Moderna Inc.

MRNA
Financial Analysis · Updated May 29, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$1.9B
Q3 2024 · +1.4% YoY
TTM ROIC
54%
FY2022 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (Equity + Capitalized Leases - Excess Cash; no debt) · WACC ~14% · Moat spread +40pp
Margin Profile
Gross 45.4%
Operating -100.1%
FY2023
Net Cash
$10.2B
Cash $10.2B · Debt $0M · FY2023 Year-End
Diluted Shares
387M
FY2023 · -1.8% (buyback)

Business Overview


source: coverage-next-full ticker: MRNA step: "01" title: Business Overview — Company Description, Segments, and Product Portfolio created: 2026-05-29

Step 01 — Business Overview

Company Description

Moderna, Inc. is a clinical-stage and commercial-stage biotechnology company headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts. Founded in 2010 by CEO Stéphane Bancel, Robert Langer (MIT), Derrick Rossi, Kenneth Chien, and Timothy Springer, with Noubar Afeyan's Flagship Pioneering as the founding VC firm, Moderna pioneered the use of messenger RNA (mRNA) as a programmable drug platform.

The company's core insight — that mRNA could be delivered into human cells to direct them to produce therapeutic proteins, including antigens for vaccine purposes — underlay its entire product portfolio. The COVID-19 pandemic transformed Moderna from a pre-revenue clinical-stage company into one of the world's largest vaccine manufacturers almost overnight; mRNA-1273 (Spikevax) received Emergency Use Authorization in December 2020, less than a year after the SARS-CoV-2 genome was published.

Business Model

Moderna operates a platform business model in which the same core mRNA and lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery technology is applied across multiple therapeutic areas. Unlike traditional pharmaceutical companies that must develop entirely new chemistry for each drug, Moderna's process of designing a new mRNA sequence, encapsulating it in LNPs, and testing it follows a repeatable workflow — often called the "software of life" analogy.

Revenue is generated almost entirely from:

  1. Product sales of Spikevax (COVID-19 vaccine) to governments and commercial distributors
  2. Grant/collaboration revenue (relatively minor; includes NIH/BARDA and Merck partnerships)

Operating Segments

Moderna reports as a single operating segment (vaccine development and commercialization). It does not break out segments by therapeutic area in financial reporting.

Commercial Products (as of late 2024)
Product Indication Status Revenue Contribution
Spikevax (mRNA-1273) COVID-19 (primary + booster) Commercially approved (US, EU, global) ~95%+ of total revenue
mRESVIA (mRNA-1345) RSV (adults 60+) FDA approved June 2024 Early launch; small FY2024 contribution
Pipeline Overview (Development-Stage)
Program Indication Phase Partner Notes
mRNA-1345 RSV (adults 60+) Commercial First non-COVID approval
mRNA-1283 Next-gen COVID Phase 3 Improved tolerability
mRNA-1020 Flu + COVID combo Phase 3 Combination vaccine
mRNA-1010 Seasonal influenza Phase 3 Standalone flu
mRNA-4157/V940 Personalized cancer vaccine (NSCLC, melanoma, others) Phase 2/3 Merck/MSD Showed ~44% distant recurrence reduction in melanoma
mRNA-1574 HIV Phase 1/2
mRNA-1647 CMV (cytomegalovirus) Phase 3 Broad latent-virus market
INT-787 NASH/metabolic liver disease Phase 1
mRNA-1189 EBV Phase 1
Various rare disease OTC deficiency, PA, MMA Phase 1/2 Intrahepatic mRNA delivery

Key Technology Platform

mRNA Platform

Moderna's proprietary mRNA consists of:

  • Chemically modified nucleosides (pseudouridine substitution) that reduce innate immune activation
  • Optimized 5' cap structures and 3' UTR sequences for enhanced translation and stability
  • Proprietary sequences encoding target antigens or therapeutic proteins
Lipid Nanoparticle (LNP) Delivery

LNPs encapsulate mRNA and enable cellular uptake. Moderna's LNP formulations are subject to ongoing patent disputes with Arbutus Biopharma/Genevant Sciences and cross-licensing negotiations. The Alnylam collaboration also touches LNP IP. This is a material litigation risk.

Manufacturing
  • Norwood, MA: Primary U.S. manufacturing site (drug substance + fill-finish)
  • Marlborough, MA: Commercial-scale fill-finish
  • International partnerships: Lonza (Switzerland, United States), Samsung Biologics (South Korea), Catalent
  • Moderna Africa: Vaccine manufacturing facility in Kenya (government-backed; partially operational as of 2024)

Geographic Reach

Spikevax is approved in 70+ countries. Revenue is diversified across:

  • United States (~30-40% of product sales in recent periods)
  • Europe (EU member states, UK)
  • Japan (large contracted volumes historically)
  • Other developed markets
  • Developing markets (limited volumes via COVAX / advance purchase agreements)

Headcount & Scale

  • ~5,000 full-time employees as of FY2023 (up from ~3,900 at FY2021 year-end)
  • Significant workforce restructuring announced in 2024 (targeting cost reductions amid revenue decline)

Strategic Positioning

Moderna positions itself as a platform technology company, not merely a COVID vaccine company. The long-term investment thesis rests on whether the mRNA platform's advantages (speed of design, immunogenicity, potential for combinations) translate into commercial dominance in respiratory vaccines (RSV, flu, COVID combo) and transformative oncology products (personalized cancer vaccines). The personalized cancer vaccine program (mRNA-4157 with Merck) is viewed by some as the most potentially value-accretive pipeline asset in biopharma.

Financial Snapshot


source: coverage-next-full ticker: MRNA step: "04" title: Financial Snapshot — 3-Year P&L Summary, Key Ratios, Profitability Trajectory created: 2026-05-29

Step 04 — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary (FY2021–FY2023)

Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
Revenue $18,471M $18,453M $6,849M
Cost of Sales $3,280M $5,257M $3,741M
Gross Profit $15,191M $13,196M $3,108M
Gross Margin % 82.2% 71.5% 45.4%
Research & Development $2,971M $3,604M $4,767M
Selling, General & Admin $663M $1,043M $945M
Operating Income (Loss) $11,416M $8,307M ($6,857M)
Operating Margin % 61.8% 45.0% (100.1%)
Interest Income / (Expense) $205M $541M $590M
Other Income $30M $(3M) $(180M)
Pre-Tax Income (Loss) $11,651M $8,845M ($6,447M)
Income Tax (Expense) / Benefit $(760M) $(483M) $(309M)
Net Income (Loss) $12,202M $8,362M ($6,756M)
Net Margin % 66.1% 45.3% (98.6%)

Note: FY2021 net income includes $761M tax benefit; FY2023 loss includes ~$1.4B inventory write-down in COGS.

Earnings Per Share

Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
Diluted EPS $28.33 $21.00 ($17.45)
Diluted Shares (M) 430.7 394.1 387.0
Basic EPS $29.89 $21.41 ($17.45)

Note: EPS decline from FY2021→FY2022 despite similar revenue reflects margin compression (higher COGS mix, royalties) and reduced diluted share count from buybacks.

Revenue and Gross Profit Trajectory

Revenue ($M):
FY2021: $18,471  [██████████████████████████████████]
FY2022: $18,453  [██████████████████████████████████]
FY2023:  $6,849  [████████████ ]
FY2024E: ~$3,250 [██████       ]

Gross Margin (%):
FY2021: 82.2%  → Peak (no competition, no royalties baked in, favorable product mix)
FY2022: 71.5%  → Compression from supply chain, COVAX pricing, inventory provisions
FY2023: 45.4%  → Inventory write-downs + underabsorption of fixed manufacturing costs
FY2024E: ~30-35% → Expected further compression; mRESVIA launch costs

EBITDA and Cash Flow Summary

Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
EBITDA ~$11,700M ~$8,900M ~($6,200M)
Depreciation & Amortization ~$285M ~$590M ~$670M
Stock-Based Compensation ~$553M ~$768M ~$818M
Adjusted EBITDA (excl. SBC) ~$12,538M ~$10,238M ~($5,382M)

Working Capital & Key Balance Sheet Items (FY2023 Year-End)

Item FY2022 FY2023
Cash & Cash Equivalents $3,160M $3,165M
Short-term Investments $5,137M $4,519M
Long-term Investments $2,899M $2,541M
Total Cash & Investments $11,196M $10,225M
Accounts Receivable $1,782M $444M
Inventories $2,960M $763M
Total Current Assets $14,427M $10,115M
PP&E, Net $2,247M $2,235M
Total Assets $19,222M $15,288M
Accounts Payable $793M $380M
Deferred Revenue (current) $1,199M $247M
Total Current Liabilities $4,165M $1,606M
Long-term Debt $0 $0
Total Equity $13,462M $12,218M

Key insight: Zero long-term debt; ~$10.2B cash/investments at FY2023 year-end. But burning ~$3–4B/year at FY2024 run-rate.

Profitability Ratios

Metric FY2021 FY2022 FY2023
Gross Margin 82.2% 71.5% 45.4%
R&D as % of Revenue 16.1% 19.5% 69.6%
SG&A as % of Revenue 3.6% 5.7% 13.8%
Operating Margin 61.8% 45.0% (100.1%)
Net Margin 66.1% 45.3% (98.6%)
ROIC ~82% ~47% N.M. (negative)
ROE ~95% ~59% N.M. (negative)

Cost Structure Analysis

COGS Components
  • Royalties: Moderna pays royalties on Spikevax related to third-party IP (including settlement payments with Arbutus and cross-licensing with Alnylam); estimated 5-8% of product revenue
  • Manufacturing costs: Fixed-base manufacturing (Norwood, Marlborough) + CDMO fees (Lonza, Catalent, Samsung); significant underutilization impact as volumes decline
  • Inventory write-downs: FY2023 included ~$1.4B in inventory write-downs as COVID demand fell below contracted commitments
  • Distribution and fulfillment: Logistics for multi-country delivery; declining with volume
R&D Investment Profile

R&D spending has increased every year despite revenue collapse — a deliberate strategy to maintain pipeline velocity:

Year R&D Spend R&D as % Rev
FY2020 $1,435M N.M. (pre-commercial)
FY2021 $2,971M 16.1%
FY2022 $3,604M 19.5%
FY2023 $4,767M 69.6%
FY2024E ~$4,500–5,000M ~140-155%

This R&D-to-revenue ratio is unsustainable at current revenue levels — it is explicitly a bridge strategy funded by the COVID windfall cash reserve.

Cash Burn Rate Analysis

With ~$10B cash at FY2023 year-end and ~$3.5–4.5B annual operating cash burn at current trajectory:

Year Projected Cash Balance (Est.) Assumption
FY2023 YE $10,225M Actual
FY2024E YE ~$7,500–8,000M COVID revenue $3.2B, burn ~$2.5B
FY2025E YE ~$5,000–6,500M RSV/next-gen COVID partial ramp
FY2026E YE ~$3,000–5,000M Pipeline execution dependent
FY2027E YE Breakeven potential if pipeline hits Highly dependent on flu/CMV approval

The critical date: Moderna has guided for "breakeven operating cash flow by 2026" if pipeline milestones are met. If pipeline slips, a capital raise becomes likely by 2026-2027.

FY2024 Quarterly Revenue Context (through Q3 2024)

Quarter Revenue Net Income (Loss)
Q1 2024 $167M (~$1.1B)
Q2 2024 $241M (~$1.3B)
Q3 2024 $1,857M (~$500M)
Q4 2024E ~$1,000M (~$500M)
FY2024E Total ~$3,265M (~$3,400M)

Q3 2024 seasonal pick-up reflects COVID booster season + early mRESVIA shipments. Full-year loss estimate per consensus.

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $MRNA.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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