Molina Healthcare Inc.
MOHFinancial Snapshot
ticker: MOH step: 04 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research
Molina Healthcare, Inc. (MOH) — Financial Snapshot
Income Statement Summary
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $31.97B | $34.07B | $40.65B | +19.3% |
| MCR (Medical Care Ratio) | ~88% | ~88% | ~90%+ | |
| Operating Margin | ~3.5% | ~3.5% | ~2.5% | |
| Net Income | ~$850M | ~$1.0B | ~$700M | -30% |
| EPS (adjusted diluted) | ~$17.00 | ~$20.88 | ~$18.00 | -14% |
FY2022-FY2023: stable and profitable; MCR managed at ~88%. FY2024: Medicaid cost trends (acuity higher than expected post-COVID, redetermination of ineligible members slower than expected) drove MCR above 90%, compressing margins. FY2025: premium revenue $43.1B (+11%), but negative $535M operating cash flow — a serious deterioration. Q4 2025 reported a loss; FY2026 guidance sharply weaker than consensus.
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024/2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Free Cash Flow (FY2023) | ~$1.6B |
| Free Cash Flow (FY2024) | ~$544M (-66% YoY) |
| Operating Cash Flow (FY2025) | -$535M (negative — significant deterioration) |
| Total Debt | ~$3.77B (rising) |
| Cash & Equivalents | ~$4.5B (state-regulated reserves included) |
| MCR Medicaid (FY2025) | 91.8% |
| MCR Medicare (FY2025) | 92.4% |
| MCR Marketplace (FY2025) | 90.6% |
Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~10x (on depressed 2026 guidance EPS) | EV/EBITDA: ~8x
- Revenue Growth (FY2025): +11% | Premium Revenue: $43.1B
- Net Margin: ~1.5% (at current MCR levels — thin spread business)
- Members: ~5.6M (Sep 2025)
Growth Profile
Molina grew revenue rapidly through 2022-2024 via contract wins (Florida, California expansions) and acquisitions. However, profitability has severely deteriorated: Medicaid MCRs rose above 90% (vs. sustainable ~88%) due to post-COVID utilization normalization, acuity increases in managed LTSS populations, retroactive California Medicaid adjustments, and state rate increases lagging cost trends. The company is in a trough — management's FY2026 guidance implies a recovery to positive cash flow as rates catch up. Medicare Advantage Part D exit (2027) removes ~$1B of an underperforming segment.
Forward Estimates
- FY2026 guidance: Significantly below prior Street estimates — caused 28% stock decline in Feb 2026
- Consensus Hold: 12 analysts; avg. price target ~$167 (modest upside from ~$145-150)
- Q1 2026 actual EPS: beat estimates, stock +9.1%; guidance included in update
- Recovery thesis: MCR normalization in 2027-2028 as state rates catch up to costs
- Risk: Medicaid FMAP federal match rate reductions being discussed in Congress
Deeper Financial Analysis
The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $MOH.