United Parcel Service Inc.

UPS
Financial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$21.2B
Q1 2026 · -1.6% YoY
TTM ROIC
11.5%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (NOPAT = Op Income × (1 - 22% tax rate); Invested Capital = Total Assets - est. non-interest-bearing current liabilities - Cash) · WACC ~9% · Moat spread +2.5pp

Financial Snapshot


ticker: UPS step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research

United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) — Financial Snapshot

Income Statement Summary

Metric FY2023 FY2024 FY2025 YoY
Revenue $91.0B $91.1B $89.0B -2%
Adj. Operating Margin 10.9% 9.8% 10.8% +100bps
Adj. Operating Profit $9.9B $8.9B $9.6B +8%
Adj. EPS $8.78 $7.42 $7.07 -5%
Free Cash Flow $5.3B $6.3B $5.5B -13%

Segment Performance (FY2025)

Segment Revenue Op Margin
U.S. Domestic Package ~$55B ~10%
International Package ~$17B ~17-18%
Supply Chain Solutions ~$17B ~9-10%

Q1 2026 Highlights

Metric Q1 2026 YoY
Total Revenue flat
U.S. Domestic Revenue -2.3% volume decline, price +6.5%
International Revenue +3.8% price +10.7%
Supply Chain Revenue -6.5% Mail Innovations drag
EPS beat estimates transition costs pressure margin

Amazon "Glide-Down"

Metric Value
Amazon FY24 % of revenue 11.8%
Volume reduction by June 2026 50%+
Daily volume removed ~2M pieces per day
Revenue exit (cumulative) $5B

Network of the Future Progress

Metric Status
Volume through automated facilities (target June 2026) 68%
Per-piece cost reduction in automated facilities -28%
Operations closed FY25 195
Buildings closed FY25 93
Labor hours removed FY25 26.9M
Operational role cuts FY25 48K
Operational role cuts planned FY26 30K additional
Additional facilities closing by June 2026 24
Total savings FY25 $3.5B

Andlauer Acquisition (November 2025)

Metric Value
Deal value $1.6B
Strategic target $20B healthcare revenue by late 2026

Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)

Metric Value
Operating Cash Flow ~$10B
Capital Expenditures ~$4.0B
Free Cash Flow $5.5B
Cash & Equivalents ~$6B
Total Debt ~$22B
Net Debt/EBITDA ~1.5x

Key Ratios (approximate, May 2026)

  • P/E (forward): ~13x | EV/EBITDA: ~9x | Dividend Yield: ~7.3%
  • LTM Payout Ratio | 96.9% (tight — bear concern)
  • FCF Yield: ~7%

Growth Profile

2026 is the "trough year" per CEO Tomé. EPS $7.07 (FY25) represents post-Amazon-glide-down baseline. Bull case: June 2026 inflection, then EPS growth in 2027+ as automated network + higher-margin mix kicks in. Andlauer + UPS Healthcare target $20B healthcare revenue. International margins (~17-18%) lead segment profitability.

Forward Estimates

  • FY2026E Revenue: ~$88-90B (flat — Amazon glide-down mostly absorbed)
  • FY2026E Adj EPS: ~$7.00-7.20 (trough)
  • FY2027E EPS: ~$8.50 (+20% recovery)
  • FY2028E EPS: ~$10 (network + healthcare scale)
  • 65% Long-term Upside Target (TIKR): $130+

Capital Return

  • Dividend $6.56 annual (~$5.6B paid) — 7.3% yield
  • 25+ consecutive years of dividend growth (no cut)
  • Buybacks paused for cost focus
  • Total return: heavily dividend-driven

Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $UPS.

Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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