Costco Wholesale Corporation

COST
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$68.2B
Q2 FY2026 · +9% YoY
TTM ROIC
28.5%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (NOPAT = Operating income × (1-tax rate); Invested Capital = equity + debt - cash) · WACC ~8.3% · Moat spread +20.5pp
DCF Fair Value
$690
Base case · WACC 8.3% · Terminal 3.5% · -32% vs. current price
Margin Profile
Gross 11.4%
Operating 3.7%
FCF 2.8%
FY2025
Net Cash
$13.0B
Cash $18.0B · Debt $5.0B · FY2025
Diluted Shares
443M
FY2026E

Business Overview


ticker: COST step: 01 generated: 2026-05-11 source: quick-research

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) — Business Overview

Business Description

Costco is the world's third-largest retailer and operates a membership-only warehouse club business model. It sells limited-SKU bulk merchandise at very thin markups (capped at 14% on regular items, 15% on Kirkland Signature private label) and generates the bulk of profits from $65–130 annual membership fees. The "membership flywheel" — low prices drive membership growth → larger membership base enables tighter supplier negotiation → fund further price reductions — has built one of the strongest competitive moats in retail.

Revenue Model

  • Merchandise sales (~97% of revenue): Limited SKU, bulk-format groceries, electronics, apparel, gas, pharmacy, optical, hearing aids, tires, business products
  • Membership fees (~2% of revenue but ~70% of operating profit): ~$5.3B annual; $65 Gold Star + $130 Executive (raised 2024 from $120 — first hike in 7 years)
  • Ancillary services: Costco gas stations, pharmacies, travel, optical, hearing aids, business services (gold-margin captives that reinforce loyalty)

Products & Services

  • Merchandise: ~4,000 limited SKU mix vs. 50,000+ at competing big-box retailers
  • Kirkland Signature private label: $90B+ in 2025 sales (~33% of merchandise) — strongest private label in retail
  • Costco-branded services: Pharmacy, optical, hearing aid centers, gas stations, food courts ($1.50 hot dog), travel
  • Digital: Costco.com, Costco Next (curated marketplace), Same-day delivery via Instacart
  • Specialty businesses: Business Centers (B2B-only locations)

Customer Base & Go-to-Market

  • Members: 81.4M paid members / 145.9M cardholders as of Q2 FY26 (~5% YoY growth)
  • Membership renewal: 92.3% US/Canada, 89.7% worldwide
  • Customer profile: Higher-income household focus — average member income ~$120K
  • Executive members drive ~75.8% of sales (~50% of membership base)
  • Geographic split: ~85% North American (US, Canada, Mexico)

Competitive Position

Costco's moats are exceptional and well-understood: (1) lowest-priced retailer in most SKUs due to membership-fee-subsidized markup model, (2) ~$90B Kirkland Signature private label provides supplier negotiating leverage, (3) limited SKU treasure-hunt model creates inventory turn 3-4x faster than peers, (4) member loyalty (92% renewal) is structural, and (5) high-income demographic insulates from recession. Faces Amazon Prime in e-commerce (Costco's $20B+ online is small but growing 2x in-store comp). Walmart Sam's Club and BJ's Wholesale are direct format competitors but at smaller scale.

Key Facts

  • Founded: 1976 (as Price Club); merged into Costco 1993
  • Headquarters: Issaquah, WA
  • Employees: ~333,000
  • Exchange: NASDAQ
  • Sector / Industry: Consumer Staples / Hypermarkets & Super Centers
  • Market Cap: ~$425B (May 2026)
  • CEO: Ron Vachris (succeeded Craig Jelinek Jan 2024)
  • Founder Chairman Emeritus: Jim Sinegal (still influential)
  • Warehouses: 924 globally (target 942 by FYE 2026; +28-35 net new)
  • FY end: Sunday closest to Aug 31

Financial Snapshot


ticker: COST step: 04 generated: 2026-05-11 source: quick-research

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) — Financial Snapshot

Note: Costco's fiscal year ends in late August. "FY2025" = fiscal year ended Aug 31, 2025.

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY
Revenue $242.3B $254.5B $275.2B +8.2%
Comparable Sales (ex-gas/FX) +5.0% +5.2% +7.0%
Gross Margin (ex-gas) 11.0% 11.2% 11.4% +0.2pp
Operating Margin 3.4% 3.5% 3.7% +0.2pp
Net Income $6.29B $7.37B $8.10B +10%
EPS (diluted) $14.16 $16.56 $18.20 +10%
Membership Fee Income $4.58B $4.83B $5.30B +10%

Q2 FY2026 Highlights (most recent reported)

Metric Q2 FY26 YoY Change
Total Revenue $69.6B +9%
Comparable Sales (ex-gas/FX) +7.4% accelerating
Digital Comp Sales +22.6%
Net Income $2.04B +14%
EPS (diluted) $4.58 +14%
Membership Fees $1.36B +13.6%
Renewal Rate (US/Canada) 92.3% -50bps vs. peak
Paid Memberships 82.1M +5%

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$12B
Capital Expenditures ~($4.5B) (warehouses + IT)
Free Cash Flow ~$7.5B
Cash & Equivalents ~$14B
Short-term Investments ~$4B
Total Debt ~$5B (very low for retailer of this scale)

Key Ratios (approximate, May 2026)

  • P/E (forward): ~46x | EV/EBITDA: ~28x | Dividend Yield: ~0.55%
  • Special dividends: COST has paid 5 special dividends totaling $40+/share historically
  • ROIC: ~28% (best-in-class in retail)
  • Inventory Turns: ~12x (vs. ~7x for Walmart, ~5x for Target)

Growth Profile

Costco is in the rare combo of mature scale + accelerating comparable sales. Q2 FY26 comp of 7.4% (digital +22.6%) reflects executive memberships (75.8% of sales), Kirkland Signature share gains, and tariff-resistant supply chain. The 2024 membership fee hike to $130 Executive / $65 Gold Star drove ~33% of membership growth in subsequent quarters with only 0.1% renewal decline — a textbook demonstration of pricing power.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026E Revenue: ~$297B (+8%)
  • FY2026E EPS: ~$20.00 (+10%)
  • FY2027E Revenue: ~$320B (+8%)
  • FY2027E EPS: ~$22.50 (+12%)
  • Warehouse count FY2026 target: 942 (+28-35 net)

Capital Return

  • Regular dividend ~$5.20/share annual ($2.3B), grown 17+ consecutive years
  • Periodic special dividends ($15/share most recently in Jan 2024)
  • Minimal buybacks (~$1-2B annually) — capital allocated mainly to warehouse buildouts

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $COST.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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