# Saia Inc. (SAIA) — Financial Analysis

**Exchange:** NASDAQ  
**Coverage as of:** 2026-Q2  
**Updated:** 2026-05-29  
**Tier:** Free primer (step 2 of 19)  
**Sibling pages:** /stocks/SAIA/thesis · /stocks/SAIA/memo

## Financial Snapshot

---
source: coverage-next-full
ticker: SAIA
step: "04"
title: Financial Snapshot
created: 2026-05-29
---

### Step 04 — Financial Snapshot

#### Three-Year P&L Summary

| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| Revenue | $3,175M | $3,060M | $3,172M |
| Operating Expenses | $2,694M | $2,653M | $2,706M |
| Operating Income | $481M | $407M | $466M |
| Operating Ratio (OR) | 84.8% | 86.7% | 85.3% |
| EBITDA (approx.) | $660M | $590M | $665M |
| Pre-tax Income | $476M | $403M | $463M |
| Net Income | $360M | $302M | $350M |
| Diluted EPS | $13.61 | $11.47 | $13.36 |
| Diluted Shares (M) | 26.5 | 26.3 | 26.2 |

*Note: Figures represent analyst reconstructions from SEC filings and earnings releases; minor rounding differences from reported figures may apply.*

#### Operating Ratio — The North Star Metric

The Operating Ratio (operating expenses ÷ revenue) is the defining efficiency metric for LTL carriers. **Lower = better.**

| Company | OR Range (2024) | Notes |
|---------|-----------------|-------|
| ODFL | ~73-76% | Best-in-class; industry benchmark |
| FedEx Freight | ~80-83% | Second best; improvement in progress |
| XPO (LTL NA) | ~85-87% | Improving; ambitious targets |
| **Saia** | **~85-87%** | Improvement trajectory; new terminals dilutive |
| ABF/ArcBest | ~88-90% | Regional; less network density |

Saia's OR improvement from ~90%+ in 2017-2018 to the mid-80% range today represents significant structural improvement. The path to an ODFL-like OR (sub-80%) requires:
1. Terminal maturation (filling new terminals with freight density)
2. Continued yield improvement (pricing outpaces cost inflation)
3. Labor productivity gains (revenue per employee growth)
4. Network optimization (eliminating unnecessary freight touches/relays)

#### Key Margin Metrics

| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| Gross Operating Margin | 15.2% | 13.3% | 14.7% |
| Operating Margin | 15.2% | 13.3% | 14.7% |
| Net Margin | 11.3% | 9.9% | 11.0% |
| EBITDA Margin | ~20.8% | ~19.3% | ~21.0% |

#### Operating Expense Structure

LTL cost structure is relatively fixed in the near term (terminal leases/ownership, driver wages, equipment depreciation) with variable components (fuel, owner-operators, overtime).

| Cost Category | % of Revenue (approx.) | Trend |
|---------------|------------------------|-------|
| Salaries, wages, benefits | ~48-50% | Moderate inflation; driver wages up 5-8%/yr |
| Purchased transportation | ~5-7% | Variable; interline costs declining as network expands |
| Fuel | ~8-10% | Diesel price dependent; partially hedged via surcharge |
| Depreciation & amortization | ~5-6% | Rising as CapEx compounds; fleet and terminal depreciation |
| Operating supplies & claims | ~3-4% | Claims ratio improving |
| Other (insurance, G&A) | ~10-12% | Relatively fixed |

##### Labor Cost Deep Dive

Labor represents ~50% of Saia's revenue — the largest single cost category. Key dynamics:

- **Driver wages**: Saia has been raising driver compensation 5-8% annually to compete for talent in a tight market. Non-union structure provides flexibility vs. ABF (Teamsters union) but requires competitive wages to retain
- **Driver count**: ~9,500+ CDL drivers; driver availability has normalized post-2021 shortage but competition for qualified drivers remains structural
- **Dock workers and terminal staff**: Growing proportionally with terminal count expansion
- **Benefits**: Health insurance, 401k matching; benefit costs rising ~4-6% annually

##### Fuel Dynamics

Diesel is a significant variable cost. Saia mitigates with:
- Fuel surcharge pass-through (standard industry practice; linked to DOE weekly diesel price)
- Fuel-efficient tractor specifications (aerodynamic trailers, idle reduction technology)
- Route optimization reducing empty miles

Net fuel cost exposure (after surcharge recovery) is approximately 1-2% of revenue.

#### Revenue Quality Assessment

- **Organic only**: All revenue growth is organic — no acquisitions, no financial engineering
- **Recurring**: LTL freight is highly recurring (B2B industrial/retail shippers ship regularly)
- **Pricing transparency**: Rev/CWT published quarterly; no "channel fill" or one-time dynamics
- **Cyclical element**: Industrial production drives ~60-70% of LTL volumes; recession is a real risk

#### Earnings Power Analysis

Normalizing for cycle and terminal maturation:

| Scenario | Revenue | OR | Operating Income | EPS (est.) |
|----------|---------|-----|-----------------|-----------|
| Current (2024 actual) | $3.17B | 85.3% | $466M | ~$13.36 |
| Mid-cycle recovery (2026E) | $3.5-3.7B | 84.0% | $560-592M | ~$18-20 |
| Bull (network mature, ODFL-path) | $4.0-4.5B | 80-82% | $720-810M | ~$26-30 |
| Bear (recession, terminal drag) | $2.8-3.0B | 87-89% | $330-390M | ~$10-13 |

#### Cash Flow Profile

| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|
| Operating Cash Flow | ~$530M | ~$480M | ~$540M |
| Capital Expenditures | ~$(550)M | ~$(600)M | ~$(560)M |
| Free Cash Flow | ~$(20)M | ~$(120)M | ~$(20)M |
| Net Debt / Cash | Net cash slight | Net cash slight | Net cash slight |

The negative free cash flow during this expansion phase is intentional and funded by operating cash flow + minimal debt drawdowns. This is not distress — it is the capital deployment phase of a network-building cycle. ODFL ran similar FCF dynamics during its 2000-2015 expansion.

#### Key Financial Ratios

| Ratio | Value (FY2024) | Industry Context |
|-------|----------------|-----------------|
| P/E (trailing) | ~22-28x | Slight premium; growth story |
| EV/EBITDA | ~12-15x | In line with ODFL at earlier stage |
| Price/Sales | ~2.5-3.0x | Growing toward ODFL's ~4-5x |
| Debt/EBITDA | <0.5x | Essentially unlevered |
| ROIC | ~15-18% | Improving; network maturation = ROIC inflection |

## Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier ($1.00) adds 8 dimensions not included here:

- Revenue Breakdown — segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line margins
- Financial Trends — QoQ momentum, leading indicators, inflection points
- Balance Sheet — debt structure, dilution risk, working capital dynamics
- Capital Allocation — ROIC, buyback cadence, reinvestment efficiency
- Earnings Analysis — beats/misses, guidance vs actuals, transcript highlights
- Competitive Positioning — market share, pricing power, peer benchmarks
- Industry Context — TAM, sector tailwinds/headwinds, regulatory backdrop

**API endpoint:** GET /api/v1/research/SAIA/fundamental

## Navigation

- Overview: /stocks/SAIA
- Financials (this page): /stocks/SAIA/financials
- Thesis: /stocks/SAIA/thesis
- Investment Memo: /stocks/SAIA/memo
- Coverage universe: /stocks