18/lb
- Hawesville partial restart (100–120 kt of nameplate being brought back online)
- Power cost pressures moderating (gas prices normalized, new PPA terms)
- EBITDA recovery to $120–160M range — still well below 2022 peaks but business stabilizing
- Focus on capital preservation and DOE grant pursuit

#### EBITDA Bridge: FY2022 → FY2023

| Factor | Impact |
|--------|--------|
| LME price decline (~$400/t × ~600kt shipped) | -$240M |
| Midwest premium contraction (~$350/t × ~400kt US) | -$140M |
| Volume decline (Hawesville curtailment) | -$50M |
| Power cost inflation (partial offset) | -$60M |
| Cost reduction / efficiency measures | +$30M |
| Other | +$10M |
| **Net EBITDA change (approx.)** | **-$310M** |

This bridge illustrates why Century is one of the most operationally leveraged commodity equities available to public market investors.

#### Key Financial Ratios

| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024E |
|--------|--------|--------|---------|
| Revenue per metric ton (realized) | ~$3,900/t | ~$3,100/t | ~$3,200/t |
| Cash cost per metric ton | ~$3,100–3,200/t | ~$3,000–3,100/t | ~$2,950–3,050/t |
| Cash margin per metric ton | ~$700–800/t | ~$0–100/t | ~$150–250/t |
| EBITDA / ton | ~$720/t | ~$200/t | ~$200–270/t |
| Interest coverage (EBITDA/Interest) | ~11x | ~3.5x | ~3.5–4.5x |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | ~0.5x | ~3–4x | ~2.5–3.5x |
| CapEx as % of Revenue | ~3–4% | ~4–5% | ~4–5% |

#### Depreciation & Amortization

D&A runs approximately $80–90M per year, reflecting:
- Smelter potlining amortization (potlines are replaced every 6–10 years at significant cost; the amortization is substantial)
- Other fixed asset depreciation
- Capitalized restart costs being amortized as smelters are brought back online

**Potline capital cycle**: Replacing the carbon lining in an aluminum reduction cell ("potline rebuild") costs $50–150M per potline and is the dominant maintenance capital requirement for smelters. Century typically capitalizes these costs and amortizes over the pot life. This creates lumpy capex but relatively stable D&A.

#### Revenue & Earnings Cyclicality

Century's earnings are among the most volatile in the S&P 400 / Russell 2000 universe:
- EPS swings from +$4.80 (peak cycle) to ($0.50) (trough) are routine
- The stock therefore does not lend itself to traditional P/E valuation
- Appropriate frameworks: EV/EBITDA on mid-cycle EBITDA, price/book, and LME-to-NAV sensitivity analysis

**Mid-cycle EBITDA estimate (using $2,300/t LME, $0.15/lb Midwest premium, 600kt volume)**:
- Approximately $150–200M — this is the normalized earnings base the market should anchor to
- At 5–7x mid-cycle EBITDA, enterprise value would be $750M–$1.4B
- With ~$350–450M net debt, implied equity value $300M–$950M
- With ~63M shares, implied price range ~$5–$15 (wide range given commodity leverage)

## Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier ($1.00) adds 8 dimensions not included here:

- Revenue Breakdown — segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line margins
- Financial Trends — QoQ momentum, leading indicators, inflection points
- Balance Sheet — debt structure, dilution risk, working capital dynamics
- Capital Allocation — ROIC, buyback cadence, reinvestment efficiency
- Earnings Analysis — beats/misses, guidance vs actuals, transcript highlights
- Competitive Positioning — market share, pricing power, peer benchmarks
- Industry Context — TAM, sector tailwinds/headwinds, regulatory backdrop

**API endpoint:** GET /api/v1/research/CENX/fundamental

## Navigation

- Overview: /stocks/CENX
- Financials (this page): /stocks/CENX/financials
- Thesis: /stocks/CENX/thesis
- Investment Memo: /stocks/CENX/memo
- Coverage universe: /stocks