# GFL Environmental Inc. (GFL) — Financial Analysis

**Exchange:** NYSE  
**Coverage as of:** 2026-Q2  
**Updated:** 2026-05-29  
**Tier:** Free primer (step 2 of 19)  
**Sibling pages:** /stocks/GFL/thesis · /stocks/GFL/memo

## Financial Snapshot

---
source: coverage-next-full
ticker: GFL
step: "04"
title: Financial Snapshot — 3-Year P&L Summary, Key Metrics
created: 2026-05-29
---

### Step 04: Financial Snapshot

All figures in Canadian Dollars (CAD) unless noted. IFRS accounting. FY ends December 31.

#### 3-Year P&L Summary

| Line Item | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024E |
|-----------|--------|--------|---------|
| **Revenue** | C$9,090M | C$9,483M | ~C$10,000M |
| YoY Growth | +20.2% | +4.3% | ~+5.4% |
| Cost of Revenue | (C$5,700M) | (C$5,900M) | ~(C$6,150M) |
| **Gross Profit** | C$3,390M | C$3,583M | ~C$3,850M |
| Gross Margin | 37.3% | 37.8% | ~38.5% |
| SG&A & Other OpEx | (C$1,500M) | (C$1,550M) | ~(C$1,600M) |
| D&A | (C$1,400M) | (C$1,450M) | ~(C$1,500M) |
| **EBIT (Operating Income)** | ~C$490M | ~C$583M | ~C$750M |
| EBIT Margin | 5.4% | 6.1% | ~7.5% |
| Interest Expense | (C$830M) | (C$890M) | ~(C$800M) |
| Other Income/(Expense) | (C$50M) | (C$30M) | ~(C$100M) |
| **Pre-Tax Income** | (C$390M) | (C$337M) | ~(C$150M) |
| Income Tax (Recovery) | ~C$90M | ~C$80M | ~C$30M |
| **Net Income (Loss)** | **(C$300M)** | **(C$257M)** | **~(C$120M)** |
| Diluted Shares (M) | ~425M | ~427M | ~430M |
| **Diluted EPS (Loss)** | **(C$0.71)** | **(C$0.60)** | **~(C$0.28)** |

*Note: GAAP net losses are expected at GFL due to significant D&A from the acquisition-heavy model and high interest expense. The primary performance metric used by management and the market is Adjusted EBITDA.*

#### Adjusted EBITDA (Primary Valuation Metric)

| | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024E |
|--|--------|--------|---------|
| Adjusted EBITDA | C$2,487M | C$2,596M | ~C$2,850M |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 27.4% | 27.4% | ~28.5% |
| YoY Growth | +16.0% | +4.4% | ~+9.8% |

**Adj. EBITDA adjustments typically include**:
- Stock-based compensation (~C$80-100M/year)
- M&A transaction costs (~C$30-50M in active years)
- Restructuring charges (~C$20-40M)
- Environmental remediation provisions
- IFRS 16 lease adjustments

#### Solid Waste Segment P&L (Most Relevant Post-Divestiture)

| | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024E |
|--|--------|--------|---------|
| SW Revenue | ~C$6,700M | ~C$7,100M | ~C$7,500M |
| SW Adj. EBITDA | ~C$1,975M | ~C$2,200M | ~C$2,400M |
| SW Adj. EBITDA Margin | ~29.5% | ~31.0% | ~32.0% |

Environmental Services Segment:
| | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024E |
|--|--------|--------|---------|
| ES Revenue | ~C$2,390M | ~C$2,383M | ~C$2,500M |
| ES Adj. EBITDA | ~C$512M | ~C$396M | ~C$450M |
| ES Adj. EBITDA Margin | ~21.4% | ~16.6% | ~18.0% |

*ES margins compressed in FY2023 due to operational challenges and environmental liability provisions.*

#### Free Cash Flow Analysis

| | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024E |
|--|--------|--------|---------|
| Adj. EBITDA | C$2,487M | C$2,596M | ~C$2,850M |
| Capex (maintenance + growth) | (C$1,200M) | (C$1,250M) | ~(C$1,300M) |
| Cash Interest | (C$800M) | (C$860M) | ~(C$770M) |
| Cash Taxes | (C$100M) | (C$90M) | ~(C$80M) |
| Working Capital Changes | (C$50M) | (C$30M) | ~(C$20M) |
| **Adjusted Free Cash Flow** | **~C$337M** | **~C$366M** | **~C$680M** |
| FCF per Share (diluted) | ~C$0.79 | ~C$0.86 | ~C$1.58 |

*FCF improves significantly in FY2024 as ES divestiture proceeds reduce debt and interest expense.*

#### Key Profitability Metrics

| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024E | WM (FY2023) | RSG (FY2023) |
|--------|--------|--------|---------|-------------|-------------|
| Gross Margin | 37.3% | 37.8% | ~38.5% | ~45% | ~43% |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | 27.4% | 27.4% | ~28.5% | ~34% | ~33% |
| EBIT Margin | 5.4% | 6.1% | ~7.5% | ~22% | ~20% |
| Net Margin | -3.3% | -2.7% | ~-1.2% | ~14% | ~13% |

The significant difference in net margin is primarily due to:
1. Higher D&A at GFL (more acquisitions → more goodwill/intangibles amortization under IFRS)
2. Much higher interest expense (5x leverage vs. 2-3x for peers)
3. GFL is still in its "scaling" phase; peers have normalized their cost structure over decades

#### Revenue Bridge FY2023 → FY2024

| Component | CAD Impact |
|-----------|-----------|
| Core Price (solid waste) | +C$420M |
| Core Volume (slight negative) | (C$70M) |
| Environmental Services growth | +C$120M |
| Acquisitions | +C$50M |
| FX | (C$50M) |
| **Total Revenue Change** | **+C$470M** |

#### Consensus Estimates (FY2025-2026, Post-Divestiture)

| | FY2025E | FY2026E |
|--|---------|---------|
| Revenue (SW only, post-divestiture) | ~C$7.8B | ~C$8.2B |
| Adj. EBITDA | ~C$2.5B | ~C$2.75B |
| Adj. EBITDA Margin | ~32% | ~33.5% |
| Adj. FCF/Share | ~C$2.50 | ~C$3.20 |

*Post-divestiture consensus assumes a smaller revenue base but materially improved margins, lower interest, and higher FCF conversion.*

#### Key Non-GAAP / Adjusted Metrics GFL Reports

1. **Adjusted EBITDA**: Primary operating metric; addbacks per above
2. **Adjusted Net Income**: Strips amortization of acquisition-related intangibles; converts GFL to a "profitability" story
3. **Adjusted EPS**: Typically C$0.60-0.90/share vs. GAAP loss — used for peer comparison
4. **Adjusted Free Cash Flow**: After capex and cash interest; primary capital allocation metric

**Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP)**:
| | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024E |
|--|--------|--------|---------|
| Adjusted EPS | ~C$0.58 | ~C$0.71 | ~C$0.85 |

*Adjusted EPS is significantly different from GAAP EPS because it excludes amortization of acquisition-related intangibles (~C$500-600M/year) and adjusts out the IFRS effects.*

#### Balance Sheet Summary (Snapshot)

| | Dec 2023 | Dec 2024E |
|--|----------|----------|
| Total Assets | ~C$24B | ~C$22B (ES removed) |
| Goodwill & Intangibles | ~C$14B | ~C$11B (ES removed) |
| Total Debt (gross) | ~C$15.0B | ~C$9.5B (post-paydown) |
| Cash | ~C$1.0B | ~C$1.5B |
| Net Debt | ~C$14.0B | ~C$8.0B |
| Net Debt / Adj. EBITDA | ~5.4x | ~3.5x (using SW EBITDA) |

*This balance sheet transformation — from ~5.4x to ~3.5x leverage — is the core investment thesis for GFL.*

## Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier ($1.00) adds 8 dimensions not included here:

- Revenue Breakdown — segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line margins
- Financial Trends — QoQ momentum, leading indicators, inflection points
- Balance Sheet — debt structure, dilution risk, working capital dynamics
- Capital Allocation — ROIC, buyback cadence, reinvestment efficiency
- Earnings Analysis — beats/misses, guidance vs actuals, transcript highlights
- Competitive Positioning — market share, pricing power, peer benchmarks
- Industry Context — TAM, sector tailwinds/headwinds, regulatory backdrop

**API endpoint:** GET /api/v1/research/GFL/fundamental

## Navigation

- Overview: /stocks/GFL
- Financials (this page): /stocks/GFL/financials
- Thesis: /stocks/GFL/thesis
- Investment Memo: /stocks/GFL/memo
- Coverage universe: /stocks