Occidental Petroleum Corporation
OXYFinancial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$5.1B
Q1 2026 · Missed consensus by 2%
TTM ROIC
7.5%
FY2025 (base $70/bbl WTI) · NOPAT (adj. net income, tax-effected) / Invested Capital (PP&E + goodwill + working capital, ~$40-45B) · WACC ~11.5% · Moat spread +-3.5pp
Financial Snapshot
ticker: OXY step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research
Occidental Petroleum (OXY) — Financial Snapshot
Income Statement Summary
| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY (25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $36.6B | $28.4B | $26.7B | $25.0B | -6% |
| Production (MBOE/d) | 1,180 | 1,236 | 1,330 | 1,380 | +4% |
| Realized Crude Price | $93/bbl | $74/bbl | $75/bbl | $66/bbl | -12% |
| Adj EBITDA | $19.5B | $13.5B | $13.0B | $11.0B | -15% |
| Net Income | $13.3B | $4.7B | $3.6B | $2.5B | -31% |
| Adjusted EPS | $11.41 | $5.18 | $4.18 | $2.40 | -43% |
| Free Cash Flow | $13.6B | $5.5B | $4.9B | $4.1B | -16% |
Note: FY25 adj EPS compressed Q1 $0.87 → Q4 $0.31 as crude price fell $71 → $59/bbl. Production growing post-CrownRock. OxyChem sale (closed Q4 25) = $9.7B cash from Berkshire.
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | ~$11B |
| Free Cash Flow | ~$4.1B |
| Capex | ~$7B |
| Cash & Equivalents | ~$2B + OxyChem $9.7B |
| Total Debt | ~$20.8B (Q3 25) → ~$14B post-OxyChem proceeds |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | ~1.8x → ~1.2x post-OxyChem |
Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~18x | EV/EBITDA: ~6x | FCF Yield: ~9%
- Revenue Growth (TTM): -6% | Op Margin: ~25%
- Dividend Yield: ~2.0% | Dividend: $0.96/share
- Berkshire 28% stake = "Buffett Floor"
Growth Profile
Post-deleveraging (debt <$15B target), free cash flow available for dividends + buybacks + DAC investment. STRATOS DAC commercial validation (target 500K MT/yr) + future plants. Production growth ~3-5%/yr from CrownRock + Permian inventory. Long-term thesis: low-cost Permian production + DAC monetization at scale.
Forward Estimates
- FY 2026: Revenue ~$24B; adj EPS $2.50-3.50 (oil price dependent); FCF $4-5B
- FY 2027: Adj EPS $3.50-4.50 with debt reduction + STRATOS scaling
- Oil price sensitivity: ~$1/bbl WTI = ~$200M annual EBITDA
- $115 bull DCF target vs $55 commodity trap bear case
Deeper Financial Analysis
The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $OXY.
Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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