Graphic Packaging Holding Company

GPK
Financial Analysis · Updated May 18, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
TTM ROIC
6.7%
FY2025 · EBIT / Capital Employed (Total Assets minus estimated non-interest-bearing current liabilities) · WACC ~7.5% · Moat spread +-0.8pp
Margin Profile
Gross 15%
Operating 8.1%
FCF 1.8%
FY2025
Net Debt
$5.6B
Cash $200M · Debt $5.8B · FY2025

Business Overview


ticker: GPK step: 01 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) — Business Overview

Business Description

Graphic Packaging is the world's largest manufacturer of paperboard-based consumer packaging, producing folding cartons, cups, lids, and food containers from renewable and recycled fiber. The company serves the world's leading consumer packaged goods brands (General Mills, Coca-Cola, P&G, McDonald's) across food, beverage, foodservice, and household markets through ~130 manufacturing facilities in 35+ countries. GPK generated ~$8.6B in revenue in FY2025 and commands approximately 40% of the North American folding carton market.

Revenue Model

GPK sells paperboard packaging under multi-year supply agreements with major CPG and foodservice customers. Revenue is volume × price, with raw material cost pass-throughs (recycled fiber, virgin fiber) typically embedded in contracts. The company is vertically integrated — it operates its own paperboard mills, which supply the converting plants that produce finished cartons. This integration provides cost advantages and supply chain control. Two segments: Americas Paperboard Packaging (~75% of revenue) and International Paperboard Packaging (~25%).

Products & Services

  • Folding cartons — cereal boxes, frozen food trays, beverage cartons, pharmaceutical boxes
  • Beverage cups & lids — hot and cold cups for QSR and foodservice
  • Food containers & trays — fresh food packaging, microwaveable trays
  • KeelClip™ — fiber-based multipack clip replacing plastic shrink wrap on canned beverages
  • Boardio™ — paperboard canisters replacing plastic tubes
  • PaperSeal™ — fiber-based lidding replacing plastic film on food trays

Customer Base & Go-to-Market

Customers are primarily Fortune 500 CPG companies and QSR chains. No single customer exceeds 10% of sales. GPK sells direct through dedicated account teams under long-term contracts, typically with annual price mechanisms tied to fiber/energy indices. Key customers include General Mills, Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Nestlé, and major quick-service restaurant operators.

Competitive Position

GPK is the clear #1 in North American folding carton with ~40% market share, ahead of International Paper's packaging spinoff and WestRock (now Smurfit WestRock). The moat is scale (lowest per-unit cost), vertical integration, and proprietary innovation (plastic-to-fiber conversion products targeting a $15B market). The Waco, TX recycled paperboard mill (a $1.67B investment completing in 2025-2026) will further entrench cost leadership.

Key Facts

  • Founded: 1992 (consolidated from multiple predecessors)
  • Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia
  • Employees: ~22,000
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Sector / Industry: Materials / Containers & Packaging
  • Market Cap: ~$4.5B (at ~$15/share, ~295M shares)

Financial Snapshot


ticker: GPK step: 04 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue ~$9.4B $9.42B $8.81B -6.6%
Gross Margin ~16% ~16% ~15% -1pp
Operating Margin ~9% ~9% ~7% -2pp
Net Income ~$600M ~$560M ~$460M -18%
EPS (adj. diluted) ~$2.80 ~$2.85 ~$2.65 -7%

FY2025: Revenue $8.617B (-2% YoY); net income ~$444M (5.2% margin)

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024/2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$900M
Free Cash Flow Compressed (~$200M) due to Waco CapEx ($700M spend in 2025)
Cash & Equivalents ~$200M
Total Debt ~$5.8B

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~6x (adj.) | EV/EBITDA: ~6x | FCF Yield: ~15%+ (normalized 2026+)
  • Revenue Growth (FY2024): -6.6% | Adj. EBITDA: ~$1.7B

Growth Profile

GPK revenue peaked around $9.4B in 2022-2023 as COVID-era pricing gains unwound and CPG customers destocked. Revenue has declined ~9% since peak but is stabilizing. The key investment thesis is FCF normalization: the Waco mill ($1.67B total project) nears completion in early 2026, dropping CapEx from $700M to maintenance levels ($400M) and freeing up $300M+ in incremental FCF annually. Normalized FCF is projected at $700-800M, equating to a ~15% FCF yield on the current market cap.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026 FCF: $700–800M (post-Waco normalization)
  • FY2026 adj. EBITDA: management guiding for improvement from FY2025's ~$1.65B
  • Analyst avg. price target: ~$17 (reset down from ~$20 on cautious 2026 packaging volume outlook)
  • Innovation sales: $213M in FY2025 (~2.5% of net sales)

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $GPK.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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