Marathon Petroleum Corporation

MPC
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$34.2B
Q1 2026 · +8.5% YoY · Beat consensus by 120%
TTM ROIC
14.5%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital; blended R&M (~$16B IC, ~20% ROIC) + MPLX (~$37B IC, ~11-12% ROIC), weighted by capital deployed · WACC ~7% · Moat spread +7.5pp

Financial Snapshot

ticker: MPC step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY (25)
Revenue $180.0B $148.4B $138.9B $132.7B -4.4%
Throughput (MMbbl/d) 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 +3%
R&M Margin per bbl $30.21 $19.69 $14.20 $16.40 +15%
Adj EBITDA $24.7B $17.7B $11.4B $12.0B +5%
Net Income $14.5B $9.7B $3.4B $4.0B +18%
Diluted EPS $25.16 $23.63 $10.08 $13.22 +31%

Q4 25 R&M margin $18.65/bbl (vs $12.93 Q4 24); Q1 26 strong on Middle East geopolitical premium. Crack spread normalization underpins 2026 EPS ~$21 consensus.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow $8.3B
Capex ~$2.5B
Free Cash Flow ~$5.8B
Cash & Equivalents ~$5.5B
Total Debt (including MPLX) ~$30B
MPLX Distributions to MPC ~$2.8B annually (2025); $3.5B+ target

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~11x | EV/EBITDA: ~7x | FCF Yield: ~7%
  • Revenue Growth (TTM): -4.4% | Op Margin: ~5%
  • Dividend Yield: ~2.0% | Dividend: $4.20/share
  • $4.5B 2025 capital returns; $5B new buyback auth + $8.6B total

Growth Profile

Refining cycle driver: crack spreads + sour crude differentials. 2026 EPS doubling potential ($10.70 → $21) based on Gulf Coast tightness + Venezuelan crude optionality. MPLX distributions stable + growing ($2.8B → $3.5B annual to MPC). Capital allocation: $8.6B buyback authorization = ~10% market cap. Aggressive return of capital with refining cycle.

Forward Estimates

  • FY 2026: Adj EPS $17-21 (range reflects crack spread variability)
  • FY 2027: Normalize toward $13-15 (mid-cycle crack assumption)
  • Bull case: $244 mean price target, $331 high (Gulf Coast tight); Bear: $174 (crack normalization)
  • MPC has unmatched earnings leverage to crack spreads in absolute dollars

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $MPC.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
GET /api/v1/research/MPC/fundamental$1.00 · Bearer token required
Markdown: /stocks/mpc/financials/md · → thesis · → memo
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) — Financial Analysis | Margin of Insight