Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc.
CMGFinancial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$2.9B
Q1 FY2026
TTM ROIC
36.9%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (EBIT × (1 - tax rate) / (PP&E + ROU assets - lease liabilities - excess cash + net working capital)) · WACC ~10.9% · Moat spread +26pp
Financial Snapshot
ticker: CMG step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) — Financial Snapshot
(Note: CMG executed a 50-for-1 stock split in June 2024; per-share metrics post-split adjusted.)
Income Statement Summary
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY (FY25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $9.87B | $11.31B | $11.93B | +5.4% |
| Comparable Sales | +7.9% | +7.4% | +slightly negative (transaction-led) | decelerating |
| Restaurant-Level Operating Margin | 26.2% | 26.6% | ~24-25% | compressing |
| Operating Margin (consolidated) | 16.5% | 17.0% | ~16% | compressing |
| Net Income | $1.23B | $1.53B | ~$1.6B | flat-to-slightly-up |
| Diluted EPS (post-split adj) | ~$0.91 | ~$1.10 | ~$1.18 | +7% |
Q1 2026 Results
| Metric | Q1 2026 |
|---|---|
| Revenue | +7.4% YoY |
| Traffic Growth | +0.6% |
| Average Transaction | -0.1% |
| Comparable Sales | small positive |
| EPS | -18% YoY (margin compression) |
FY2026 Guidance (Maintained)
| Metric | 2026 Guide |
|---|---|
| Comparable Sales | Flat (~conservative) |
| New Restaurant Openings | 350–370 (incl. 10–15 international licensed) |
| Operating Margin | Pressured by labor + commodity costs |
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation (FY2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | ~$2.0–2.2B |
| Capital Expenditures | ~$0.6B (new restaurant openings) |
| Free Cash Flow | ~$1.4–1.6B |
| Share Repurchases | ~$0.8–1.0B (variable) |
| Dividend | NONE (buyback-only return) |
| Cash & Marketable Securities | ~$3.0B (post-buybacks) |
| Total Debt | ~$0 (essentially debt-free) |
Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~33x (FY26E EPS midpoint $1.30) | EV/EBITDA: ~20x | FCF Yield: ~2.5%
- Revenue Growth (FY25): +5.4%; FY26: low-mid single digit
- Restaurant-Level Operating Margin: ~24-25% (compressed from ~27% peak)
- Operating Margin: ~16-17% (consolidated)
- ROIC: ~35%+ (very high; capital-efficient company-owned model)
- Net Debt: Net cash ~$3B
- Dividend: NONE (buyback-only return; ~1.5% buyback yield)
Growth Profile
FY25 was a decelerating year for Chipotle:
- Revenue +5.4% to $11.93B (vs. +14.6% in FY24)
- Comparable sales decelerated to slightly negative (transaction-led decline)
- Restaurant-level margin compressed from 26.6% to ~24-25%
- New CEO Boatwright navigating transition + operational reset
- Stock down ~34% from 2024 peak
Q1 2026 inflection signs:
- Traffic +0.6% (first positive in several quarters)
- Maintained flat 2026 comp sales outlook (conservative)
- 350-370 new restaurant openings target
- Margin compression continuing on labor + commodity pressure
The structural concerns:
- Competitive intensity from Cava + Sweetgreen + restaurant industry
- Premium pricing tested against consumer wage stagnation
- Multi-year operational reset under new leadership
Forward Estimates
FY2026 Consensus:
- Revenue: ~$12.7–13.0B (+6–9%)
- Comparable Sales: Flat to slightly positive
- Adjusted EPS: ~$1.25–1.35 (+6–14% YoY off depressed FY25)
- Restaurant-Level Operating Margin: ~24–25%
Bull case: Boatwright restores comp sales to +3-5% by H2 2026; new restaurant openings accelerate to 400+/yr; restaurant-level margins recover to 26%+; multiple expands to 40x P/E; stock could reach $80. Bear case: Cava + Sweetgreen continue taking share; traffic stays flat; margin compression continues; multiple compresses to 25x P/E; stock stays at $40-45. Consensus targets ~$55–65 vs. trading ~$42–48 (~10–35% implied upside).
Deeper Financial Analysis
The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $CMG.
Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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