Intercontinental Exchange Inc.

ICE
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$2.5B
Q4 2025 · +7% YoY
TTM ROIC
7.8%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (Total equity + Total debt - Clearing house collateral assets); NOPAT = Operating income × (1 - 21% tax rate) · WACC ~7.7% · Moat spread +0.1pp
Margin Profile
Operating 60%
FCF 43%
FY2025
Net Debt
$18.0B
Cash $2.0B · Debt $20.0B · FY2025
Diluted Shares
567M
FY2025

Business Overview


ticker: ICE step: 01 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) — Business Overview

Business Description

Intercontinental Exchange is the largest US exchange operator (parent of NYSE), a leading provider of fixed income and data services, and (post-2023 $13B Black Knight acquisition) the dominant mortgage technology platform in the US. ICE has transformed from a derivatives-trading exchange into a diversified financial infrastructure company with ~50% recurring revenue. The company operates global markets across energy, agricultural commodities, fixed income, equities, financial derivatives, and credit default swaps; provides fixed income pricing, indices, ESG data, and analytics; and runs the end-to-end mortgage technology stack (origination, servicing, secondary market). FY25 revenue grew +7% to ~$9.9B with adjusted EPS up +14% to $6.95.

Revenue Model

Three reportable segments:

  • Exchanges ($5.0B FY24, ~50% of revenue) — NYSE, ICE Futures Europe (Brent crude, gasoil), ICE Futures US (sugar, coffee, cotton, cocoa, FX), ICE Futures Singapore, ICE Endex, ICE Clear (clearing houses). Transaction-based revenue + listing fees + market data.
  • Fixed Income and Data Services ($2.3B FY24, ~23%, +3% YoY) — Fixed income pricing + reference data + indices, ICE ESG data, ICE Climate, Best Execution Analysis, Sustainable Finance. Largely subscription-based.
  • Mortgage Technology ($2.0B FY24, ~20%, +Black Knight) — Encompass (origination platform), MSP (servicing), Empower, AIQ, Black Knight Decision Center, Origination Insight Reports, secondary market platforms. Mortgage-life-cycle SaaS.

Revenue mix: ~50% transaction-based (exchange volumes); ~50% recurring (data, subscriptions, mortgage technology SaaS). Strategic goal is to grow recurring revenue mix above 60% by 2028.

Products & Services

  • Exchange Platforms: NYSE (equities listing + trading), NYSE Arca, ICE Futures Europe (Brent + global energy), ICE Futures US (soft commodities + FX), ICE NGX (natural gas + electricity).
  • Clearing Houses: ICE Clear Credit (CDS), ICE Clear Europe (energy derivatives), ICE Clear US (commodities).
  • Fixed Income / Bond Data: ICE BondPoint (institutional fixed income trading), ICE TMC + Indices, ICE Continuous Evaluation Pricing.
  • Climate / ESG: ICE Climate (carbon credits, ESG analytics), ICE Sustainable Finance.
  • Mortgage Technology (post-Black Knight Sept 2023): Encompass (origination), MSP (servicing — 70%+ of US mortgages serviced on MSP), Empower (LOS), Optimal Blue (pricing + secondary), Empower BPS.
  • Bakkt (digital asset trading; minority owned, formerly subsidiary).

Customer Base & Go-to-Market

  • Trading firms: Banks, hedge funds, asset managers, oil/gas/commodities traders, market makers, retail brokers.
  • Public companies: NYSE-listed corporations (~2,400+ companies including 70%+ of largest IPOs in 2024–25).
  • Buyside / Fixed Income: Asset managers, pension funds using ICE BondPoint + Indices + analytics.
  • Mortgage Industry: Banks, credit unions, independent mortgage banks; ~70%+ of US mortgages are serviced using MSP platform; majority of new loans originate via Encompass.

Distribution: Direct enterprise sales; technology integration via APIs; broker-dealer routing to NYSE; mortgage industry workflow embedded in MSP/Encompass.

Competitive Position

ICE is one of three "exchange + market infrastructure" giants alongside Nasdaq (NDAQ) and CME Group (CME). Structural advantages:

  1. NYSE + Brent crude near-monopolies — NYSE largest cap weighting; Brent crude (ICE Futures Europe) is THE global oil benchmark.
  2. CDS clearing oligopoly — ICE Clear Credit handles ~95% of CDS clearing globally.
  3. Mortgage technology near-monopoly — Post-Black Knight: ~70%+ US mortgage servicing on MSP; majority of LOS through Encompass. End-to-end mortgage workflow dominance.
  4. Subscription / recurring revenue mix expanding — ~50% recurring today; targeting >60% by 2028; reduces cyclicality of pure-exchange revenue.
  5. Climate + ESG data leadership — ICE Climate uniquely positioned in carbon markets + sustainable finance regulation environment.

Competitive challenges:

  • CME Group (CME) — Dominant in US Treasury futures, equity index futures (S&P 500); larger market cap.
  • Nasdaq (NDAQ) — Equities listings competition (esp. tech), market data, financial crime management.
  • MarketAxess, Tradeweb — Fixed income electronic trading platforms with growing share.
  • Bloomberg LP — Indirect competitor on data + BondPoint trading.
  • AI / Cloud disruption risk for mortgage technology — New AI-native fintech entrants targeting Encompass + MSP.

Key Facts

  • Founded: 2000
  • Headquarters: Atlanta, Georgia
  • Employees: ~13,000
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Sector / Industry: Financials / Capital Markets
  • Market Cap: ~$95B
  • FY2025 Revenue: $9.931B (+7%)
  • FY2025 Adjusted EPS: $6.95 (+14%)
  • FY2025 Adjusted FCF: $4.2B
  • Major Recent Acquisitions: Black Knight ($13B, Sept 2023, mortgage technology)
  • Dividend: $0.52 quarterly (raised 6% in 2026); $2.08 annual
  • Dividend Yield: ~1.3%
  • Black Knight Synergy Target: $275M by YE 2028 (already at $230M annualized)
  • Net Debt / EBITDA: 3.0x (reduced from post-Black Knight peak)
  • Recurring Revenue Mix Target by 2028: >60%

Financial Snapshot


ticker: ICE step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY (FY25)
Net Revenue $8.0B $9.28B $9.93B +7.0%
Exchanges Revenue $4.5B $5.0B ~$5.3B mid-single-digit
Fixed Income & Data Services $2.3B $2.3B ~$2.4B +3-4%
Mortgage Technology $1.2B $2.0B ~$2.2B +10%+ (incl. Black Knight)
Adjusted Operating Margin ~58% ~59% ~60% +100 bps
Adjusted Diluted EPS $5.59 $6.10 $6.95 +14%

Cash Flow & Capital Allocation (FY2025)

Metric Value
Adjusted Free Cash Flow $4.2B
Capital Expenditures $0.8B (cloud + AI strategic capex)
Operating Cash Flow ~$5.0B
Share Repurchases $1.3B
Dividends Paid ~$1.1B
Quarterly Dividend (early 2026) $0.52 (+6% raise from $0.48)
Annual Dividend $2.08
Dividend Yield ~1.3%
Cash & Marketable Securities ~$2B
Total Debt ~$20B (Black Knight financing)
Net Debt / EBITDA 3.0x (reduced from post-Black Knight peak)

Black Knight Integration

Metric Status
Acquisition Price $13B (Sept 2023)
Synergy Target $275M by YE 2028
Annualized Synergies (early 2026) $230M (ahead of plan)
Mortgage Servicing Market Share (MSP) ~70%+ US
FY26 Mortgage Technology Growth Guide low-to-mid single digit

FY2026 Outlook (Qualitative)

Metric 2026 Outlook
Total Revenue Growth mid-single digit
Recurring Revenue Growth mid-single digit
Mortgage Technology Growth low-to-mid single digit
Recurring Revenue Mix Target by 2028 >60%
Strategic Capex ~$0.8B (cloud + AI migration)

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~24x (FY26 adjusted EPS estimate ~$7.45) | EV/EBITDA: ~18x | FCF Yield: ~4.4%
  • Revenue Growth (FY25): +7.0% | FCF Margin: ~42%
  • Adjusted Operating Margin: ~60% (best-in-class)
  • Dividend Yield: ~1.3% | Dividend Growth: +6% (FY26)
  • Net Debt / EBITDA: 3.0x

Growth Profile

FY25 was a record year — adjusted EPS $6.95 (+14%); record adjusted FCF $4.2B; record revenue $9.93B. The strategic narrative is diversification into recurring revenue + Black Knight integration synergies:

  • Black Knight integration ahead of plan: $230M annualized synergies vs. $275M target by YE 2028.
  • Recurring revenue mix on path to 60%+ by 2028.
  • Mortgage Technology growth in low-mid single digits as US housing transactions stay subdued (mortgage rate lock-in continues).
  • Cloud migration + AI investment ramping ($0.8B capex earmark).

FY26 setup: continued mid-single-digit revenue growth + ongoing margin expansion + Black Knight synergies + reduced leverage = double-digit EPS growth. Recurring revenue stability vs. transactional Exchange revenue creates a more resilient model.

Forward Estimates

FY2026 (Consensus):

  • Revenue: ~$10.4–10.6B (+5–7%)
  • Adjusted EPS: ~$7.45–7.75 (+7–11%)

Bull case: Mortgage market recovery on Fed rate cuts unlocks Mortgage Technology to high-single-digit growth; Brent crude volatility supports Exchanges; multiple expands to 26–28x P/E. Bear case: Mortgage rates remain elevated; commodities volume normalizes; Exchanges decelerate; multiple compresses to 20x P/E. Consensus targets ~$190–215 vs. trading ~$165–175 (~15–25% implied upside).

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $ICE.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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