Eli Lilly and Company

LLY
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$19.8B
Q1 FY2026 · +56% YoY
TTM ROIC
21%
FY2025 · NOPAT (EBIT × (1-0.21)) / Invested Capital (incl. goodwill) · WACC ~8.5% · Moat spread +13pp
DCF Fair Value
$1394
Base case · WACC 8.5% · Terminal 4% · +38% vs. current price
Margin Profile
Gross 83%
Operating 39%
FCF 14%
FY2025
Net Debt
$28.0B
Cash $5.0B · Debt $33.0B · FY2025
Diluted Shares
942M
May 2026

Business Overview


ticker: LLY step: 01 generated: 2026-05-11 source: quick-research

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — Business Overview

Business Description

Eli Lilly is a US-based global pharmaceutical company that has emerged as the dominant force in the incretin (GLP-1 / GIP) class for diabetes and obesity treatment. Its tirzepatide franchise — marketed as Mounjaro (diabetes) and Zepbound (obesity) — has reshaped both the company and the broader cardiometabolic drug market. Beyond cardiometabolic, Lilly is a significant player in oncology, immunology, and Alzheimer's disease, with Kisunla (donanemab) approved for early symptomatic Alzheimer's.

Revenue Model

  • Branded pharmaceutical sales (~98% of revenue): Direct sales to pharmacies, hospitals, and PBMs in the US, plus international sales (mostly through subsidiaries). Key franchises include the tirzepatide twins (Mounjaro / Zepbound), Verzenio (oncology), Taltz (immunology), Trulicity (legacy diabetes), Jardiance (diabetes, partnered with Boehringer Ingelheim), Kisunla (Alzheimer's), and Ebglyss (atopic dermatitis).
  • Royalty & collaboration income: Partnerships including Boehringer Ingelheim on Jardiance.
  • Direct-to-consumer cash-pay: LillyDirect platform sells Zepbound vials directly to self-pay consumers in the US — a structurally important channel that bypasses PBM rebates.

Pricing is largely list-minus-rebate in the US, with growing direct cash-pay share for obesity. International pricing is materially lower; volume is the constraint, not demand.

Products & Services

  • Mounjaro (tirzepatide) — Type 2 diabetes (largest franchise, $7.4B in Q4 2025 alone, +110% YoY)
  • Zepbound (tirzepatide) — Obesity (US Q4 2025 revenue $4.2B, +122% YoY)
  • Trulicity (dulaglutide) — Legacy GLP-1, declining as Mounjaro cannibalizes
  • Verzenio (abemaciclib) — Breast cancer
  • Taltz (ixekizumab) — Psoriasis / psoriatic arthritis / axial spondyloarthritis
  • Jardiance (empagliflozin) — Diabetes (BI-partnered)
  • Kisunla (donanemab) — Early symptomatic Alzheimer's
  • Ebglyss (lebrikizumab) — Atopic dermatitis
  • Pipeline: orforglipron (oral GLP-1, Phase 3 / regulatory submitted), retatrutide (triple agonist), eloralintide, MK-0616 partnership (PCSK9), multiple oncology and Alzheimer's candidates

Customer Base & Go-to-Market

  • US (~70% of revenue): Sold through PBMs, retail pharmacies, hospitals, and increasingly direct via LillyDirect. Heavy DTC marketing for Zepbound.
  • International (~30% and growing fast): Direct sales subsidiaries in Europe, China, Japan, Latin America; international Zepbound/Mounjaro launches accelerating as manufacturing capacity comes online.
  • Hospital and specialty channel: For oncology (Verzenio), immunology (Taltz), and Alzheimer's (Kisunla, infused).
  • Payer mix: Commercial insurance, Medicare Part D, Medicaid (heavy rebate exposure), and a fast-growing cash-pay segment.

No single customer represents material concentration; the principal demand-side risk is payer coverage for obesity (Medicare, employer plans).

Competitive Position

Lilly has decisively taken the lead in the incretin class, capturing ~57% of the GLP-1 / GIP market by Q2 2025 (up from ~53% earlier in the year), with Novo Nordisk losing share for the first time. The moat sources are: (1) efficacy — tirzepatide delivers ~20% body weight reduction vs. ~14% for semaglutide; (2) manufacturing scale — Lilly has committed >$50B in US capex (Alabama, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Europe) and produced 1.6x more salable doses in H1 2025 vs. H1 2024; (3) pipeline depth — orforglipron (oral GLP-1) outperformed oral semaglutide head-to-head and is submitted for approval, retatrutide is the next-generation triple agonist; (4) diversification — oncology, immunology, and Alzheimer's franchises provide non-GLP-1 revenue, unlike Novo's narrower portfolio. Key risks: payer pushback on obesity pricing, MFN executive order pricing pressure, compounded GLP-1 competition (largely curtailed), and longer-term obesity competition from Pfizer, Roche, Amgen, and Viking.

Key Facts

  • Founded: 1876
  • Headquarters: Indianapolis, IN
  • Employees: ~47,000
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Sector / Industry: Health Care / Pharmaceuticals
  • Market Cap: ~$700B (May 2026)

Financial Snapshot


ticker: LLY step: 04 generated: 2026-05-11 source: quick-research

Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY (25v24)
Revenue $28.5B $34.1B $45.0B $65.2B +44.7%
Gross Margin ~75% ~80% ~81% ~83% +200 bps
Operating Margin 23% 17% 32% ~39% +700 bps
Net Income $6.2B $5.2B $10.6B ~$22B +108%
EPS (diluted) $6.90 $5.80 $11.71 ~$24.50 +109%

Note: FY2023 net income / margin compressed due to large in-process R&D writedowns from the Versanis and POINT Biopharma acquisitions; FY2024 expanded materially as those one-time charges rolled off and tirzepatide ramped.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$15B
Capex ~$11B (heavy manufacturing buildout)
Free Cash Flow ~$4B (constrained by capex)
Cash & Investments ~$5B
Total Debt ~$33B
Net Debt ~+$28B

Key Ratios (approximate, May 2026)

  • P/E: ~28x | EV/EBITDA: ~25x | FCF Yield: ~0.7% (suppressed by capex)
  • Revenue Growth (TTM): ~45% | Gross Margin: ~83% | Operating Margin: ~39%
  • Capex / Revenue: ~17% — Lilly is in the steepest manufacturing build cycle in big-pharma history

Growth Profile

Lilly has gone from ~$28B in revenue in 2022 to ~$65B in 2025 — a roughly 2.3x expansion in three years, almost entirely driven by the tirzepatide franchise (Mounjaro + Zepbound combined run-rate >$45B by end of 2025). The constraint has been supply, not demand: Lilly produced 1.6x more salable doses in H1 2025 vs. H1 2024. Operating leverage is now compounding meaningfully — gross margin remains in the low-80s and operating margin has expanded from 17% (2023, depressed by IPR&D charges) to ~39% (2025). Free cash flow is structurally suppressed by the $50B+ multi-year US manufacturing capex program.

Forward Estimates

2026 guidance (issued Feb 2026): Revenue $80–83B (+25% YoY). Consensus FY2026 EPS: ~$31. Bull-side scenarios pencil in 2027 revenue >$100B if orforglipron (oral GLP-1) launches strongly in H2 2026 and Zepbound DTC volumes ramp. Bear-side scenarios bake in MFN pricing pressure on US obesity prices, slower-than-expected payer expansion, and 2030+ generic erosion of tirzepatide.

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $LLY.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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