# ConocoPhillips (COP) — Financial Analysis

**Exchange:** NYSE  
**Coverage as of:** 2026-Q2  
**Updated:** 2026-05-12  
**Tier:** Free primer (step 2 of 19)  
**Sibling pages:** /stocks/COP/thesis · /stocks/COP/memo

## Financial Snapshot

---
ticker: COP
step: 04
generated: 2026-05-12
source: quick-research
---

### ConocoPhillips (COP) — Financial Snapshot

#### Income Statement Summary

| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY (FY25) |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|------------|
| Revenue | $57.7B | $56.9B | $61.5B | +8% |
| Operating Income | ~$16B | ~$15B | ~$13B | -13% |
| Net Income | $10.96B | $9.24B | $8.04B | -13% (oil price + Marathon integration) |
| Diluted EPS | $9.06 | $8.05 | $6.35 | -21% |

#### Production & Cost Metrics

| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | 2026 Guide |
|--------|--------|--------|-----------|
| Production (mboe/d) | 2,183 | ~2,360 (incl. Marathon full year) | 2,330–2,360 |
| Permian (mboe/d) | 833 | ~900+ | growing |
| Eagle Ford (mboe/d) | 296 | ~370 (Marathon contribution) | growing |
| Bakken (mboe/d) | 151 | ~220 | growing |
| Cost of Supply | <$30/bbl WTI | <$30/bbl | declining |
| FCF Breakeven WTI | ~$40/bbl | mid-$30s | low $30s by 2030 |

#### Cash Flow & Capital Allocation (FY2025)

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Operating Cash Flow | $19.8B |
| Capital Expenditures | ~$12.4B |
| Free Cash Flow | ~$7.4B |
| Capital Return Target | 45% of CFO |
| Capital Returned in FY25 (dividends + buybacks + VROC) | ~$9–10B |
| Annual Dividend Per Share | $3.18 |
| Q4 2025 Dividend Hike | +8% |
| Dividend Yield | ~3.5% |
| Total Debt | ~$26B (post-Marathon) |
| Net Debt / EBITDA | ~1.1x |

#### FY2026 Guidance

| Metric | 2026 Guide |
|--------|-----------|
| Production | 2.33–2.36 mboe/d (~2.31 ex-Qatar adjustment) |
| Capex | $12–12.5B |
| Capital Return | 45% of CFO |
| Synergy Target (Marathon) | $1B+ run-rate within 12 months |
| Long-Term FCF Breakeven Target | Low $30s WTI by 2030 |

#### Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~16x (FY25 GAAP) | EV/EBITDA: ~5x | FCF Yield: ~5.5%
- Revenue Growth (FY25): +8% (Marathon contribution + flat oil)
- Net Income Margin: 13.6%
- Dividend Yield: ~3.5% | Capital Return Yield: ~7.5% combined
- Net Debt / EBITDA: ~1.1x

#### Growth Profile
FY25 was the **integration year** for Marathon Oil:
- Revenue +8% to $61.5B on Marathon full-year contribution
- Net Income -13% to $8.0B on lower oil prices (Brent averaged $78/bbl) + integration costs
- Operating Cash Flow $19.8B robust
- Synergy capture on track for $1B+ run-rate within 12 months

The 2026 setup:
- Production growth +6–8% with Marathon assets fully integrated
- Capex $12–12.5B mostly maintenance + Permian growth + Willow ramp
- 45% of CFO return commitment
- Continued FCF breakeven decline toward low $30s

Long-term thesis: ConocoPhillips is positioned to capture maximum value from secular oil/gas demand decline by being the **lowest-cost barrels producer with the longest inventory + highest capital return discipline**. As higher-cost producers exit, COP's low cost-of-supply increases share of marginal oil supply.

#### Forward Estimates
FY2026 Consensus:
- Revenue: ~$67–72B (+9–17% — depending on Brent)
- EPS: ~$7.00–9.00 (depending on $70–85 Brent)
- FCF: ~$10–14B (Brent-sensitive)

Bull case: Brent holds $75–80; Marathon synergies exceed $1B target; Willow ramps on schedule; multiple expands as cost-of-supply leadership recognized; reaches ~$130–140/share. Bear case: Brent retreats to $55–65; production grew but realized prices compress; capital return throttle; ~$80/share. Consensus targets ~$120–135 vs. trading ~$95–105 (~15–35% implied upside).

## Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier ($1.00) adds 8 dimensions not included here:

- Revenue Breakdown — segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line margins
- Financial Trends — QoQ momentum, leading indicators, inflection points
- Balance Sheet — debt structure, dilution risk, working capital dynamics
- Capital Allocation — ROIC, buyback cadence, reinvestment efficiency
- Earnings Analysis — beats/misses, guidance vs actuals, transcript highlights
- Competitive Positioning — market share, pricing power, peer benchmarks
- Industry Context — TAM, sector tailwinds/headwinds, regulatory backdrop

**API endpoint:** GET /api/v1/research/COP/fundamental

## Navigation

- Overview: /stocks/COP
- Financials (this page): /stocks/COP/financials
- Thesis: /stocks/COP/thesis
- Investment Memo: /stocks/COP/memo
- Coverage universe: /stocks