Packaging Corporation of America

PKG
Financial Analysis · Updated May 13, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$2.4B
Q1 2026 · +10.6% YoY
TTM ROIC
10.2%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital; NOPAT = Operating Income × (1 – 22% tax rate); Invested Capital = Total Equity + Net Debt · WACC ~7.5% · Moat spread +2.7pp
Margin Profile
Gross 21%
Operating 12.3%
FCF 8.1%
FY2025
Net Debt
$2.7B
Cash $800M · Debt $3.5B · FY2024

Business Overview


ticker: PKG step: 01 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) — Business Overview

Business Description

Packaging Corporation of America (PCA) is the third-largest producer of containerboard and corrugated packaging in the United States, operating a vertically integrated system of paper mills, corrugated products plants, and timberlands. Headquartered in Lake Forest, Illinois, PCA produces the linerboard and medium (containerboard) used to manufacture corrugated boxes, shipping containers, and specialty packaging for retail, e-commerce, food & beverage, and industrial customers. Following the $1.8B acquisition of Greif's containerboard business in September 2025, PCA now operates 10 mills and 91 corrugated products plants, adding 450,000 tons of annual capacity.

Revenue Model

PCA generates revenue through two segments: (1) Packaging (~87% of revenue) — containerboard production sold to internal converting plants and external buyers, plus corrugated boxes and containers sold to end-use customers; (2) Paper (~13% of revenue) — uncoated freesheet paper (office paper, printing paper) sold through wholesale and direct channels. Revenue is driven by containerboard price per ton (cyclical, tracked by industry indices like the PPW benchmark price) and shipment volumes (economically sensitive). Vertically integrated "integration rate" of ~96% means most board produced at mills goes directly to PCA's own box plants.

Products & Services

  • Containerboard — linerboard and corrugated medium; produced at mills in Counce, TN; Filer City, MI; Tomahawk, WI; Jackson, AL; and others
  • Corrugated Boxes & Containers — standard RSC boxes, display containers, die-cut specialty packaging, heavy-duty industrial packaging
  • E-Commerce Packaging — right-sized boxes, frustration-free packaging, retail-ready packaging (fastest-growing end market)
  • Retail/Food Packaging — produce packaging, pizza boxes, freezer-ready corrugated
  • Paper (Office/Printing) — Boise brand uncoated freesheet paper (sold under the Boise brand) — smaller and declining segment

Customer Base & Go-to-Market

PCA sells corrugated products directly to thousands of manufacturers, retailers, e-commerce companies, and food producers across the U.S. End-market exposure includes: consumer products/food (~40%), e-commerce/retail (~30%), industrial/agriculture (~20%), and other (~10%). No single customer is more than a few percent of revenue. The e-commerce secular growth trend is the dominant demand driver — each online shipment requires a corrugated box, and per-item packaging intensity remains high as brands prioritize damage prevention.

Competitive Position

PCA competes primarily against International Paper (#1, ~30% U.S. containerboard share post-DS Smith) and WestRock (#2, now Smurfit Westrock). PCA's competitive advantages include: high integration rate (96% vs. less integrated peers) ensuring cost control and margin stability, mill efficiency (low fiber costs from proximity to timber resources), strong regional customer relationships at the corrugated plant level, and a disciplined capital allocation culture (no deal-of-the-decade acquisitions historically; Greif was strategically targeted). The company is known as one of the best-managed industrial manufacturers in the U.S.

Key Facts

  • Founded: 1959 (as a Tenneco subsidiary; IPO 1999)
  • Headquarters: Lake Forest, Illinois
  • Employees: ~18,000 (post-Greif)
  • Exchange: NYSE
  • Sector / Industry: Materials / Containers & Packaging
  • Market Cap: ~$18–22B

Financial Snapshot


ticker: PKG step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2022 FY2023 FY2024 YoY
Revenue $8.48B $7.80B $8.38B +7.4%
Gross Margin ~24% ~20% ~23%
Operating Margin ~17.5% ~12.4% ~13.5%
Net Income ~$1.0B ~$700M $805M +15%
EPS (diluted) ~$10.70 ~$7.80 $8.93 +14.5%

2023 revenue and earnings declined due to a cyclical containerboard price downturn and demand softness post-COVID inventory destocking. Recovery in 2024 driven by price increases and demand normalization.

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$1.19B
Free Cash Flow ~$522M
Capital Expenditures ~$670M
Cash & Equivalents ~$800M
Total Debt ~$3.5B (elevated post-Greif)

FCF declined in FY2024 vs. FY2023 ($847M) due to higher capex for capacity expansion ahead of the Greif acquisition.

Key Ratios (approximate)

  • P/E: ~19x | EV/EBITDA: ~12x | Dividend Yield: ~1.8%
  • Revenue Growth (FY2024): +7.4% | FCF Margin: ~6%
  • Adjusted EBITDA Margin: ~24% (industry-leading)

Growth Profile

PCA's revenues are cyclically sensitive to containerboard pricing and packaging demand. FY2023 saw a sharp decline from FY2022 peaks as containerboard prices fell 30%+ from cycle highs and customers destocked. FY2024 recovered as prices stabilized and e-commerce demand normalized. The late-2025 Greif containerboard acquisition adds ~$1B in incremental revenue at estimated $50M in annual synergies, pushing TTM revenue toward $9.2B by Q1 2026. The March 2026 $70/ton containerboard price increase is the key FY2026 earnings catalyst.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2025 Revenue: $8.99B (actual, +7.2% YoY)
  • FY2026 Revenue: ~$10B+ (Greif full-year contribution + price increase)
  • March 2026 price increase ($70/ton): Expected to add materially to H2 2026 EBITDA
  • Q1 2026 EPS: $1.92 (down from $2.27 in Q1 2025 — Greif integration costs pressuring near-term margins)
  • Consensus: 11 of 15 analysts rate Buy; strong institutional ownership (88%+)

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $PKG.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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