# Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) — Financial Analysis

**Exchange:** NYSE  
**Coverage as of:** 2026-Q2  
**Updated:** 2026-05-12  
**Tier:** Free primer (step 2 of 19)  
**Sibling pages:** /stocks/COF/thesis · /stocks/COF/memo

## Financial Snapshot

---
ticker: COF
step: 04
generated: 2026-05-12
source: quick-research
---

### Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) — Financial Snapshot

#### Income Statement Summary

| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY (FY25) |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|------------|
| Net Revenue | $36.8B | $39.1B | ~$48B+ | +23% (Discover full-year contribution) |
| Net Interest Income | $29.6B | $30.7B | ~$37B | strong |
| Non-Interest Income | $7.2B | $8.4B | ~$11B | +Discover network fees |
| Net Interest Margin | 6.71% | 6.91% | ~7.50% | +Discover impact |
| Provision for Credit Losses | $10.4B | $11.5B | ~$12B | rising (cycle pressure) |
| Net Charge-off Rate | ~2.5% | ~3.0% | ~3.2% | rising |
| GAAP Net Income | $4.9B | $4.8B | ~$8.5B+ | Discover boost |
| Diluted EPS | $11.95 | $11.59 | ~$16+ | recovery + Discover |

#### Q1 2026 Results

| Metric | Q1 2026 |
|--------|---------|
| Net Interest Margin | 7.87% (-39 bps sequential) |
| Consumer Auto Delinquency Rate | 4.21% (-102 bps sequential, -72 bps YoY) |
| Charge-off rate | seasonal in-line |
| EPS | missed consensus |

#### FY2026 Consensus Guidance

| Metric | 2026 Outlook |
|--------|-------------|
| Full Year EPS | ~$19.28 (analyst consensus) |
| Q2 2026 EPS | $4.86 |
| Q3 2026 EPS | $5.61 (analyst estimate updated to $5.24) |
| Q4 2026 EPS | $4.53 |
| Discover Synergy Target | $2.5B run-rate by H1 2027 |

#### Cash Flow & Capital Allocation (FY2025)

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Loans Held for Investment (HFI) | ~$400B+ (post-Discover) |
| Total Deposits | $675B (post-Discover) |
| CET1 Capital Ratio | ~13.0% |
| Tier 1 Leverage Ratio | ~9.5% |
| Dividend (Quarterly) | $0.60 |
| Annual Dividend Per Share | $2.40 |
| Dividend Yield | ~1.0% |
| Quarterly Share Repurchases | Variable; pre-Discover deal Capital One had aggressive buyback |
| Tangible Common Equity | ~$70B+ (post-Discover) |

#### Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~12x (FY26E EPS ~$19.28) | Price/TBV: ~2.0x | ROTCE: ~14%
- Revenue Growth (FY25): +23% (Discover contribution)
- Net Interest Margin: 7.87% (Q1 26) — highest among large banks
- Charge-off rate: ~3.2% (cycle-elevated; normalizing)
- Dividend Yield: ~1.0% | Buyback yield: variable
- CET1 Ratio: ~13.0%

#### Growth Profile
FY25 was the **integration year for Discover**:
- Net Revenue +23% on Discover full-year contribution (combined from May 18, 2025)
- Net Interest Margin elevated by Discover's high-yield card portfolio
- Discover acquisition closed May 18, 2025; integration ongoing through H1 2027
- $2.5B synergy target (cost + revenue) by H1 2027

Q1 2026 setup:
- EPS missed consensus (integration costs + Brex/Hopper + NIM compression)
- Consumer credit delinquencies improving (auto -102 bps sequential)
- NIM declined 39 bps sequentially; ~half mechanical (day count) + half rate-environment
- Stock down 23% YTD 2026 reflecting near-term execution concerns

The defining 2026–27 narrative:
1. **Discover Network monetization** — Capital One can capture both issuer + network economics on transactions routed through Discover (vs. Visa/MC interchange).
2. **Cost synergy realization** — Technology consolidation, branch closures, marketing efficiency, contract renegotiations.
3. **Credit cycle normalization** — Card + auto delinquencies starting to improve.

#### Forward Estimates
FY2026 Consensus:
- Revenue: ~$50B (~+4%)
- EPS: $19.28 (full-year consensus)
- NIM: 7.5–8.0% range
- Charge-off rate: 3.0–3.3%

Bull case: Discover synergies exceed $2.5B target; Discover Network monetization expands; credit losses peak in 2026; NIM stabilizes; multiple expands to 14x P/E; stock could reach $240+ vs. ~$200 currently. Bear case: Discover integration delays; Brex/Hopper acquisitions don't pay off; credit cycle worsens; NIM compresses faster than expected; multiple stays at 10x; stock stays $170-190. Consensus targets ~$235–260 vs. trading ~$200–215 (~15–25% implied upside).

## Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier ($1.00) adds 8 dimensions not included here:

- Revenue Breakdown — segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line margins
- Financial Trends — QoQ momentum, leading indicators, inflection points
- Balance Sheet — debt structure, dilution risk, working capital dynamics
- Capital Allocation — ROIC, buyback cadence, reinvestment efficiency
- Earnings Analysis — beats/misses, guidance vs actuals, transcript highlights
- Competitive Positioning — market share, pricing power, peer benchmarks
- Industry Context — TAM, sector tailwinds/headwinds, regulatory backdrop

**API endpoint:** GET /api/v1/research/COF/fundamental

## Navigation

- Overview: /stocks/COF
- Financials (this page): /stocks/COF/financials
- Thesis: /stocks/COF/thesis
- Investment Memo: /stocks/COF/memo
- Coverage universe: /stocks