Progressive Corporation
PGRFinancial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$22.2B
Q1 2026 · +8.7% YoY
TTM ROIC
41%
FY2025 · ROE (Net Income / Avg Equity) — primary capital efficiency metric for P&C insurers, equivalent to ROIC for industrials · WACC ~8.7% · Moat spread +32pp
Financial Snapshot
ticker: PGR step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) — Financial Snapshot
Income Statement Summary
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY (FY25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $62.1B | $75.4B | $87.6B | +16% |
| Net Premiums Written | $61.6B | $74.4B | $83.2B | +12% |
| Net Premiums Earned | $58.7B | $69.4B | $81.7B | +18% |
| Investment Income | $1.9B | $4.0B | $5.5B+ | +37% |
| Combined Ratio | 94.9% | 88.8% | 87.1% | -170 bps |
| Net Income | $3.9B | $8.5B | $11.3B | +34% |
| Diluted EPS | $6.58 | $14.45 | $19.29 | +33% |
Combined Ratio Detail (FY2025)
| Metric | FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Companywide Combined Ratio | 87.1% (vs. 88.8% in FY24) |
| Personal Auto Combined Ratio | 88 (consistently below 90% in 9 of last 10 quarters) |
| Loss & LAE Ratio | ~70% |
| Underwriting Expense Ratio | ~17% |
Market Share & Growth
| Metric | FY2025 |
|---|---|
| Personal Auto Market Share | ~18.6% |
| YoY Market Share Gain | +1.9 pts (no other top 20 company since 1996 has gained >1.5 pts) |
| Personal Lines PIF Growth | +12%+ |
| Commercial Auto Market Share | #1 nationally |
| Snapshot Telematics Users | ~30M+ |
| Robinson (Bundled) Customer Growth | ongoing |
Cash Flow & Capital Allocation (FY2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | ~$15B+ |
| Capital Expenditures | ~$0.5B (asset-light) |
| Free Cash Flow | ~$14B+ |
| Annual Variable Dividend Declared (December 2025) | $13.50/share |
| Regular Quarterly Dividend | $0.10 |
| Annual Regular Dividend | $0.40 |
| Combined Dividend Yield | ~5% (mostly variable annual + small regular) |
| Investment Portfolio (Float) | ~$80B+ |
| Combined Ratio Target | <96% (long-term) |
Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~14x (FY26E EPS ~$20–22) | Price/TBV: ~5x | ROTCE: ~35%+
- Revenue Growth (FY25): +16%
- Net Income Growth (FY25): +34%
- Combined Ratio: 87.1% (industry-leading)
- Combined Annual Dividend Yield: ~5% (variable + regular)
- Net Premiums to Surplus: ~3x (well capitalized)
Growth Profile
FY25 was a record year on multiple metrics:
- Net Income $11.3B (+34%)
- Revenue $87.6B (+16%)
- Combined Ratio 87.1% (best-in-class)
- +1.9 pts personal auto market share gain (best since 1996 for any top-20 company)
- $13.50 variable annual dividend declared December 2025
The structural narrative is operational dominance during the 2024–25 P&C cycle:
- Quick rate increases during 2022–24 inflation cycle vs. competitors' slower responses
- Snapshot telematics + segmentation = best-in-class underwriting
- Direct + agent dual distribution = lowest expense ratio
- Investment income tailwind at $5.5B+ (vs. $1.9B in 2023) on higher rates
2026 setup: industry rate cycle normalization (premium growth slowing from +14% 2024 → +4% 2025 → +1.2% 2026); Progressive's share-gain pace will moderate but margins remain industry-best. The variable dividend model returns excess capital efficiently.
Forward Estimates
FY2026 Consensus:
- Revenue: ~$95–98B (+9–12%)
- EPS: ~$20–22 (flat to +14% — moderating growth from peak)
- Combined Ratio: 88–90 (slight normalization from 87.1% record)
Bull case: Snapshot moat continues to deepen; share gains continue at +1.0+ pts/yr; investment income holds at $5–6B; multiple expands to 17x P/E. Bear case: Industry rate cycle ends; competitors catch up on telematics; combined ratio rises to 92+; multiple compresses to 11x P/E. Consensus targets ~$320–360 vs. trading ~$280–305 (~10–25% implied upside).
Deeper Financial Analysis
The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $PGR.
Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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