# Post Holdings Inc. (POST) — Financial Analysis

**Exchange:** NYSE  
**Coverage as of:** 2026-Q2  
**Updated:** 2026-05-28  
**Tier:** Free primer (step 2 of 19)  
**Sibling pages:** /stocks/POST/thesis · /stocks/POST/memo

## Financial Snapshot

---
ticker: POST
step: 04 — Financial Snapshot (incl. Adversarial Sweep)
source: coverage-next-full
generated: 2026-05-28
---

### Step 04 — Financial Snapshot

#### Key Findings
- FY25 financial profile: revenue $8.16B, gross margin 28.7%, operating margin 9.8%, Adj EBITDA margin 18.9%, net income margin 4.1%, CFO $998M (~12% of revenue) [S1][S2].
- **Balance sheet**: $13.5B total assets, $7.4B noncurrent long-term debt, $3.75B equity (FY25 close); net debt ~$7.25B at FY26 Q2 close (Mar 31, 2026) [S1].
- **Cash flow conversion**: CFO of $998M vs Adj EBITDA $1,539M = 65% conversion (gross of cash interest); after cash interest $360M and cash tax ~$100M, FCF before capex ~$540M; less capex ~$370M = **FCF ~$170M FY25**. This is the cleanest "true" cash-return number and it's modest at the equity-cash-flow level.
- **Adversarial sweep clean**: no active short-seller reports of note, no major SEC enforcement, no material litigation reserves, no qualified audit opinion, no restatements in 5 years. Standard CPG litigation routine (Bob Evans dairy class actions, etc.) immaterial.
- **Net mixed for thesis** — financial quality is genuinely solid (clean GAAP, conservative accounting on goodwill carrying values, no impairments in FY25), but the **equity-FCF after interest and capex is modest relative to the $5B equity value** (~3% FCF yield on equity). The leverage is what's compressing the equity FCF, not the underlying operating quality.

#### Implications for Thesis and Valuation
- Adversarial sweep clean → no surprise risk factor unless something new emerges. The "no short-seller controversy" finding is a positive screening signal.
- Equity-level FCF of ~$170M vs $5B market cap = ~3% FCF yield — this is the "show me" gap: at the EV level (FCF before interest $540M / EV $12.25B = 4.4% pre-interest EV FCF yield), POST is cheaper than peers but only modestly so. The compression is partly justified by the structurally negative organic growth shown in Step 03.
- Goodwill + Intangibles together = $4.85B + $3.01B = **$7.86B**, which is **210% of equity book value** ($3.75B). Any material category impairment would meaningfully damage book equity but is unlikely to be cash-impacting.

#### Objective
Apply statement-quality scrutiny to POST's reported financials: confirm clean GAAP, surface accounting choices that matter for forecasting, run an adversarial sweep for hidden litigation / short reports / governance flags, and check the bridge from reported numbers to "look-through" cash quality.

#### Narrative Analysis

##### Income Statement Quality

**Revenue recognition**: standard CPG (point-of-sale to retailer with trade promotion accruals). No subscription revenue, no long-term contract accounting concerns. Foodservice contracts are typically index-priced with quarterly resets — straightforward shipment-based recognition. No revenue-quality flags [S3].

**Gross profit**: FY25 $2,339M (28.7% margin) [S2]. The line includes D&A from manufacturing assets (POST does not separately disclose manufacturing D&A vs total). Trend over time:

| FY | Revenue ($M) | Gross Profit ($M) | GM% |
|----|-------------:|------------------:|----:|
| 2021 | 4,981 | 1,428 | 28.7% |
| 2022 | 5,851 | 1,468 | 25.1% (depressed — input cost spike) |
| 2023 | 6,991 | 1,882 | 26.9% (pet food integration) |
| 2024 | 7,923 | 2,305 | 29.1% (full pet food + pricing recovery) |
| 2025 | 8,158 | 2,339 | 28.7% (8th Ave dilutes some, eggs lift) |

GM has been stable in a 26-29% band post the 2022 input-cost shock — that's a healthy stability signal for a diversified CPG.

**SG&A**: FY25 $1,309M (16.0% of sales) vs $1,330M FY24 (16.8%). SG&A held flat in dollars despite +3% revenue — modest operating leverage [S2]. SG&A includes corporate (~$80-100M est) + segment-level marketing + admin.

**D&A**: FY25 $524M, up from $477M FY24 (+10%). Reflects 8th Avenue PP&E + intangible amortization step-up. Intangible amortization is a meaningful non-cash drag that's masking better cash earnings — this is the standard "amortization of acquired intangibles" CPG-acquirer pattern [S2].

**Adj EBITDA reconciliation**: From operating income $799M, adding D&A $524M and adjustments ~$216M (M&A costs, restructuring, mark-to-market commodity, etc.) → $1,539M Adj EBITDA. The ~$216M of "other adjustments" is large but explained by 8th Avenue close costs, refinancing-related charges, and ongoing integration costs. This is **within typical CPG-acquirer adjustment magnitude** but worth watching — a clean year with no deals should show that number shrinking.

**Interest expense**: FY25 $361M, up from $317M FY24 (+14%). Reflects 8th Avenue debt assumption + March 2026 refi (post-FY25). At ~$7.5B avg LT debt, blended cost of debt ~4.8% — reasonable for non-IG B-rated issuer mix [S2].

**Tax rate**: FY25 effective ~23% (consistent with 21% statutory + state). No tax-rate quality concerns.

##### Balance Sheet Quality

| Line | FY24 ($B) | FY25 ($B) | FY26 Q2 ($B est) |
|------|----------:|----------:|-----------------:|
| Cash | 0.79 | 0.18 | 0.27 |
| Receivables | ~0.85 | ~0.95 | ~0.95 |
| Inventory | ~0.85 | ~0.95 | ~0.95 |
| PP&E net | ~2.1 | ~2.3 | ~2.4 |
| Goodwill | 4.70 | 4.85 | 4.83 |
| Intangibles net | 3.15 | 3.01 | 2.95 |
| Other assets | ~0.5 | ~0.4 | ~0.4 |
| **Total assets** | **12.85** | **13.53** | **13.6 (est)** |
| Current liabilities | ~1.2 | ~1.3 | ~1.4 |
| LT debt noncurrent | 6.81 | 7.42 | ~7.5 |
| Other LT liabilities (deferred tax + pension) | ~0.75 | ~1.05 | ~1.1 |
| **Total liabilities** | **8.76** | **9.78** | **~10.0** |
| **Stockholders' equity** | **4.09** | **3.75** | **~3.65 (est, post-buybacks)** |

Key takeaways:
- **Goodwill + Intangibles = 58% of total assets** — high but typical for an M&A-built CPG. No impairments in FY25 [S1].
- **Equity is shrinking** (FY24 $4.09B → FY25 $3.75B → ~$3.65B Q2 FY26) due to net income < buyback + comprehensive income loss (FX, pension marks). Per-share book value collapsing is masked by share count reduction — buyback per share at ~$100 vs book value per share ~$67 (= $3.65B / 54M shares) is **accretive to per-share book**.
- **Working capital** is unspectacular and stable. Inventory builds are seasonal but manageable.
- **Pension**: small (~$200-300M obligation); minimal cash drag.

##### Cash Flow Quality

| FY | CFO ($M) | Capex (guide-implied) | FCF (CFO − Capex, est) | FCF / Adj EBITDA |
|----|---------:|----------------------:|-----------------------:|-----------------:|
| 2022 | 383 | ~280 | ~100 | ~9% |
| 2023 | 750 | ~300 | ~450 | ~36% |
| 2024 | 932 | ~330 | ~600 | ~43% |
| 2025 | 998 | ~370 | ~628 | ~41% |
| 2026E | 1,050 (est) | 370 mid | 680 (est) | ~43% |

CFO conversion has improved markedly post-2022. FCF / Adj EBITDA in the **40-43% range** is reasonable for a leveraged CPG (interest eats ~25% of EBITDA; capex ~24%; working capital + tax fill the rest). This is the genuine cash-generation engine.

**Cash interest paid** is the key drag: ~$360M/yr at current debt level. Each 50bp rise in blended cost of debt = ~$37M cash interest. Step 06 will model debt maturity stack.

##### Adversarial Research Sweep

| Probe | Finding | Status |
|-------|---------|--------|
| Short-seller reports (Muddy Waters, Hindenburg, etc.) | None active on POST | Clean |
| SEC enforcement actions | None in 5 years | Clean |
| Restatements | None in 5 years | Clean |
| Auditor change | PricewaterhouseCoopers continuous; no recent change | Clean |
| Audit opinion | Unqualified | Clean |
| Material litigation reserves (10-K) | Standard product-liability + class-action routine; no concentrated quantified reserves | Routine |
| Bob Evans-related dairy class actions (legacy) | Settled / immaterial reserves | Closed |
| Cereal slack-fill class actions (industry-wide) | POST has been a defendant in routine slack-fill cases; outcomes immaterial | Routine |
| FTC / DOJ activity on acquisitions | 8th Avenue cleared HSR; Smucker pet-food cleared HSR; no antitrust overhangs | Clean |
| FCPA / sanctions issues | None identified | Clean |
| ISS / proxy advisor red flags | Some concerns historically on Vitale comp magnitude; standard say-on-pay passes | Routine |
| Workplace / labor disputes | Multi-employer pension exposure in legacy units; no major strikes | Routine |
| ESG controversies | No material; standard environmental compliance disclosures | Routine |
| Channel-stuffing or revenue-timing concerns | None identified; cereal & egg shipping cycles are short-cycle and visible quarterly | Clean |
| Acquired-intangibles "earnings quality" criticism | Cited by some commentators (POST adds back amortization in Adj EBITDA — true of all CPG acquirers) | Standard |

**Net adversarial read: clean.** No active short controversies, no material litigation overhang, no governance red flags beyond ordinary-course compensation magnitude. This is a positive screening signal — the bear case has to be argued on operating fundamentals (cereal decline, leverage, HPAI) rather than on "POST is hiding something."

##### Statement-Quality Adjustments

Three places where the "look-through" cash quality differs from reported:

1. **Adj EBITDA add-backs $216M FY25** — most of this is M&A/integration related and should normalize down to $100-150M in a no-deal year. The reported $1,539M Adj EBITDA modestly overstates run-rate cash earnings power by maybe $50-75M for "true" steady state.

2. **Amortization of intangibles in operating income (estimate ~$150-200M of D&A $524M)** — non-cash; "look-through" operating margin is materially higher than the reported 9.8%.

3. **Intangibles amortization vs cash tax shield** — POST gets a cash tax shield from intangibles amortization that doesn't appear in book ETR. Cash taxes have been below book taxes (~$100M cash tax vs $102M book tax FY25 — roughly in line; the shield is largely worked through).

#### Evidence and Sources
- XBRL companyfacts FY2014–FY2025 — full income statement, balance sheet, cash flow [S2].
- FY25 10-K — accounting policies, goodwill/intangibles, debt detail, litigation footnote [S1].
- FY25 + Q2 FY26 press releases — Adj EBITDA reconciliation, segment commentary [S3][S4].

#### Assumption Register Updates

| ID | Update |
|----|--------|
| A20 (new) | FY25 Adj EBITDA reconciling add-backs ~$216M, of which ~$100-150M is steady-state (M&A integration always present); Estimate; basis = decomposition; sensitivity Medium; tag [S3] |
| A21 (new) | FY25 FCF (CFO less capex) ~$628M; Estimate; basis = CFO $998M less capex ~$370M; sensitivity Medium; tag [S2] |
| A22 (new) | Effective tax rate ~23%; Fact (FY25 actual); sensitivity Low; tag [S2] |
| A23 (new) | Blended cost of debt ~4.8%; Estimate (interest $361M / avg LT debt $7.45B); sensitivity Medium; tag [S2] |

#### Tables and Calculations

##### FY25 Look-Through Cash Earnings Bridge

| Item | $M |
|------|---:|
| Adj EBITDA (reported) | 1,539 |
| Less: M&A/integration normalize | ~−75 |
| Steady-state EBITDA | ~1,464 |
| Less: Cash interest | −360 |
| Less: Cash taxes | −100 |
| Less: Maintenance capex (est ~70% of total capex) | −260 |
| **Steady-state equity FCF** | **~744** |
| Add back: M&A capex (growth) | +110 |
| Reported FCF (CFO − Capex) | ~628 |

(Steady-state $744M / 54M diluted shares = ~$13.8/share; vs share price ~$104 = ~13% steady-state FCF yield — actually a credible number once you strip M&A capex and integration costs.)

##### Bridge: Reported FCF → Equity FCF

| | $M |
|--|---:|
| FCF (CFO − capex) FY25 | ~628 |
| Less: Acquisitions in CFI | −920 |
| Net cash deployed (FCF − M&A) | −292 |
| Add: Net new debt issued | +500 (est) |
| Less: Buybacks | ~−710 |
| Less: Other financing/working cap | ~−100 |
| Net cash change | ~−602 |
| Starting cash FY24 | 787 |
| Ending cash FY25 | 177 |
| Reconciled change | −610 ✓ (roughly matches; rounding) |

##### Accounting Quality Scorecard

| Dimension | Grade | Notes |
|-----------|------:|-------|
| Revenue recognition | A | Straightforward CPG |
| Cost / margin reporting | B+ | Some categorization complexity in COGS (D&A blended) |
| Adj EBITDA add-backs | B | Reasonable, recurring in M&A-heavy years; transparent |
| Cash flow statement | A | Clean reconciliation |
| Balance sheet | B+ | Goodwill/intangibles high but typical for serial acquirer |
| Litigation disclosure | A | Standard CPG patterns; no surprises |
| Audit / governance | A | Unqualified, no auditor change, no restatements |
| **Overall accounting quality** | **A−** | Above-average for a leveraged serial-acquirer CPG |

#### Open Questions and Data Gaps

1. Maintenance vs growth capex split — not separately disclosed; estimated 70/30 based on industry norms.
2. Intangible amortization line not broken out separately in P&L — embedded in D&A.
3. Cash tax detail (paid vs current) requires deeper 10-K read; using FY25 effective rate as proxy.

#### Next-Step Dependencies
- Step 05 (Quarterly Momentum) uses the segment-level quarterly profile.
- Step 06 (Balance Sheet & Dilution) deep-dives the $7.5B LT debt stack and shares.
- Step 09 (Returns on Capital) uses the look-through EBITDA + net capital base for ROIC.

#### Source Index

| Source Tag | Document or URL | Section / Page / Slide | Date | Notes |
|------------|----------------|----------------------|------|-------|
| [S1] | POST FY2025 10-K (acc 0001530950-25-000260) | Item 7 + financial statements | 2025-11-21 | Summarized at `POST_financials/sec_filings/10K_FY2025_summary.md` |
| [S2] | XBRL companyfacts CIK 1530950 | All income statement, balance sheet, CF tags | 2026-05-28 | Cached at `POST_financials/xbrl/companyfacts.json` |
| [S3] | POST FY25 Q4 press release + reconciliation | Adj EBITDA reconciliation | 2025-11-21 | Source: postholdings.com |
| [S4] | POST Q2 FY26 press release | Latest period | 2026-05-07 | Source: postholdings.com |

## Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier ($1.00) adds 8 dimensions not included here:

- Revenue Breakdown — segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line margins
- Financial Trends — QoQ momentum, leading indicators, inflection points
- Balance Sheet — debt structure, dilution risk, working capital dynamics
- Capital Allocation — ROIC, buyback cadence, reinvestment efficiency
- Earnings Analysis — beats/misses, guidance vs actuals, transcript highlights
- Competitive Positioning — market share, pricing power, peer benchmarks
- Industry Context — TAM, sector tailwinds/headwinds, regulatory backdrop

**API endpoint:** GET /api/v1/research/POST/fundamental

## Navigation

- Overview: /stocks/POST
- Financials (this page): /stocks/POST/financials
- Thesis: /stocks/POST/thesis
- Investment Memo: /stocks/POST/memo
- Coverage universe: /stocks