Marathon Petroleum Corporation

MPC
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$34.2B
Q1 2026 · +8.5% YoY · Beat consensus by 120%
TTM ROIC
14.5%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (blended R&M ~$16B + MPLX ~$37B = ~$53B total) · WACC ~7% · Moat spread +7.5pp
Margin Profile
Gross 10.4%
Operating 6.1%
FCF 3.5%
FY2025
Net Debt
$24.5B
Cash $5.5B · Debt $30.0B · FY2025
Diluted Shares
292M
Q1 2026

Business Overview


ticker: MPC step: 01 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) — Business Overview

Business Description

Marathon Petroleum is the largest US independent petroleum refiner by throughput + complexity. Operates 13 refineries with ~3 million barrels per calendar day of crude refining capacity. Post-Speedway sale (May 2021, $21B), MPC refocused on refining + midstream. Owns general partner + majority limited partner interest in MPLX LP (midstream company). Run by CEO/Chairman Maryann Mannen (since 2024, former CFO).

Revenue Model

~$133B FY2025 revenue across two segments: Refining & Marketing (R&M, ~85%) and Midstream (MPLX, ~15%). R&M revenue from crude oil → refined product sales (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel). Crack spreads (refined product margin over crude cost) drive profitability. Midstream provides stable fee-based cash flow. MPLX distributions to MPC ~$3.5B+ annually = covers MPC dividend + significant portion of capex.

Products & Services

  • 13 Refineries — Largest US independent refining network; ~95% utilization Q3 25
  • Refined Products — Gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, asphalt, heavy oils, chemicals
  • MPLX LP — Crude oil + natural gas + NGL gathering, processing, fractionation, transportation
  • Marathon-branded gas stations — Wholesale supply via Marathon brand (not company-owned post-Speedway)
  • Renewable diesel — Dickinson + Martinez facilities (transition energy)
  • Export terminals — Gulf Coast diesel + product exports

Customer Base & Go-to-Market

Sells through wholesale channels to Marathon-branded fuel stations + commercial customers (truckers, airlines, marine), industrial customers, governments. Significant gulf coast export business (ULSD + gasoline to Latin America + Asia + Europe). MPLX serves midstream customers (E&P companies + refiners + marketers).

Competitive Position

#1 US independent refiner by throughput + complexity. Competes with Valero (VLO), Phillips 66 (PSX), HF Sinclair, PBF Energy, ExxonMobil refining. Differentiation: largest scale + most complex refineries (process lower-cost crude oils) + Gulf Coast export advantage + MPLX integration. Runs ~50% sour crude (10% above closest peer) — captures sour crude advantage. Every $1 widening in sour differentials = ~$500M annual EBIT.

Key Facts

  • Founded: 2009 (spun off from Marathon Oil)
  • Headquarters: Findlay, OH
  • Employees: ~17,000
  • Exchange: NYSE (MPC)
  • Sector / Industry: Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
  • Market Cap: ~$80B
  • CEO/Chairman: Maryann Mannen (CEO since 2024; Chairman since 2025)

Financial Snapshot


ticker: MPC step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY (25)
Revenue $180.0B $148.4B $138.9B $132.7B -4.4%
Throughput (MMbbl/d) 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 +3%
R&M Margin per bbl $30.21 $19.69 $14.20 $16.40 +15%
Adj EBITDA $24.7B $17.7B $11.4B $12.0B +5%
Net Income $14.5B $9.7B $3.4B $4.0B +18%
Diluted EPS $25.16 $23.63 $10.08 $13.22 +31%

Q4 25 R&M margin $18.65/bbl (vs $12.93 Q4 24); Q1 26 strong on Middle East geopolitical premium. Crack spread normalization underpins 2026 EPS ~$21 consensus.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow $8.3B
Capex ~$2.5B
Free Cash Flow ~$5.8B
Cash & Equivalents ~$5.5B
Total Debt (including MPLX) ~$30B
MPLX Distributions to MPC ~$2.8B annually (2025); $3.5B+ target

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~11x | EV/EBITDA: ~7x | FCF Yield: ~7%
  • Revenue Growth (TTM): -4.4% | Op Margin: ~5%
  • Dividend Yield: ~2.0% | Dividend: $4.20/share
  • $4.5B 2025 capital returns; $5B new buyback auth + $8.6B total

Growth Profile

Refining cycle driver: crack spreads + sour crude differentials. 2026 EPS doubling potential ($10.70 → $21) based on Gulf Coast tightness + Venezuelan crude optionality. MPLX distributions stable + growing ($2.8B → $3.5B annual to MPC). Capital allocation: $8.6B buyback authorization = ~10% market cap. Aggressive return of capital with refining cycle.

Forward Estimates

  • FY 2026: Adj EPS $17-21 (range reflects crack spread variability)
  • FY 2027: Normalize toward $13-15 (mid-cycle crack assumption)
  • Bull case: $244 mean price target, $331 high (Gulf Coast tight); Bear: $174 (crack normalization)
  • MPC has unmatched earnings leverage to crack spreads in absolute dollars

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $MPC.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
GET /api/v1/research/MPC/fundamental$1.00 · Bearer token required
Markdown: /stocks/mpc/financials/md · → thesis · → memo