# Shift4 Payments (FOUR)

**Exchange:** NYSE  
**Coverage as of:** 2026-Q2  
**Updated:** 2026-05-10  
**Report type:** Primer (steps 1–3 of 19)  
**API endpoint:** GET /api/v1/research/FOUR/primer

## Financial Snapshot

# STEP 8: REVENUE BREAKDOWN & GROWTH DRIVERS — SHIFT4 PAYMENTS (FOUR)
### Date: February 26, 2026

---

## A. REVENUE BREAKDOWN BY TYPE

### Payments-Based vs. Subscription Revenue
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | YoY Growth (FY24) |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|-------------------|
| **Payments-based revenue** | $2,990.1M | $2,386.0M | $1,857.1M | +25.3% |
| **Subscription & other revenue** | $340.5M | $178.8M | $136.5M | +90.4% |
| **Total Gross Revenue** | $3,330.6M | $2,564.8M | $1,993.6M | +29.9% |

### Revenue Mix Shift
| Component | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | Trend |
|-----------|--------|--------|--------|-------|
| **Payments-based** | 93.2% | 93.0% | 89.8% | Declining share |
| **Subscription & other** | 6.8% | 7.0% | 10.2% | **Growing share** |

**Key Trend:** Subscription revenue nearly doubled in FY2024 (+90.4%), driven by SkyTab POS software subscriptions, Revel's cloud POS recurring revenue, and other SaaS products. This mix shift is highly favorable — subscription revenue carries higher margins and is more predictable.

### Gross Revenue Less Network Fees (GRLNF) — Management's Preferred Metric
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2023 | FY2022 | YoY Growth (FY24) |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|-------------------|
| **Gross Revenue** | $3,330.6M | $2,564.8M | $1,993.6M | +29.9% |
| **Less: Network fees** | ($1,976.2M) | ($1,624.4M) | N/A | +21.7% |
| **GRLNF** | $1,354.4M | $940.4M | N/A | **+44.0%** |

**GRLNF grew 44% vs gross revenue growth of 30%** because Shift4 captured more value per transaction (higher take rate on the spread between gross revenue and interchange/network fees).

---

## B. REVENUE BREAKDOWN BY VERTICAL/END MARKET

### Estimated Vertical Mix (FY2024)
| Vertical | Revenue Contribution (est.) | Key Metrics |
|---------|---------------------------|-------------|
| **Restaurants (Table-Service)** | ~30-35% | ~33% of US table-service restaurants use Shift4; SkyTab is dominant |
| **Hotels/Hospitality** | ~25-30% | ~40% of US hotel payment volume; integrated property management |
| **Sports & Entertainment** | ~10-12% | 50%+ of major league venues; SpotOn partnership in stadiums |
| **Gaming/Casinos** | ~8-10% | Legacy gateway strength; integrated with casino management systems |
| **Specialty Retail/E-Commerce** | ~8-10% | Growing via Finaro (cross-border) and gateway conversions |
| **Other (Food & Beverage, QSR, etc.)** | ~10-15% | Fast-growing via SkyTab Express and partnership channels |

*Note: Shift4 does not formally disclose revenue by vertical. These estimates are derived from management commentary, investor presentations, and volume disclosures.*

### Vertical Growth Dynamics
| Vertical | Growth Rate (est.) | Key Driver | Risk Level |
|---------|-------------------|-----------|------------|
| Restaurants | 15-20% organic | SkyTab adoption, gateway conversion | Low — dominant position |
| Hotels | 20-25% | Property management integration, chain expansion | Low-Medium |
| Sports & Entertainment | 25-30% | New venue wins, concession digitization | Low |
| Gaming | 5-10% | Mature; steady gateway revenue | Low |
| E-Commerce/International | 40-50% | Finaro, Global Blue, cross-border | Medium — newer market |
| Other/New Verticals | 30-40% | SkyTab Express (QSR), Revel (multi-location) | Medium |

---

## C. REVENUE BREAKDOWN BY GEOGRAPHY

### Pre-Global Blue (FY2024)
| Geography | Revenue (est.) | % of Total |
|-----------|---------------|------------|
| **United States** | ~$3,050M | ~92% |
| **Europe** | ~$180M | ~5% |
| **Rest of World** | ~$100M | ~3% |
| **Total** | $3,330.6M | 100% |

### Post-Global Blue (LTM Sep 2025, est.)
| Geography | Revenue (est.) | % of Total |
|-----------|---------------|------------|
| **United States** | ~$3,200M | ~82% |
| **Europe** | ~$550M | ~14% |
| **Rest of World** | ~$130M | ~3% |
| **Total** | ~$3,878M | 100% |

**Global Blue transforms Shift4's geographic profile.** International revenue jumps from ~8% to ~18% of total, with further expansion expected as Shift4 cross-sells payment processing to Global Blue's merchant network across Europe and Asia.

### Target Geographic Expansion
| Region | Status | Revenue Opportunity |
|--------|--------|-------------------|
| **North America** | Core market; dominant in hospitality | Organic growth 15-20% |
| **Western Europe** | Expanding via Vectron (Germany), Global Blue | High — €500B+ card payment market |
| **Eastern Europe** | Finaro provides gateway; early stage | Medium-term opportunity |
| **Asia-Pacific** | Global Blue has presence (Japan, Korea, Singapore) | Long-term; high-growth |
| **Latin America** | No meaningful presence | Not yet targeted |

---

## D. GROWTH DRIVERS BY SEGMENT

### 1. SkyTab POS (Restaurants — Primary Growth Engine)
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025E |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|---------|
| **SkyTab Installs (cumulative)** | ~15,000 | ~25,000 | ~35,000+ | ~50,000+ |
| **SkyTab Contribution to Revenue** | ~$200M | ~$350M | ~$550M (est.) | ~$800M+ (est.) |

- Free hardware placement model: Shift4 provides POS hardware at no upfront cost
- Revenue model: Payment processing spread + monthly SaaS subscription ($30-100/month)
- Lifetime value per install: ~$30-50K over 5-year merchant relationship
- Customer acquisition cost: ~$2-4K per install (hardware + installation)
- **Payback period: ~6-12 months**
- This is Shift4's most important competitive advantage and growth driver

### 2. Gateway Conversion (Legacy Merchants)
- Shift4 has ~200,000+ gateway-only merchants processing through third-party acquirers
- Converting these to end-to-end processing on Shift4's platform increases take rate by 3-5x
- **Conversion rate: ~5-8% of gateway merchants per year**
- This is a multi-year "hidden" revenue driver with minimal customer acquisition cost
- Estimated annual revenue uplift from conversions: $150-250M

### 3. Acquisition Integration (Revenue Synergies)
| Acquisition | Revenue at Acquisition | Revenue Synergy (est.) | Timeline |
|-------------|----------------------|----------------------|----------|
| **Global Blue** | ~$500-600M | +$100-200M (cross-sell) | FY2026-2028 |
| **Revel** | ~$60-80M | +$30-50M (integrated payments) | FY2025-2026 |
| **Bambora NA** | ~$200-300M | +$50-100M (gateway conversion) | FY2026-2027 |
| **Vectron** | ~$30-40M | +$20-30M (payment processing upsell) | FY2025-2027 |

### 4. End-to-End Payment Volume Growth
| Year | E2E Volume (est.) | YoY Growth |
|------|-------------------|------------|
| FY2022 | ~$100B | ~+40% |
| FY2023 | ~$109B | ~+9% |
| FY2024 | ~$165B | ~+51% |
| FY2025E | ~$210B | ~+27% |

Volume growth consistently outpaces revenue growth because larger merchants have lower per-transaction pricing (take rate compression). However, absolute dollar contribution per merchant is higher.

---

## E. CAGR ANALYSIS

### Revenue CAGRs
| Period | Total Revenue CAGR | Organic CAGR (est.) |
|--------|-------------------|---------------------|
| **FY2018-FY2024 (6 years)** | **34.5%** | ~20-22% |
| **FY2020-FY2024 (4 years)** | **44.3%** | ~25-28% |
| **FY2022-FY2024 (2 years)** | **29.3%** | ~22-25% |
| **Consensus FY2024-FY2026E** | **~26.5%** | ~18-20% |

### Segment-Level Growth (FY2022-FY2024)
| Segment | 2-Year CAGR | Driver |
|---------|-------------|--------|
| **Payments-based revenue** | 26.9% | Volume growth + new merchants |
| **Subscription & other** | 57.9% | SkyTab SaaS, Revel, acquisitions |
| **GRLNF** | ~44% (1yr only) | Mix shift + take rate |

### 5-Year Forward CAGR Scenarios (FY2024-FY2029)
| Scenario | Revenue CAGR | FY2029 Revenue | Drivers |
|----------|-------------|---------------|---------|
| **Conservative** | 13% | $6,200M | Organic only, no new M&A |
| **Base** | 20% | $8,300M | Organic + existing acquisition integration |
| **Growth** | 25% | $10,000M+ | Full Global Blue synergies + Bambora + further M&A |

---

## F. KEY RISKS BY REVENUE SEGMENT

| Segment | Risk | Severity | Mitigation |
|---------|------|----------|-----------|
| **Restaurants** | Market saturation (SkyTab penetration reaching ceiling) | Medium | Expanding to QSR, fast-casual, multi-location |
| **Hotels** | Recession sensitivity; travel slowdown | Medium | Long-term contracts; sticky integrations |
| **Sports/Entertainment** | Seasonal; venue consolidation | Low | Multi-year exclusive contracts |
| **International** | FX risk; regulatory complexity; integration | High | Diversification benefit; local teams via acquisitions |
| **E-Commerce** | Intense competition (Stripe, Adyen, Checkout.com) | High | Finaro provides gateway; not core focus |
| **Subscription** | Churn risk if SkyTab quality lags | Low-Medium | High switching costs; free hardware lock-in |

---

*Step 8 complete. Proceeding to Step 9.*

## Recent Catalysts

# STEP 15: NEWS IMPACT AND ADJUSTMENTS — SHIFT4 PAYMENTS (FOUR)
### Date: February 26, 2026

---

## A. Q4 2025 / FY2025 EARNINGS (Released Today, Feb 26, 2026)

### Q4 2025 Results
| Metric | Actual | YoY Growth | vs. Consensus |
|--------|--------|------------|---------------|
| **Gross Revenue** | $1.19B | +34% | **In-line** |
| **E2E Volume** | $59B | +23% | Slight beat ($58.1B est.) |
| **Adjusted EPS** | $1.60 | +19% | **Beat by 5.3%** ($1.52 est.) |

### FY2025 Full-Year Results
| Metric | FY2025 | FY2024 | YoY Growth |
|--------|--------|--------|------------|
| **Gross Revenue** | ~$4.20B | $3.33B | +26% |
| **E2E Volume** | ~$207-210B | ~$165B | +26-27% |
| **GRLNF** | ~$1.98-2.02B | $1.35B | +46-49% |
| **Adjusted EBITDA** | ~$970-985M | ~$692M | +40-42% |
| **Adjusted EPS** | ~$5.32 | $3.03 | +76% |

### FY2026 Guidance (THE DISAPPOINTMENT)
| Metric | FY2026 Guidance | Consensus | **Gap** |
|--------|----------------|-----------|---------|
| **Adjusted EPS** | ~$5.60 midpoint | $6.45 | **-13.2% miss** |
| **E2E Volume** | ~$240B | $255B | **-5.9% light** |
| **Q1 2026 Revenue** | ~$547.5M | $1.13B | **-51.6%** (methodology change?) |

### Stock Reaction
- **Pre-earnings:** $58.31 (Feb 24 close)
- **Post-earnings:** $56.40 (down 1.7% intraday) → pre-market Feb 26 saw $52.85 (-7.9%)
- **Current trading range:** ~$52-57

---

## B. KEY NEWS DEVELOPMENTS (Last 6 Months)

### 1. Global Blue Acquisition Completed (July 2025)
- **Enterprise value:** ~$2.5B
- **Financed by:** $1.9B in new debt + cash
- **Impact:** Adds ~$500-600M annual revenue; European tax-free shopping and DCC
- **Integration status:** On track; Q3 2025 was first full quarter of consolidation
- **Model adjustment:** Already incorporated in LTM revenue ($3,878M) and Step 1 debt figures ($4,771M)

### 2. CEO Transition — Isaacman to Lauber (December 2025)
- Jared Isaacman confirmed as NASA Administrator
- Taylor Lauber (former President/COO) appointed CEO and Chairman
- Isaacman retains ~2.33% economic interest (post-dual-class collapse)
- **Previously owned ~25.9%** through Class B/C shares
- **Model adjustment:** Increased execution risk premium; captured in WACC beta

### 3. Dual-Class Share Collapse (February 2026)
- All Class B and C shares converted to Class A
- Super-voting rights eliminated
- Company no longer a "controlled company"
- TRA liability of ~$440M eliminated
- **Model adjustment:** Positive for governance; reduces equity risk premium

### 4. Bambora North America Acquisition (Pending, Q1 2026 Expected)
- Acquiring Bambora's North American business from Worldline
- Terms not disclosed; estimated ~$200-300M
- Adds Canadian payment processing scale
- **Model adjustment:** Not yet in model; will add revenue when completed

### 5. $1B Share Buyback Program (Active)
- Authorized Q3 2025; replacing prior $500M program
- ~$296M executed TTM through Sep 2025
- At current prices (~$56), each $100M buyback retires ~1.8M shares (2% of diluted)
- **Model adjustment:** Supports per-share value; particularly accretive at current depressed prices

### 6. Michael Burry's Bearish Thesis (Published 2025)
- Published 8,000-word bearish analysis arguing payments companies show "minimal organic growth"
- Said he'd consider FOUR at $30/share
- Status of his position unclear (held as #2 pick entering 2025)
- **Model adjustment:** Adds to bearish narrative pressure; contributes to short interest

---

## C. ADJUSTMENTS TO MODEL AND NARRATIVE

### Revenue Adjustments (Based on FY2025 Actuals + FY2026 Guidance)
| Metric | Previous (Step 1) | Updated | Change |
|--------|------------------|---------|--------|
| **FY2025 Revenue** | $4,290M (consensus) | ~$4,200M (actual) | **-$90M (-2.1%)** |
| **FY2026 Revenue** | $5,330M | ~$4,800-5,000M (guidance implies lower growth) | **-$330 to -$530M** |
| **FY2025 Adj. EBITDA** | $858M (20% margin) | ~$975M (23.2% margin) | **+$117M (+13.6%)** |
| **FY2026 Adj. EPS** | $6.62 (consensus) | ~$5.60 (guidance midpoint) | **-$1.02 (-15.4%)** |

### Key Takeaways for Model

1. **FY2025 EBITDA came in ABOVE model** — $975M vs $858M. Margins are expanding faster than projected (23.2% vs 20.0% assumed). This is a significant positive surprise.

2. **FY2026 growth is decelerating more than expected.** Volume guidance of ~$240B implies +15% growth (vs +26-27% in FY2025). This could reflect:
   - Organic deceleration as the base grows
   - Conservative sandbagging (historical pattern: initial guidance 15-22% below actual)
   - Or genuine slowing if acquisition integration is harder

3. **The "organic vs inorganic" debate intensifies.** Organic GRLNF growth has decelerated from ~52% (FY2021) to ~18% (FY2025). If organic growth falls to ~12-15% in FY2026, the bull thesis relies more heavily on acquisition synergies.

4. **The $1B FCF target by end of 2027 was reaffirmed.** This is a key confidence signal — management believes the business can generate $1B+ annual free cash flow within 2 years.

### Updated Scenario Probabilities (Post-Earnings)
| Scenario | Pre-Earnings Prob. | Post-Earnings Prob. | Rationale |
|----------|-------------------|---------------------|-----------|
| **Extreme Bear** | 10% | 10% | Unchanged — macro risk still present |
| **Conservative** | 25% | 30% | **+5pp** — FY2026 guidance miss raises execution concern |
| **Base** | 45% | 40% | **-5pp** — Lower near-term growth reduces confidence |
| **Growth** | 20% | 20% | Unchanged — margins surprised positively |

---

## D. FINAL THESIS IMPACT

**Net Assessment: Modestly Negative Near-Term, Neutral Long-Term**

- The FY2025 results were strong (EBITDA beat, EPS beat)
- But FY2026 guidance was the first meaningful miss in Shift4's public history
- The guidance could be conservative (historical pattern suggests 15-20% upside to initial guidance)
- However, the break from the "beat-and-raise" pattern is concerning
- Margin expansion (23.2% adj. EBITDA margin) partially offsets slower revenue growth
- The $1B FCF target by 2027 provides a valuation anchor

**Model Update Required:** Reduce FY2026 revenue assumption by ~$300M and increase EBITDA margins by ~2-3pp. Net effect on intrinsic value is roughly neutral (lower revenue offset by higher margins).

---

*Step 15 complete. Proceeding to Step 16.*

## Full Research Available

This primer covers steps 1–3 of 19. The full deep dive (moat analysis, DCF, bull/bear,
management quality, earnings transcript analysis) is available via:

- Investment memo: /memo/four
- Full research API: GET /api/v1/research/FOUR/memo
- Coverage universe: /stocks