# Ross Stores (ROST) — Financial Analysis

**Exchange:** NASDAQ  
**Coverage as of:** 2026-Q2  
**Updated:** 2026-05-10  
**Tier:** Free primer (step 2 of 19)  
**Sibling pages:** /stocks/ROST/thesis · /stocks/ROST/memo

## Financial Snapshot

# Step 8: Revenue Breakdown & Growth Drivers — Ross Stores (ROST)

**Date:** March 6, 2026
**Current Price:** $212.48 | **LTM Revenue:** $22,751M | **Store Count:** 2,267

---

## 8.1 Revenue by Segment / Brand

Ross Stores reports as a **single operating segment** and does not break out revenue between Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS in its SEC filings. However, we can derive estimates from store count data and management commentary.

### Store Count History (Fiscal Year-End)

| Fiscal Year | Ross Dress for Less | dd's DISCOUNTS | Total Stores | Net Adds | States |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2015 (Jan 2016) | 1,274 | 172 | 1,446 | +84 | 34+DC |
| FY2016 (Jan 2017) | 1,340 | 193 | 1,533 | +87 | 36+DC |
| FY2017 (Feb 2018) | 1,409 | 213 | 1,622 | +89 | 37+DC |
| FY2018 (Feb 2019) | 1,480 | 237 | 1,717 | +95 | 38+DC |
| FY2019 (Feb 2020) | 1,546 | 259 | 1,805 | +88 | 39+DC |
| FY2020 (Jan 2021) | 1,585 | 274 | 1,859 | +54 | 40+DC |
| FY2021 (Jan 2022) | 1,628 | 295 | 1,923 | +64 | 40+DC |
| FY2022 (Jan 2023) | 1,693 | 322 | 2,015 | +92 | 40+DC |
| FY2023 (Jan 2024) | 1,764 | 345 | 2,109 | +94 | 43+DC |
| FY2024 (Feb 2025) | 1,831 | 355 | 2,186 | +77 | 43+DC |
| FY2025 (Jan 2026) | 1,904 | 363 | 2,267 | +81 | 44+DC |

**Sources:** Ross Stores FY2015-FY2025 Q4 earnings releases; SEC 10-K filings (CIK 0000745732).

### Estimated Revenue by Brand (FY2025)

dd's DISCOUNTS stores are smaller format (~22,000 sq ft vs. ~25,000-30,000 for Ross) and serve a lower-income demographic with lower price points, implying lower revenue per store.

| Metric | Ross Dress for Less | dd's DISCOUNTS | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Store Count (FY2025) | 1,904 | 363 | 2,267 |
| Store Mix (%) | 84% | 16% | 100% |
| Est. Avg Revenue/Store ($M) | ~$10.5 | ~$6.5 | ~$10.0 |
| Est. Segment Revenue ($M) | ~$19,990 | ~$2,360 | $22,751 |
| Est. Revenue Share (%) | ~88% | ~12% | 100% |

**Key assumptions:** Ross Dress for Less generates ~$10.5M per store (consistent with ~$430/sq ft on ~25,000 sq ft selling area). dd's DISCOUNTS generates ~$6.5M per store given smaller format and lower price points. Management has noted dd's posted "healthy sales gains above Ross" in recent years, suggesting dd's comp growth runs 200-400bps above Ross.

### Revenue and Store Count Growth by Brand

| Period | Ross Store CAGR | dd's Store CAGR | Total Store CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY2015-FY2025 (10 years) | 4.1% | 7.8% | 4.6% |
| FY2019-FY2025 (6 years) | 3.5% | 5.8% | 3.9% |

**dd's growth drivers:** dd's DISCOUNTS is the faster-growing concept, with nearly double the store count CAGR of Ross. Management accelerated dd's openings to 25 planned for FY2026 (vs. ~10 in FY2025), reflecting increased confidence following merchandising improvements and availability of former Rite Aid locations.

---

## 8.2 Revenue by Product Category

Ross discloses product category mix as a percentage of sales in its 10-K filings. Dollar amounts are not reported by category.

### Product Category Sales Mix (FY2024 10-K, Year Ended Feb 1, 2025)

| Category | % of Sales | Est. Revenue ($M) | Trend (5-Year) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home Accents & Bed and Bath | 26% | ~$5,495 | Stable; largest category since ~2020 |
| Ladies | 22% | ~$4,649 | Declining share (was 33% in FY2000) |
| Men's | 16% | ~$3,381 | Steady |
| Accessories, Lingerie, Fine Jewelry & Cosmetics | 15% | ~$3,170 | Cosmetics standout performer |
| Shoes | 12% | ~$2,536 | Growing; best performer in FY2025 |
| Children's | 9% | ~$1,902 | Unchanged at ~9% for decades |
| **Total** | **100%** | **$21,133** | |

### Product Category Mix Through 9 Months of FY2025 (Nov 1, 2025)

| Category | % of Sales | Direction vs. FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Home Accents & Bed and Bath | 25% | -1pp (tariff headwinds) |
| Ladies | 23% | +1pp (juniors strong) |
| Men's | 16% | Flat |
| Accessories, Lingerie, Fine Jewelry & Cosmetics | 14-15% | Flat |
| Shoes | 13% | +1pp (best performer) |
| Children's | 9% | Flat |

### Category Mix Evolution — 20-Year Shift

| Category | FY2000 | FY2024 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ladies | 33% | 22% | -11pp (significant decline) |
| Home Accents & Bed/Bath | 17% | 26% | +9pp (now #1 category) |
| Men's | 21% | 16% | -5pp |
| Accessories/Jewelry/Cosmetics | 12% | 15% | +3pp |
| Children's | 9% | 9% | Flat |
| Shoes | 8% | 12% | +4pp |

**Key insight:** Home has grown from ~17% to ~26% of sales over two decades — a major strategic diversification that reduces dependence on apparel cycles.

### Growth Drivers & Risks by Category

| Category | Growth Drivers | Risks |
|---|---|---|
| **Home (26%)** | Department store closures (Bed Bath liquidation); trade-down from HomeGoods/Pottery Barn; broad assortment | Tariff exposure (imported goods); Amazon competition; bulky items harder to source opportunistically |
| **Ladies (22%)** | Juniors segment "particularly strong"; trade-down from Nordstrom/Macy's; trend-driven purchases | Fashion risk (wrong trends = markdowns); Amazon apparel growth; fast fashion (Shein, Temu) competition |
| **Men's (16%)** | Steady demand; branded basics; less fashion risk than ladies | Slower growth category; limited differentiation vs. TJX/BURL |
| **Accessories/Cosmetics (15%)** | Cosmetics is a standout performer; high-margin impulse buys; fine jewelry draws affluent trade-down | Counterfeiting/shrinkage risk on small high-value items; Ulta/Sephora competition in cosmetics |
| **Shoes (12%)** | Fastest-growing category; branded athletic shoes at deep discounts; DSW/Famous Footwear closures | Sizing/returns complexity; Nike DTC shift could limit off-price supply |
| **Children's (9%)** | Stable, recession-resistant (kids outgrow clothes); repeat purchase cycle | Stagnant share for 20+ years; limited growth catalyst |

**FY2025 Q4 Earnings Call Highlights:**
- **Best performers:** Shoes and Cosmetics
- **Ladies:** Continued strength; juniors "particularly strong"
- **Home:** "Sequential improvement" after tariff headwinds; dd's had "vibrant home" business
- **Outerwear:** "Bigger business for us this quarter than it has been"

---

## 8.3 Revenue by Geography

Ross Stores operates **exclusively in the United States** (plus Guam and Puerto Rico). There are no international operations.

### Store Concentration by State (FY2024-FY2025 Data)

| Rank | State | Approx. Stores | % of Total | Pop. per Store |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | California | ~339 | ~19% | ~116,600 |
| 2 | Texas | ~226 | ~13% | ~128,300 |
| 3 | Florida | ~202 | ~11% | ~109,400 |
| 4 | Illinois | ~85 | ~5% | — |
| 5 | Arizona | ~69 | ~4% | — |
| 6 | Georgia | ~60 | ~3% | — |
| 7 | Pennsylvania | ~52 | ~3% | — |
| 8 | North Carolina | ~49 | ~3% | — |
| 9 | Washington | ~48 | ~3% | — |
| 10 | Virginia | ~42 | ~2% | — |
| | All Other (34 states) | ~1,095 | ~35% | — |
| | **Total** | **~2,267** | **100%** | |

**Top 3 states (CA, TX, FL) = ~43% of all stores.** This geographic concentration is a key risk factor — a state-level recession, natural disaster, or regulatory change in any of these three states would disproportionately impact results.

### Geographic Growth Drivers & Risks

| Region | % of Stores | Growth Driver | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| **Sun Belt (CA, TX, FL, AZ, GA)** | ~50% | Population growth; core market; strong brand recognition | Over-penetration; natural disaster exposure; CA regulatory cost |
| **Midwest (IL, OH, MI, IN)** | ~10% | Underpenetrated; new market entry; strong initial productivity | Weaker population growth; less brand awareness; weather risk |
| **Northeast (PA, NY, NJ, CT)** | ~8% | High population density; affluent trade-down customers; new NY Metro stores "very strong" | High real estate costs; union labor markets; entrenched TJX presence |
| **Southeast (NC, VA, TN, SC)** | ~12% | Growing populations; affordable real estate; favorable demographics | Increasing competition from BURL expansion |
| **West/Mountain (WA, OR, CO, NV)** | ~10% | Established markets; steady performance | Limited runway for additional stores |

### Recent Expansion Milestones
- **FY2025:** First stores in New York Metro area and Puerto Rico — "very strong" initial performance
- **FY2024-25:** Expanded into Michigan (new market)
- **FY2026 plan:** 110 new stores (85 Ross + 25 dd's), with emphasis on Midwest and Northeast

**Geographic concentration risk is partially mitigated** by the diversification trend — Ross has gone from 34 states to 44 states over 10 years, and the top 3 state share has been gradually declining as newer markets grow faster.

---

## 8.4 Customer Demographics

### Target Customer Profile

| Attribute | Ross Dress for Less | dd's DISCOUNTS |
|---|---|---|
| **Primary Age** | 25-54 years old | 25-44 years old |
| **Growing Cohort** | 18-34 (juniors, young men's) | Similar |
| **Gender** | ~75-80% female | ~80% female |
| **Household Income** | $35,000-$75,000 | $25,000-$50,000 |
| **Education** | Broad; value-conscious across income | Skews toward non-college |
| **Visit Frequency** | 2-3x per month | 2-3x per month |
| **Average Basket** | ~$30-35 per transaction | ~$25-28 (est.) |
| **Average Item Price** | ~$10 | ~$8 (est.) |

### Customer Trends (FY2025)
- Growth "broad-based across income demographics and age demographics, including 18- to 34-year-old customers"
- Comp growth "driven mainly by an increase in transactions and customers with a modest increase in basket"
- Trade-down from department stores continues — TJX reports "record influxes of high-income shoppers"
- 87% of financially stressed shoppers plan to use discount stores (Bank of America survey)

---

## 8.5 Store Economics

### Revenue per Store — 10-Year History

| Fiscal Year | Revenue ($B) | Avg Store Count* | Rev/Store ($M) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2015 | $11.94 | 1,404 | $8.5 | — |
| FY2016 | $12.87 | 1,490 | $8.6 | +1.8% |
| FY2017 | $14.13 | 1,578 | $9.0 | +3.7% |
| FY2018 | $15.00 | 1,670 | $9.0 | 0.0% |
| FY2019 | $16.04 | 1,761 | $9.1 | +1.1% |
| FY2020 | $12.53 | 1,832 | $6.8 | -25.3% (COVID) |
| FY2021 | $18.92 | 1,891 | $10.0 | +47.1% (recovery) |
| FY2022 | $18.70 | 1,969 | $9.5 | -5.0% |
| FY2023 | $20.38 | 2,062 | $9.9 | +4.2% |
| FY2024 | $21.10 | 2,148 | $9.8 | -0.5% |
| FY2025 | $22.80 | 2,227 | $10.2 | +4.1% |

*Avg store count = (beginning + ending) / 2*

**10-Year Rev/Store CAGR: 2.0%** ($8.5M → $10.2M). Post-recovery, revenue per store exceeded pre-COVID levels by ~12%.

### Unit Economics Summary

| Metric | Ross Dress for Less | dd's DISCOUNTS | Blended |
|---|---|---|---|
| Avg Gross Square Footage | ~28,000 sq ft | ~22,000 sq ft | ~27,000 sq ft |
| Avg Selling Square Footage | ~23,000-25,000 sq ft | ~18,000 sq ft (est.) | ~22,000-24,000 sq ft |
| FY2025 Revenue per Store ($M) | ~$10.5 (est.) | ~$6.5 (est.) | ~$10.0 |
| Revenue per Selling Sq Ft | ~$420-$450 (est.) | ~$360 (est.) | ~$410-$430 |
| Est. 4-Wall EBITDA Margin | 20-25% | 15-20% (est.) | 18-23% |
| New Store Productivity (Yr 1) | 70-75% of mature store | 70-75% of mature store | — |
| Time to Maturity | 3-5 years | 3-5 years | — |

### New Store Economics
- FY2026 plan: 110 new stores (85 Ross + 25 dd's) = ~5% unit growth
- Management guidance: "70% to 75% new store productivity" in Year 1
- FY2025 described as "one of our best years in a while" for new store performance
- New stores in Northeast and Midwest markets showing "very strong" productivity, validating the expansion thesis

---

## 8.6 Growth Drivers — Detailed Analysis

### A. Store Expansion Runway (Primary Driver — ~65% of Revenue Growth)

| Metric | Current (FY2025) | Long-Term Target | Remaining | Growth (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross Dress for Less | 1,904 | 2,900 | 996 | +52% |
| dd's DISCOUNTS | 363 | 700 | 337 | +93% |
| **Total** | **2,267** | **3,600** | **1,333** | **+59%** |

At the current pace of ~90-110 new stores/year, the runway provides **12-15 years of unit growth**. FY2026 guidance of 110 new stores represents an acceleration to ~5% unit growth (from ~3.7% in FY2025).

**Risks to store expansion:**
- Diminishing returns as newer markets may have lower population density and weaker brand recognition
- Competition for prime retail real estate from Burlington (100+ stores/yr), TJX (~90/yr), and Nordstrom Rack
- Construction cost inflation and permitting delays
- Cannibalization of existing stores as density increases in mature markets

### B. Comparable Store Sales (Secondary Driver — ~35% of Revenue Growth)

| Period | Average Annual Comp | Primary Driver |
|---|---|---|
| FY2015-FY2019 (Pre-COVID) | +3.8% | Traffic + modest ticket growth |
| FY2022-FY2025 (Post-COVID) | +2.3% (incl. FY2022 -4%) | Transaction recovery + trade-down |
| FY2023-FY2025 (Normalized) | +4.3% | Strong execution + consumer shift |
| FY2026 Guidance | +3% to +4% | Conservative (historical beat by ~240bps) |

**Comp growth decomposition:** Management stated FY2025 comp growth was "driven mainly by an increase in transactions and customers with a modest increase in basket" — i.e., traffic-led, which is healthier than ticket-led growth.

**Risks to comp growth:**
- Recession could reduce even trade-down spending if consumers eliminate discretionary purchases entirely
- Competition from TJX, Burlington, and digital off-price (ThredUp, Poshmark) could cap comp gains
- Post-COVID consumer behavior still normalizing — elevated FY2025 comps may not be sustainable

### C. dd's DISCOUNTS Acceleration

dd's is the higher-growth concept with the most runway:
- Long-term target: 700 stores (vs. 363 today) = 93% growth potential
- Currently in only 22 states — significant white space
- Benefiting from Rite Aid and other retail bankruptcies freeing real estate
- FY2026 plan accelerates dd's openings to 25 (from ~10 in FY2025)
- Comps have consistently outperformed Ross Dress for Less by 200-400bps
- Targets lower-income demographic that is most responsive to trade-down trends

**Risks to dd's growth:**
- Lower-income customer is most vulnerable to macro downturns
- Smaller store format limits category assortment vs. Ross
- Dollar stores (Dollar General, Dollar Tree) compete for the same demographic
- Lower revenue per store means dd's stores contribute less to total revenue per incremental unit

### D. New Market Entry

| Market | Status | Opportunity |
|---|---|---|
| New York Metro | Entered FY2025; "very strong" | Large, high-density market; premium trade-down |
| Puerto Rico | Entered FY2025 | Underserved off-price market |
| Michigan | Entered FY2024-25 | Large Midwest state; underpenetrated |
| Upper Midwest (WI, MN, IA) | Not yet entered | Population of ~15M with few off-price options |
| New England (CT, MA, NH, VT, ME) | Limited presence | ~15M population; high-income trade-down potential |

### E. Structural / Secular Tailwinds

1. **Department store closures:** Macy's closing 150 stores by FY2026; Kohl's closing 27; Forever 21 and Joann liquidated — frees both inventory and customers
2. **Tariff disruption:** Creates excess branded inventory that feeds directly into off-price buying channels
3. **Consumer trade-down:** 87% of financially stressed shoppers plan to use discount stores (BofA)
4. **Generational shift:** Gen Z and millennials embrace off-price as "smart shopping" — cultural tailwind
5. **Real estate availability:** Retail bankruptcies (Rite Aid, Bed Bath, etc.) provide prime locations at favorable rents

---

## 8.7 CAGR Calculations

### Total Revenue CAGR

| Period | Start Revenue | End Revenue | Years | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2015 - FY2025 | $11,940M | $22,751M | 10 | **6.7%** |
| FY2019 - FY2025 | $16,039M | $22,751M | 6 | **6.0%** |
| FY2014 - FY2025 | $11,042M | $22,751M | 11 | **6.8%** |

### Store Count CAGR

| Period | Start | End | Years | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2015 - FY2025 (Total) | 1,446 | 2,267 | 10 | **4.6%** |
| FY2015 - FY2025 (Ross only) | 1,274 | 1,904 | 10 | **4.1%** |
| FY2015 - FY2025 (dd's only) | 172 | 363 | 10 | **7.8%** |

### Revenue per Store CAGR

| Period | Start Rev/Store | End Rev/Store | Years | CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2015 - FY2025 | $8.5M | $10.2M | 10 | **2.0%** |
| FY2019 - FY2025 | $9.1M | $10.2M | 6 | **2.0%** |

### Revenue Growth Decomposition

| Driver | Contribution to Revenue CAGR | 10-Year CAGR |
|---|---|---|
| Store count growth | ~65% | 4.6% |
| Revenue per store growth (comp + mix) | ~35% | 2.0% |
| **Total revenue growth** | **100%** | **6.7%** |

This confirms Ross Stores' growth is predominantly **unit-driven** (~65% from new stores) with a meaningful contribution from same-store productivity improvements (~35%). This is a healthy, repeatable growth profile that is less dependent on pricing power and more on disciplined execution of a proven store model.

### Forward Revenue CAGR Implied by DCF Assumptions

| Scenario | FY2025 Revenue | FY2035 Revenue (Yr 10) | Implied 10-Yr CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | $22,751M | $33,182M | 3.8% |
| Base | $22,751M | $40,527M | 5.9% |
| Growth-Oriented | $22,751M | $44,097M | 6.8% |
| Extreme Bear | $22,751M | $33,182M | 3.8% |

The Base Case forward CAGR of 5.9% is modestly below the historical 10-year CAGR of 6.7%, reflecting expected deceleration as the store base grows and comp growth normalizes. This appears reasonable given the 1,333-store expansion runway and consistent 3-5% comp growth history.

---

## 8.8 Summary of Key Findings

1. **Single segment reporting** — Ross does not break out Ross vs. dd's revenue. Estimated split: Ross Dress for Less ~88% ($20.0B), dd's DISCOUNTS ~12% ($2.4B).

2. **Home is now the #1 category** at 25-26% of sales, having surpassed Ladies (22-23%) over the past two decades. This diversification reduces apparel cycle dependence.

3. **Geographic concentration risk** — Top 3 states (CA, TX, FL) represent ~43% of stores. However, expansion into Midwest and Northeast is diluting this concentration, and new markets are showing "very strong" productivity.

4. **Enormous store expansion runway** — 1,333 stores remaining to reach the 3,600 target (+59% growth), providing 12-15 years of unit growth at the current ~100 stores/year pace.

5. **10-year revenue CAGR of 6.7%**, driven ~65% by new stores and ~35% by same-store productivity. The 6-year CAGR (FY2019-FY2025) is 6.0%, reflecting COVID disruption.

6. **dd's DISCOUNTS is the higher-growth concept** — 7.8% store count CAGR (vs. 4.1% for Ross) with comp growth consistently 200-400bps above the larger banner. FY2026 accelerates dd's openings to 25.

7. **Store economics are strong** — ~$10M revenue per store, ~$420-450 revenue per selling sq ft, estimated 20-25% 4-wall EBITDA margins. New stores achieve 70-75% productivity in Year 1.

8. **Forward growth is well-supported** — The Base Case DCF's 5.9% revenue CAGR is conservative relative to the historical 6.7%, and the store expansion runway, secular off-price tailwinds, and consistent comp growth provide high visibility.

---

*Step 8 Complete. Ross Stores' revenue growth is driven by a predictable, unit-economics-driven model: ~90-110 new stores per year contributing ~65% of growth, plus 3-5% annual comp sales providing the remaining ~35%. The company has 1,333 stores of expansion runway to its 3,600-store target, providing 12-15 years of visible organic growth. dd's DISCOUNTS is emerging as the higher-growth concept (93% store growth remaining vs. 52% for Ross). Key risks are geographic concentration (43% in 3 states), margin pressure from wages/shrinkage, and increasing competition from TJX, Burlington, and Nordstrom Rack.*

## Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier ($1.00) adds 8 dimensions not included here:

- Revenue Breakdown — segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line margins
- Financial Trends — QoQ momentum, leading indicators, inflection points
- Balance Sheet — debt structure, dilution risk, working capital dynamics
- Capital Allocation — ROIC, buyback cadence, reinvestment efficiency
- Earnings Analysis — beats/misses, guidance vs actuals, transcript highlights
- Competitive Positioning — market share, pricing power, peer benchmarks
- Industry Context — TAM, sector tailwinds/headwinds, regulatory backdrop

**API endpoint:** GET /api/v1/research/ROST/fundamental

## Navigation

- Overview: /stocks/ROST
- Financials (this page): /stocks/ROST/financials
- Thesis: /stocks/ROST/thesis
- Investment Memo: /stocks/ROST/memo
- Coverage universe: /stocks