# Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) — Financial Analysis

**Exchange:** NASDAQ  
**Coverage as of:** 2026-Q2  
**Updated:** 2026-05-18  
**Tier:** Free primer (step 2 of 19)  
**Sibling pages:** /stocks/UPST/thesis · /stocks/UPST/memo

## Financial Snapshot

---
ticker: UPST
step: 04
generated: 2026-05-13
source: quick-research
---

### Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) — Financial Snapshot

#### Income Statement Summary

| Metric | FY2022 | FY2023 | FY2024 | YoY |
|--------|--------|--------|--------|-----|
| Revenue | ~$849M | ~$514M | $637M | +24% |
| Contribution Margin | ~60% | ~55% | ~61% | recovering |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin | ~10% | ~-10% | ~2% | recovering |
| GAAP Net Income | ~-$110M | ~-$240M | ~-$129M | losses narrowing |
| Basic EPS | negative | negative | ~-$1.40 | |

*FY2025: Revenue $1.04B (+64% YoY); fee revenue $950M (beat guidance of $920M); loan originations $11B (+86%, 1.5M loans); adjusted EBITDA $230M (22% margin, up 20x from $11M in FY2024); GAAP net income $54M — first full-year GAAP profitability. Automation rate 91%; conversion rate 19.4%. Auto and HELOC originations each grew 5x. Q1 2026: returned to GAAP loss (-$0.07/share), down 19.8% on earnings day — guidance blackout and Model 22 concerns triggered the selloff.*

#### Cash Flow & Balance Sheet (FY2024)

| Metric | Value |
|--------|-------|
| Loan Portfolio (held on balance sheet) | ~$600M–$1B (fluctuates with capital market conditions) |
| Cash & Equivalents | ~$600M |
| Total Debt (convertible notes + warehouse) | ~$500M–$700M |
| Adjusted EBITDA | $11M (FY2024), $230M (FY2025) |
| GAAP Net Income | -$129M (FY2024), +$54M (FY2025) |

*Upstart's balance sheet loans fluctuate based on capital market conditions — when institutional demand for personal loan securitizations is low, Upstart holds more loans on its own balance sheet (increasing risk). FY2025's GAAP profitability was a landmark achievement after 2.5 years of losses. However, Q1 2026 returned to a GAAP loss on a guidance cut and Model 22 calibration issues.*

#### Key Ratios (approximate)
- P/E: ~55x (FY2025 GAAP; meaningful only momentarily before Q1 2026 loss) | P/Sales: ~3–4x
- Revenue Growth: +64% (FY2025) | Contribution Margin: ~60–63% | Adjusted EBITDA Margin: ~22% (FY2025)

#### Growth Profile
Upstart's revenue trajectory is one of the most volatile in fintech: $849M (FY2022) → $514M (FY2023) → $637M (FY2024) → $1.04B (FY2025). The FY2022→FY2023 collapse was driven by the rate shock: higher rates crushed consumer borrowing demand and the AI model's conversion rates dropped, shrinking origination volumes. The FY2024→FY2025 recovery reflected rate cuts and model improvements. The company is expanding beyond personal loans into auto (+5x) and HELOC (+5x) to diversify — these two markets are 10x larger than personal loans, representing the true TAM expansion story.

#### Forward Estimates
- FY2026 guidance: Revenue ~$1.4B (+35% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA margin ~21%; CAGR 35% through 2028
- HELOC expansion: multiple states + conversion rate improvements = large fee per loan
- Auto lending: Prodigy dealer platform driving volume growth
- Analyst consensus PT: ~$45 (22 analysts, Buy consensus) vs. current ~$34
- Risk: Q1 2026 guidance blackout (no forward guidance provided) + securities fraud lawsuit = "show-me" period

## Deeper Financial Analysis

The fundamental tier ($1.00) adds 8 dimensions not included here:

- Revenue Breakdown — segment revenue, geographic mix, product-line margins
- Financial Trends — QoQ momentum, leading indicators, inflection points
- Balance Sheet — debt structure, dilution risk, working capital dynamics
- Capital Allocation — ROIC, buyback cadence, reinvestment efficiency
- Earnings Analysis — beats/misses, guidance vs actuals, transcript highlights
- Competitive Positioning — market share, pricing power, peer benchmarks
- Industry Context — TAM, sector tailwinds/headwinds, regulatory backdrop

**API endpoint:** GET /api/v1/research/UPST/fundamental

## Navigation

- Overview: /stocks/UPST
- Financials (this page): /stocks/UPST/financials
- Thesis: /stocks/UPST/thesis
- Investment Memo: /stocks/UPST/memo
- Coverage universe: /stocks