Match Group Inc.

MTCH
Financial Analysis · Updated May 18, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$863.9M
Q1 2026 · +4.2% YoY
TTM ROIC
14.3%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital; NOPAT = Adj. EBITDA × (1 - ~22% effective tax rate); Invested Capital = Net Debt + Total Equity · WACC ~9% · Moat spread +5.3pp

Financial Snapshot

ticker: MTCH step: 04 generated: 2026-05-13 source: quick-research

Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue $3.19B $3.37B $3.48B +3.4%
Operating Margin ~26% ~26% ~25%
Net Income ~$0.3B ~$0.5B ~$0.5B ~flat
EPS (diluted) ~$1.10 ~$1.90 ~$2.00 +5%

FY2025: Revenue modest growth ~2–4%; Hinge +26% in Q4 2025 partially offsets Tinder -3%. Total payers 14.9M (-5% YoY); RPP $19.12 (+8% YoY). New CEO Spencer Rascoff took helm Feb 2025.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$1.0B
Free Cash Flow $0.88B
Capital Expenditures ~$0.1B
Cash & Equivalents ~$0.8B
Total Debt ~$3.8B

FCF is strong and growing: $477M (2022) → $829M (2023) → $882M (2024). Company committed to returning >100% of FCF through 2027 via buybacks and dividends — over 35% of market cap.

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~16x (adj. FY2024) | EV/EBITDA: ~9x | FCF Yield: ~11%
  • Revenue Growth (TTM): ~3–4% | FCF Margin: ~25%

Growth Profile

Match Group is a high-FCF, slow-revenue-growth story. Revenue growth has decelerated from 20%+ (2020–2021 COVID dating app boom) to ~3–4% as Tinder payer count declines offset Hinge's rapid growth and RPP pricing power. FCF margins (~25%) are healthy for a software/media company. The stock has been a value trap for three years — cheap on FCF but weighed down by Tinder's structural decline narrative. The bull thesis requires Tinder stabilization + Hinge's $1B trajectory to re-accelerate top-line growth to 6–10%.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026/2027: Revenue growth dependent on Tinder stabilization; Hinge → $1B by 2027
  • Analyst consensus PT: ~$36 (13 Hold / 7 Buy; TD Cowen $46 Buy, UBS $38 Neutral)
  • Capital return: >100% of FCF via buybacks through 2027; ~35% of market cap in 3 years
  • Hinge direct revenue: $550M (2024) → $700M+ (2025) → $1B (2027)
  • Tinder payers: 8.6M (Q1 2026), down from peak 10.9M; stabilization needed for re-rating

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $MTCH.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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Markdown: /stocks/mtch/financials/md · → thesis · → memo