United Parcel Service Inc.
UPSFinancial Analysis · Updated May 12, 2026 · Coverage 2026-Q2
Latest Q Revenue
$21.2B
Q1 2026 · -1.6% YoY
TTM ROIC
11.5%
FY2025 · NOPAT / Invested Capital (NOPAT = Op Income × (1 - 22% tax rate); Invested Capital = Total Assets - est. non-interest-bearing current liabilities - Cash) · WACC ~9% · Moat spread +2.5pp
Financial Snapshot
ticker: UPS step: 04 generated: 2026-05-12 source: quick-research
United Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) — Financial Snapshot
Income Statement Summary
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 | FY2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $91.0B | $91.1B | $89.0B | -2% |
| Adj. Operating Margin | 10.9% | 9.8% | 10.8% | +100bps |
| Adj. Operating Profit | $9.9B | $8.9B | $9.6B | +8% |
| Adj. EPS | $8.78 | $7.42 | $7.07 | -5% |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.3B | $6.3B | $5.5B | -13% |
Segment Performance (FY2025)
| Segment | Revenue | Op Margin |
|---|---|---|
| U.S. Domestic Package | ~$55B | ~10% |
| International Package | ~$17B | ~17-18% |
| Supply Chain Solutions | ~$17B | ~9-10% |
Q1 2026 Highlights
| Metric | Q1 2026 | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | flat | |
| U.S. Domestic Revenue | -2.3% | volume decline, price +6.5% |
| International Revenue | +3.8% | price +10.7% |
| Supply Chain Revenue | -6.5% | Mail Innovations drag |
| EPS | beat estimates | transition costs pressure margin |
Amazon "Glide-Down"
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Amazon FY24 % of revenue | 11.8% |
| Volume reduction by June 2026 | 50%+ |
| Daily volume removed | ~2M pieces per day |
| Revenue exit (cumulative) | $5B |
Network of the Future Progress
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Volume through automated facilities (target June 2026) | 68% |
| Per-piece cost reduction in automated facilities | -28% |
| Operations closed FY25 | 195 |
| Buildings closed FY25 | 93 |
| Labor hours removed FY25 | 26.9M |
| Operational role cuts FY25 | 48K |
| Operational role cuts planned FY26 | 30K additional |
| Additional facilities closing by June 2026 | 24 |
| Total savings FY25 | $3.5B |
Andlauer Acquisition (November 2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Deal value | $1.6B |
| Strategic target | $20B healthcare revenue by late 2026 |
Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2025)
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | ~$10B |
| Capital Expenditures | ~$4.0B |
| Free Cash Flow | $5.5B |
| Cash & Equivalents | ~$6B |
| Total Debt | ~$22B |
| Net Debt/EBITDA | ~1.5x |
Key Ratios (approximate, May 2026)
- P/E (forward): ~13x | EV/EBITDA: ~9x | Dividend Yield: ~7.3%
- LTM Payout Ratio | 96.9% (tight — bear concern)
- FCF Yield: ~7%
Growth Profile
2026 is the "trough year" per CEO Tomé. EPS $7.07 (FY25) represents post-Amazon-glide-down baseline. Bull case: June 2026 inflection, then EPS growth in 2027+ as automated network + higher-margin mix kicks in. Andlauer + UPS Healthcare target $20B healthcare revenue. International margins (~17-18%) lead segment profitability.
Forward Estimates
- FY2026E Revenue: ~$88-90B (flat — Amazon glide-down mostly absorbed)
- FY2026E Adj EPS: ~$7.00-7.20 (trough)
- FY2027E EPS: ~$8.50 (+20% recovery)
- FY2028E EPS: ~$10 (network + healthcare scale)
- 65% Long-term Upside Target (TIKR): $130+
Capital Return
- Dividend $6.56 annual (~$5.6B paid) — 7.3% yield
- 25+ consecutive years of dividend growth (no cut)
- Buybacks paused for cost focus
- Total return: heavily dividend-driven
Deeper Financial Analysis
The fundamental tier adds 9 additional research dimensions for $UPS.
Revenue Breakdown
Segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line contribution margins, and cohort dynamics.
Financial Trends
Quarter-over-quarter momentum, leading indicators, and inflection point analysis.
Balance Sheet
Debt structure, liquidity runway, dilution risk, and working capital dynamics.
Capital Allocation
Buyback cadence, M&A appetite, dividend policy, and reinvestment priorities.
Returns on Capital (ROIC)
Multi-year ROIC vs. WACC, marginal returns on reinvestment, sales-to-invested-capital efficiency, and moat spread.
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