Commercial Metals Company

CMC
Financial Analysis · Updated May 29, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$1.7B
Q4 FY2024 · -8.5% YoY
TTM ROIC
20.8%
FY2024 · NOPAT / Average Invested Capital; NOPAT = EBIT × (1 – Tax Rate); Invested Capital = Total Equity + Total Debt – Cash & Equivalents · WACC ~9% · Moat spread +11.8pp
DCF Fair Value
$89
Base case · WACC 9.2% · Terminal 2% · +26.2% vs. current price
Margin Profile
Gross 20.6%
Operating 14.8%
FCF 8.3%
FY2024
Net Debt
$730M
Cash $820M · Debt $1.6B · FY2024
Diluted Shares
112M
FY2024 · -2.6% (buyback)

Business Overview


source: coverage-next-full ticker: CMC step: "01" title: Business Overview created: 2026-05-29

Step 01 — Business Overview

Company at a Glance

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) is a leading American steel manufacturer and metal products distributor with over 110 years of operating history. The company operates a vertically integrated, electric arc furnace (EAF)-based steelmaking model that produces long steel products — primarily rebar, merchant bar, wire rod, and structural sections — serving construction markets in the United States and Europe (Poland). CMC is the largest domestic rebar producer in the US.

Market Position: #1 US rebar producer, Top 10 North American steel company by volume Annual Revenue: ~$6.8B (FY2024) EBITDA: ~$1.1B (FY2024, adjusted) Market Cap: ~$5.0–5.5B (as of 2025)

Business Segments

1. North America Steel (~75% of Revenue)

The North America Steel segment encompasses CMC's US and Canadian operations, which are the core of the business.

Steel Manufacturing (Mini-Mills) CMC operates multiple EAF mini-mills across the United States. Key mill locations include:

  • Mesa, Arizona (original mill)
  • Seguin, Texas (larger integrated mill)
  • Durant, Oklahoma
  • Nucor-style distributed mills in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic

Flagship Project — Arizona 2 Micro-Mill (Mesa, AZ): CMC opened its second Arizona micro-mill in 2023, representing a $500M+ investment and a revolutionary steelmaking approach. The micro-mill uses continuous casting and rolling (CCR) technology, eliminating the traditional reheat furnace and enabling production of rebar in coil form — dramatically lower energy consumption, lower CO2 per ton, and the ability to produce smaller diameter rebar with tighter tolerances. Capacity: ~500,000 tons/year.

Product Mix (North America):

  • Rebar (deformed reinforcing bar): ~55% of segment volume — primary product for concrete construction
  • Merchant bar quality (MBQ): angles, channels, flats, rounds for fabrication and manufacturing
  • Wire rod: coiled rod for wire drawing, fasteners, and fabrication
  • Structural sections: light angles and channels for construction

Downstream Fabrication: CMC operates approximately 55 rebar fabrication shops across the US, which cut, bend, and tie rebar to project specifications. This downstream integration creates stickier customer relationships (fabrication shops sell direct to contractors), reduces commodity price exposure, and generates higher value-added margins compared to straight mill-direct sales.

2. Europe Steel (~25% of Revenue)

CMC's European operations are centered in Poland, where the company has built a significant presence serving EU construction markets.

Key Operations:

  • Zawiercie (CMC Zawiercie): CMC's flagship Polish EAF mini-mill, one of the most modern in Central/Eastern Europe. The mill produces rebar, merchant bar, and wire rod for construction projects across Poland, Germany, the Czech Republic, and neighboring markets.
  • CMC Poland Downstream: Rebar fabrication and distribution network across Poland

EU Infrastructure Tailwind: Poland is a major beneficiary of EU Cohesion Funds and the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility, driving multi-year infrastructure investment. Road, rail, residential, and data center construction all consume rebar. CMC is uniquely positioned as a local producer vs. importers from Ukraine/Turkey.

Energy Exposure: Polish operations use electricity from the Polish grid, which is coal-heavy and subject to elevated European energy costs. This creates a cost headwind vs. US operations but is partially mitigated by favorable scrap sourcing from the industrial heartland of Central Europe.

Vertical Integration Model

CMC's supply chain integration is a key strategic differentiator:

Scrap Dealers → [CMC Scrap Procurement] → [EAF Mini-Mill] → [Rolling Mill] → [Finished Steel] → [Fabrication Shops] → [Construction Sites]

This integration achieves:

  1. Margin capture at multiple stages of the value chain
  2. Price pass-through — scrap cost moves broadly with steel selling prices (spread management)
  3. Customer lock-in — fabrication shop relationships with contractors/GCs
  4. Demand signal visibility — fabrication backlog is a leading indicator for mill volume

Leadership & Governance

  • Peter Matt — President & CEO (since November 2023; previously EVP & CFO)
  • Paul Lawrence — CFO
  • Barbara Smith — Former CEO (2017–2023); architect of the "CMC 2.0" transformation: portfolio rationalization, acquisition of Nucor's rebar assets, major CapEx investment
  • Board: 9 members; independent chairman; compensation tied to ROIC metrics

Why CMC Matters in This Cycle

CMC sits at the intersection of two powerful secular themes:

  1. US Infrastructure Renaissance: The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA, 2021) authorized $1.2 trillion in spending over 10 years, with rebar-intensive projects (roads, bridges, transit) as the primary beneficiary. The ramp-up in federally funded projects is still accelerating, providing visible multi-year volume support.
  2. Reshoring & Domestic Manufacturing Growth: New semiconductor fabs, EV battery plants, and data centers are rebar-consuming industrial construction projects concentrated in CMC's geographic markets (Southwest, Southeast).

Financial Snapshot


source: coverage-next-full ticker: CMC step: "04" title: Financial Snapshot created: 2026-05-29

Step 04 — Financial Snapshot

Three-Year Income Statement Summary

All figures in USD millions unless noted. Fiscal year ends August 31.

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024
Revenue $7,244M $7,300M $6,779M
Cost of Goods Sold $5,403M $5,605M $5,381M
Gross Profit $1,841M $1,695M $1,398M
Gross Margin 25.4% 23.2% 20.6%
SG&A $380M $385M $395M
Operating Income (EBIT) $1,461M $1,310M $1,003M
Operating Margin 20.2% 17.9% 14.8%
Interest Expense, net $55M $65M $75M
Other Income/(Expense) ($10M) ($5M) ($5M)
Pre-Tax Income $1,396M $1,240M $923M
Income Tax Expense $325M $287M $215M
Effective Tax Rate 23.3% 23.1% 23.3%
Net Income $1,071M $953M $708M
EPS (Diluted) $8.77 $8.26 $6.32
Shares Diluted (avg) 122M 115M 112M

Adjusted EBITDA

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024
Net Income $1,071M $953M $708M
+ Interest Expense $55M $65M $75M
+ Tax $325M $287M $215M
+ D&A ~$230M ~$250M ~$270M
EBITDA ~$1,681M ~$1,555M ~$1,268M
Adjusted EBITDA (excl. one-time) ~$1,680M ~$1,550M ~$1,250M
Adjusted EBITDA Margin 23.2% 21.2% 18.4%

Note: FY2022 represents the peak of the steel mini-mill profit cycle, with margins well above through-cycle averages. Management considers ~15–18% EBITDA margin as "normalized" at mid-cycle pricing and volumes.

Key Profitability Metrics

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024
Gross Margin 25.4% 23.2% 20.6%
EBITDA Margin 23.2% 21.2% 18.4%
EBIT Margin 20.2% 17.9% 14.8%
Net Margin 14.8% 13.1% 10.4%
ROIC (adj.) 35–40% 28–32% 22–25%
ROE ~55% ~40% ~28%

Three-Year Cash Flow Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024
Operating Cash Flow ~$1,050M ~$1,150M ~$1,100M
Capital Expenditures ($775M) ($680M) ($540M)
Free Cash Flow ~$275M ~$470M ~$560M
FCF Margin 3.8% 6.4% 8.3%
FCF Conversion (FCF/Net Income) 25.7% 49.3% 79.1%

Note on CapEx elevation: FY2022–FY2023 CapEx was elevated due to the Arizona 2 micro-mill construction ($500M+ total project). As that project wound down in FY2024, FCF conversion improved significantly. FY2025 CapEx guidance is ~$400–450M (Poland expansion + maintenance), pointing to continued FCF improvement.

Balance Sheet Snapshot (FY2024)

Item Balance
Cash & equivalents ~$820M
Total debt (gross) ~$1,550M
Net debt ~$730M
Net Debt / EBITDA ~0.6x
Total equity ~$3,000M
Total assets ~$5,800M
Book value per share ~$27.50

Revenue & Earnings Trends

Revenue Trend
FY2020: $4.4B  ↗
FY2021: $5.7B  ↗
FY2022: $7.2B  ↗ PEAK (high prices + high volume)
FY2023: $7.3B  → (price decline offset by volume)
FY2024: $6.8B  ↘ (price normalization continues)
FY2025E: $6.5–7.0B (stabilization + IIJA ramp)
EPS Trend (Diluted)
FY2020: $1.54  ↗
FY2021: $5.34  ↗
FY2022: $8.77  ↗ PEAK
FY2023: $8.26  ↘ (slight)
FY2024: $6.32  ↘ (normalization)
FY2025E: $5.50–6.00 (consensus range)

Segment P&L Breakdown (FY2024)

North America Steel
Metric Value
Revenue ~$5.1B
Adjusted EBITDA ~$960M
EBITDA Margin ~18.8%
Tons Shipped ~5.2M
Revenue per Ton ~$980
EBITDA per Ton ~$184
Europe Steel
Metric Value
Revenue ~$1.7B
Adjusted EBITDA ~$195M
EBITDA Margin ~11.5%
Tons Shipped ~2.3M
Revenue per Ton ~$739
EBITDA per Ton ~$85

Key Financial Ratios

Ratio FY2024 Value Notes
P/E (LTM) ~7–8x Cyclical steel multiple
EV/EBITDA (LTM) ~5–6x Mid-cycle normalization
P/Book ~1.7x Premium to book for quality operator
Debt/Equity ~0.52x Conservative leverage
Current Ratio ~2.5x Strong liquidity
Interest Coverage ~13x Well-covered

Financial Quality Assessment

Earnings Quality: High

  • Cash flow conversion improving as CapEx normalizes post Arizona 2 completion
  • No material off-balance sheet obligations
  • Conservative revenue recognition (delivery-based)
  • No significant pension obligations (defined contribution plan)

Balance Sheet Quality: High

  • Investment-grade credit rating (BBB- / Baa3)
  • Net debt/EBITDA well below 1x — substantial debt capacity
  • Revolving credit facility (~$600M) largely undrawn
  • Manageable debt maturity schedule

Earnings Cyclicality Risk: Significant but Managed

  • CMC's earnings have ~4–5x range between trough and peak EPS through the cycle
  • The company maintained profitability through the 2015–2016 steel trough and COVID downturn
  • Structural improvements (Arizona 2, downstream integration) have raised the trough floor

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $CMC.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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